What the Blue Jays Have Not Done

With today’s agreement on a contract extension between the Toronto Blue Jays and R.A. Dickey, the Blue Jays have successfully upgraded every aspect of their roster. They have a new leadoff hitter and shortstop in Jose Reyes. They have a new left fielder in Melky Cabrera. They have competition at second base between Macier Izturis (the favorite) and speedster Emilio Bonafacio, who if he is not at second will serve as an upgrade to Omar Vizquel the former utility player. The National Cy Young award winner is just one piece of a dramatically updated starting rotation: Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. The team retained Anthony Gose as insurance against the continued regression of Colby Rasmus. Brett Lawrie is back at third base and primed for a big season after the experience of the 2012 season. The only spot that you might consider upgrading but has not even been considered by the Blue Jays is designated hitter – where their former stud first baseman now resides. 

Not so long ago, Adam Lind was a top prospect and a player that oozed the potential that fantasy owners lust after. The Blue Jays selected him in the third round of the 2004 amateur draft out of South Alabama University. He performed very well in the minors, showing an ability to hit for both average and power. The Blue Jays took their time working him into the regular lineup. He worked as both a part-time designated hitter and left fielder. In 2009 he earned a fulltime role in the lineup and hit .305/.370/.562 with 35 homeruns which was right in line with projections based on his minor league performances. 

He began the 2010 season right where the 2009 season had ended. But in early May of that season he was placed on the disabled list with a back injury which has been a recurring problem ever since. He got off to a great start to the 2011 season hitting .339, with 15 home runs and 44 RBIs in 46 games until the back injuries hit him again. It seems reasonable to assume that the back injuries have affected his swing at times. In fact early in the 2012 season there was a point where he could not bend over because his back was that stiffened and inflamed. Yet, he was not on the disabled list and was being treated with anti-inflammatory medication. Chris Lund of The Hardball Times wrote an article presenting video evidence of the changes in his swing due to the back injury.  He even suggests that the changes to his swing are causing the back injury to recur.

“The back injury is a significant marker because of the shift Lind has made in his swing. The way he engages his torso and lower half puts greater strain on his back for a player trying to generate enough bat speed to hit for power. As such, we have seen Lind miss games due to wrist and back injuries in the time since the original back problem.”

On May 17^th of the 2012 season, Lind was sent to the minors. He was batting just .186 with three homeruns at the time. Two weeks later he was taken off the 40-man roster. The Blue Jays claimed they wanted Lind to work with minor league hitting instructor Chad Mottola on regaining his stroke. They clearly stated that there was no timetable and that he would not be recalled until they were certain he had earned another opportunity. Lind played 35 games altogether in the minors during the 2012 season. He hit .545/.615/.818 in three games at the double-A level, and .392/.448/.664 in 143 plate appearances for triple-A Las Vegas where he worked with Chad Mottola. On June 24^th the Blue Jays recalled Adam Lind to the major leagues. He was a different player at that point.

Season	Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
2012	Mar/Apr	0.21	0.306	0.333	0.639	0.120	0.238	0.283	75
2012	May	0.14	0.213	0.279	0.492	0.140	0.143	0.222	33
2012	Jun	0.29	0.375	0.714	1.089	0.429	0.200	0.454	192
2012	Jul	0.29	0.329	0.470	0.798	0.182	0.356	0.346	118
2012	Aug	0.30	0.333	0.450	0.783	0.150	0.333	0.341	115
2012	Sept/Oct	0.30	0.342	0.447	0.789	0.146	0.319	0.338	113

Obviously Lind did not transform back into the masher of 2009 but he became productive once again with a wRC+  of over one hundred in each month since. The major difference between these numbers and 2009 is almost entirely in batted ball types (and another stint on the disabled list with back problems). Lind is hitting a lot more groundballs and infield flies. His HR/FB took a turn in the right direction but with Lind hitting so many balls on the ground it does not show in his homerun total. However, if Lind does nothing but maintain his swing and this type of production he could hit 20-25 homers with a solid batting average. 

