Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln Bolster the Bucs

Today the Pittsburgh Pirates may be taking a significant step into their future. Outfield prospect Jose Tabata and long-time pitching prospect Brad Lincoln will make their 2010 Major League debuts today against the Washington Nationals. Pirates fans deserve some good news after suffering through the much-hyped decimation of their lineup by Stephen Strasburg during his Major League debut last night.

Jose Tabata became famous as a New York Yankees prospect. It is quite possible that no one would recognize his name without that claim to fame. He was sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for Xavier Nady in 2008. Though he has not developed the power the Yankees expected he has strengthened other areas of his game. In 217 triple-A at-bats Tabata has a line of .323/.384/.442 with three homeruns. Tabata hits the ball on the ground more than 60 percent of his balls in play. That should explain his lack of power numbers. You cannot hit the ball out of the park if it rolls through the infield. He has 25 stolen bases this season and only 6cs so speed has become his game as far as fantasy owners are concerned. He still owns the power potential but it will take some serious re-working of his swing mechanics to bring it out. I expect the Pirates are not very interested in that kind of project. I expect Tabata will soon be owned in most leagues for his stolen base potential.

Brad Lincoln has not been the same pitcher since undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2007. However, he has returned as a different but still effective pitcher. He has decent strikeout numbers in the minors (7.17 K9) but is far from elite. He is not a groundball pitcher (42.6 percent) but has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park. Lincoln was once considered a potential ace. He has not regained that sort of projection but it remains a possibility. I would suggest fantasy owners pick him up only if they are desperate for a good starter or have the room to stash him if he struggles.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting better by small degrees. They still have a long way to go.

NL Outfielders, The Indians Re-Building and Lots More

I'm going to be posting more frequently from now until the end of the season. The posts may be short and heavy on links but they should be of interest for fantasy leaguers in all types of situations.

Will Outfielders Be Scarce in NL-Only Leagues in 2010?
A reader recently commented that the NL outfielder is too deep to select an outfielder like Matt Kemp with the number 1 pick. He went on to say that he would prefer to take Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez with his first pick, then take an OFer like Matt Holliday with his 2nd pick. I am not so sure I agree. I think the NL outfield is more scarce than people think.

The Indians' Re-Building Project
Without breaking any new ground, the Indians have employed all of the available paths in their attempts to add talent back into the organization, enjoying great success in trading their veterans for prospects (netting the likes of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Hafner, LaPorta, Lee, Valbuena, Shoppach, Brantley and even further down, the likes of Carlos Santana in this still-continuing process), moderate success in the International market (signing players like Victor, Peralta, Carmona, and Rafael Perez), and establishing a spotty record at best in FA endeavors (Millwood, Pavano, and Howry…but Jason Johnson, The Looch, Masa, etc., etc.). The draft however, remains the great frustration in the formula as the Indians, with a stated reliance on the development of players to fill holes internally, have continued to significantly augment the organizational talent more productively by trading their veterans for other teams’ prospects, with the great majority of the current Indians’ stable of talent coming to the club via that route.

SB Nation Gets a Facelift
The homepage is looking spiffy but the various team blogs are still sporting that cookie-cutter look that I hate about most blog networks.

WHYGAVS Looks at Which Pirates They Were Wrong About

This year, four immediate players come to mind.

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Garrett Jones
3. Zach Duke
4. Andy LaRoche

Why Gordon Beckham Is Not the Rookie of the Year
There hasn’t been much to dislike about Gordon Beckham’s rookie campaign with the White Sox. He’s sprayed the ball all over the field to a tune of a .808 OPS. His defense has improved with every game he’s played at third base. His at-bat music is awesome. And he plays the game with a confident cockiness that you don’t see from many seasoned veterans.

Who Has the Stuff?
Two components determine how nasty a pitcher’s stuff truly is: velocity and movement. We’ve had radar guns to track the league’s hardest throwers for some time (that would be Joel Zumaya, of course) But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground, with a minimum of 1,000 pitches over the last three years.