The key to Lind’s productivity is health. If he can stay off the disabled list and do the necessary stretching and exercise to both stay in shape and prevent his back from tightening it could help him put up numbers more in line with his potential. There is some hope that the big changes to the Blue Jays roster this offseason will serve as motivation.  Adam Lind is no longer the young guy that’s been there the longest. He does not have to be the veteran presence or protect anyone in the lineup or even play defense. All he has to do is hit and until the last couple of seasons he had done that very well his entire life.

The Truth About Jose Bautista's 2010 Season

There is already a lot of debate on message boards about Jose Bautista's place in fantasy drafts going into the 2011 season. So far, drafters seem to be betting on a repeat of 2010's homer barrage. As a third round pick Bautista needs to return a value around $20 to $25 in standard AL-only leagues. He was valued around $32 in 2010.

To properly judge Bautista's ability to repeat his performance I think we need to know what he did differently. Stats tell us part of the story but without a root cause it becomes very easy to predict a large regression, to something closer to his career levels. Not that his career levels are bad. The 2010 season was one of Bautista's few opportunities to be an everyday starter. Using his career fly ball and HR/FB rates and projecting 500 at-bats Bautista comes out at 32 homers. That's probably a good baseline expectation for 2011 but some of us would like to see better.

Bautista owes much of his success to Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy who showed Bautista during the 2009 season that he was late on nearly every pitch. This made him easier to strike out as well as reducing his production rates. Murphy and Bautista worked on fixing his swing throughout the 2009 season and when he received regular at-bats in September of 2009 he hit ten homers from September 6th to the end of the season. Then he played winter ball to cement the changes into his muscle memory. He even changed his off season workouts from a power lifting routine to a regimen based on polymetrics and cardio with the aid of his Dominican trainer, Kelvin Terrero.

Frankie Piliere, a former scout for the Texas Rangers and presently writing for FanHouse.com breaks down the changes far better than I could:

The first part of Bautista's new setup is rather simple. Compared to past years, he is slightly closer to the plate with his back foot. He's not a player that uses the whole field exceptionally well, but he also trusts his hands and knows that he can spin on the best inner-half fastball. So, what he appears to have done is edged his way up on the plate and cut off parts of the zone that pitchers once were able to exploit. It's a subtle one- or two-inch difference, but that small movement up on the plate has allowed him to build on a strength.

Then there is the slight change in his lower half. A little more straight up and down in 2009, Bautista is now in a bit more of a crouch and sitting more on his back leg. His bat angle in his setup is worth pointing out as well. At an angle closer to 45 degrees last season, it's close to flattened out now. Overall, it appears he has made an effort to get his top hand more involved and get his hands moving through the zone quicker in general. To do that, he has put his hands in a higher position and is creating much more leverage. Rather than low and close to his body, we now see him with his hands not just higher but also further away from his body. So, before he even begins his swing, he is in a stronger, loaded position with his hands back.

Take a good look at the way Albert Pujols reads and reacts mechanically to a pitch inside and you'll see some extreme similarities. Pujols does not use a leg kick, but once Bautista's foot is down, the similarities show up in a big way.

"I was getting ready way too late and the ball was beating me to the strike zone," Bautista said. "When I wasn't playing every day, making the adjustments was really tough because I wasn't seeing the results."

The changes outlined above make the statistical changes easier to understand. With that understanding comes the ability to believe Bautista can repeat them or at least come close enough that we can bid on the side of the over of our earlier baseline for homers.

The uptick in contact rate is the easiest to believe. With Bautista getting better looks and improving his timing, it is only natural that he would make better contact. Manager Cito Gaston's call for more balls hit in the air leads to an improved fly ball rate. Better timing and improved contact leads organically to the improved HR/FB which together with more flyballs leads to 54 homeruns.

I'm calling myself a believer in Jose Bautista. I think there will be some regression but not enough to call Bautista a fluke or a potential bust. I think 35-40homers is a good bet and a repeat of 2010 is not out of the question.
Information for this article was gathered from many sources including these great articles:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_lemire/08/04/jose.bautista/index.html
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/why-jose-bautista-is-for-real/
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/24/altered-swing-mechanics-key-to-jose-bautistas-home-run-binge/

Jarrett Hoffpauir: Toronto's Third Baseman

UPDATE: The Toronto Blue Jays have designated Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. I'm not certain why this happened after he seemed to take the demotion in the right spirit. This could be something that his agent instigated but that is purely guesswork. I imagine we'll hear more on this in the next few days.

From the Seattle PI:

Toronto, ON (Sports Network) - The Toronto Blue Jays have designated third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. Encarnacion, 27, was batting .200 with nine home runs and 22 RBI in 37 games this season. He was sidelined from April 15 through May 17 because of a sore right shoulder and missed 30 games during that stretch. Toronto acquired Encarnacion from Cincinnati in a four-player deal at the trade deadline last year. He has a career .257 average with 88 home runs and 308 RBI.

The Toronto Blue Jays sent Edwin Encarnacion to the minors on Sunday. After several years in the majors it must be a major blow to his ego. However disappointed Encarnacion may be, this demotion may ultimately be the best thing for him. He is still young and still holds the potential to become an excellent power-hitting third baseman.

To replace Encarnacion on the 25-man roster, the Blue Jays have recalled 27-year old Jarrett Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir grew up in the St. Louis Cardinals' system. He was fairly successful in a short stint with the major league last year. He hit .250/.438/.417 with one homer in 16 plate appearances. His career minor league line is .288/.366/.427 in 2,509 at-bats. Those are not superstar numbers but they show competence with the bat.

Older players like Hoffpauir typically need to hit well immediately to extend their opportunities. In this case it is more likely to be bad defense than a weak bat that keeps Hoffpauir on the bench. However, in AL-only leagues I think Hoffpauir represents a good risk. He should get to play a few games right away. If he can play decent defense, manager Cito Gaston will have no reason to sit him in favor of the slumping Jose Bautista.

Top Prospect: Adeiny Hechavarria

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The story has been out there for weeks but the Toronto Blue Jays finally made their signing of Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria official. The 21-year old received a four-year, $10-million major-league deal. He expects to be playing in the majors very soon. So soon in fact that he chose the Blue Jays over the Yankees based on the contract extension Derek Jeter is expected to get, while Alex Gonzalez has just a one-year deal.

Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun describes all the events that led to the signing by the Blue Jays. This is a great article that will give you a true sense of the talent level of the player and what the team was thinking when they signed him.

“Scouting is about comparison,” Anthopoulos said. “I wanted Dana there because he’d been scouting director (Washington Nationals) for eight years. Andrew knew shortstops eligible for the draft.”

Beeston’s question was “where would Hechavarria go in the draft — if eligible.”

“Marco felt really strongly about Hechavarria, we thought we could set the competition at our complex,” Anthopoulos said.

Antopoulos’ first impression seeing the 5-foot-11 178-pounder?

“His body, he’s wiry, strong, not an ounce of body fat,” Anthopoulos said. “Watching him walk was impressive. When you look at young shortstops you wonder if they are going to get thicker in the lower half which might cause them to lose a step defensively”

Anthopoulos said the prospect was not as thick as Alfonso Soriano, but had a similar build to Julio Lugo, Edgar Rentaria and B.J. Upton, who is taller.

What the Jays entourage saw was an athletic fielder with quick twitch muscles.

Hechavarria runs a 60-yard dash.

“He was 6.4 or 6-5, but he’d been 6.3 before,” Hernandez said.

The right-handed hitter took batting practice with an inside-out swing, hitting the ball the other way.

Anthopoulos said they did not see him swing and miss a pitch.

Hechavarria faced some of harder throwers from the Jays rookie-class Dominican summer league and free-agent international pitchers.

In a simulated game Hechavarria led off every inning. If he got an extra-base, hit or made an out he returned to first and attempted to steal.

Press Release: Toronto Blue Jays management change

ROGERS today announced that J.P. RICCIARDI will be leaving his position as Senior Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager of the Toronto Blue Jays effective immediately. Mr. Ricciardi joined the Blue Jays in 2001.

"This was a tough decision and a difficult one for me personally as I have enjoyed J.P.'s friendship and his perspective on the game," said Paul Beeston, acting President, and CEO. "J.P. has put an incredible amount of effort into improving the team and he has brought along a number of great young players. However, I feel that it is time for a change and accordingly we have decided to move on."

Alexander Anthopoulos, Vice President, Baseball Operations & Assistant General Manager will fill the role commencing today.

Scott Downs is the New Closer in Toronto

Scott Downs has become the new closer in Toronto after the Blue Jays disabled B.J. Ryan with "muscle tightness" which is actually code for "you suck majorly right now." Coincidentally this took place immediately after Ryan blew his second save of the season. Downs has been ready for an important role on the Blue Jays for a while and Cito Gaston has been waiting for an excuse to make the change since mid-March.

It doesn't seem likely that anyone that reads this blog is in a league where Downs is still available (I've been drooling over him for as long as Cito Gaston has wanted him in the role --since last season in other words) but it is definitely worth checking. He is an extreme groundball pitcher who strikes out nearly a batter per inning (far better than that so far this season) and plays in front of what is an excellent defense. There is nothing not to like here.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2000	Cubs/Expos	5.85	3.71	1.58	1.21	1.67	0.341	0.71	4.97
2000	Cubs	6.03	3.54	1.70	1.24	1.64	0.340	0.71	4.93
2000	Expos	0.00	9.00	0.00	0.00	2.67	0.371	0.63	6.13
2003	Expos	12.00	9.00	1.33	6.00	2.67	0.402	0.58	12.03
2004	Expos	5.43	3.29	1.65	1.29	1.62	0.334	0.63	4.94
2005	Blue Jays	7.18	3.26	2.21	1.15	1.35	0.299	0.72	4.33
2006	Blue Jays	7.13	3.51	2.03	1.05	1.34	0.291	0.73	4.33
2007	Blue Jays	8.84	3.72	2.38	0.47	1.22	0.292	0.84	3.24
2008	Blue Jays	7.26	3.44	2.11	0.38	1.15	0.264	0.87	3.39
2009	Blue Jays	13.50	0.00	13.00	0.00	0.46	0.259	0.80	0.58

Cubs call up Samardzija; Bradley back in right

Pedro, Big Hurt, Edmonds among the free agents still looking for work

Angels should be a bit more worried, but they did call up Brandon Wood

Riske facing possible surgery Tigers designated hitter Marcus Thames out with 'major injury' to rib cage area

Another two-strikeout inning for Zumaya Oblique strain forces Romero to DL

Gaston Considering Scott Downs as Closer

Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher who had a great 2008 season. Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston is concerned that B.J. Ryan may not be ready to close. He would install Downs as the temporary closer until Ryan is ready.
From Yahoo.com

Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston expressed concern about closer B.J. Ryan after he pitched a shaky eighth inning in Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees on Monday. Ryan gave up one run and two hits, including Angel Berroa’s RBI double to left-center. The left-hander, who skipped the World Baseball Classic to work on his mechanics, has a 9.00 ERA this spring. Gaston said he might consider making Scott Downs the closer and putting Ryan “somewhere else for a while and go from there.” He said he wants to see how Ryan does in his final two spring appearances. “I haven’t checked the velocity yet,” Gaston said, “but it looked like it might have been down today. So there are still some concerns about him.”

All Ryan owners should seek out Scott Downs as saves insurance. Even if he doesn't become even the temporary closer, Downs is a quality middle reliever worthy of a roster spot in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.