Name	StuffRV
A.J. Burnett	-46
Felix Hernandez	-31
Zack Greinke	-26
Edwin Jackson	-26
Ubaldo Jimenez	-26
Chad Billingsley	-23
Brian Wilson	-22
Brandon Morrow	-21
Roy Halladay	-21
Matt Garza	-20
Dave Bush	15
Jeff Suppan	17
Braden Looper	19
Livan Hernandez	20
Greg Maddux	23

Who the Hell is Carlos Rosa?
I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.

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Tommy Hanson, Gordon Beckham, and Andrew McCutchen Arrive

Wednesday was a big day for top prospects. Tommy Hanson, the Atlanta Braves stud pitching prospect was called up and will start for the Braves on Saturday. Gordon Beckham, the stud shortstop prospect of the Chicago White Sox was recalled and will start nearly everyday at a variety of positions. Andrew McCutchen, the stud center field prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates will now roam the major league outfield.

Tommy Hanson and the Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson was called up by the Braves as part of series of moves. They traded for the Pirates' center fielder, Nate McClouth. Then they released 305-game winner, and future Hall-of-Famer, Tom Glavine. It seems this was mostly a cost-cutting measure as Glavine was due a significant bonus when activated. This move looks pretty classless to me. I understand that business is business, but Tom Glavine deserved better from the Braves. These are not the Braves they used to be. Kris Medlen was scheduled to start on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers, but has been moved to the bullpen in favor of Hanson.

Hanson has been dominating at Triple-A Gwinnett. He was clearly ready to take the next step in his development as a potential major league ace. Despite his potential, Hanson is still more likely than not to suffer through the ups and downs that all young starters experience. That said, you would be a fool not to pick him up, especially if you have the ability to stash him on your bench. Milwaukee is an awful tough team to face in your first start. He induces a lot of infield fly balls. He is fairly neutral as to whether he is a ground ball or a fly ball pitcher but take out the infield fly balls and he leans more towards being a worm killer. He does a very good job of keeping the ball in the park.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Braves (R)	9.75	1.57	6.22	0.35	0.224	0.99	0.308	75.20%	2.12
2007	Braves (A)	11.10	3.21	3.46	0.74	0.199	1.05	0.28	73.70%	3.12
2007	Braves (A+)	9.60	4.80	2.00	1.50	0.239	1.42	0.29	74.70%	5.03
2008	Braves (A+)	11.03	2.48	4.45	0.00	0.117	0.65	0.19	80.70%	1.95
2008	Braves (AA)	10.47	3.77	2.78	0.83	0.202	1.13	0.273	75.40%	3.6
2009	Braves (AAA)	12.21	2.31	5.29	0.68	0.176	0.86	0.265	83.30%	2.42

Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates filled the gaping hole left in their lineup and in center field with top prospect, Andrew McCutchen. He was probably ready to get a shot at the major leagues but he is more of a leadoff hitter than a middle of the order player. He's been compared to Ricky Henderson a lot, but that is tremendously overstating things. He should get on base at a decent clip and steal bases, but he won't be the kind of roto-guy that can get you 12 points in steals all by himself. This leaves the Pirates lineup seriously lacking in power hitters.

I understand why the Pirates would want to trade McClouth. They can't really expect him to be a part of their next contending team which is probably still three or four years off. But McClouth was signed to a very reasonable deal. They should have shopped him around rather than trade him so quickly. To trade him for second tier prospects cheats the franchise and the fans. One top prospect would have been a much better deal for them than multiple prospects. Especially when they already have a roster (at more than one level) full of similar players. If the Indians can get Matt LaPorta for a couple of months of CC Sabathia, doesn't a cheap and signed McClouth have a similar value?

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2006	Pirates (A)	8.50%	20.10%	0.356	0.446	0.155	6.5	0.339	0.369
2006	Pirates (AA)	8.50%	26.70%	0.373	0.467	0.16	2.7	0.385	0.378
2007	Pirates (AA)	8.80%	18.30%	0.327	0.386	0.126	6.5	0.298	0.332
2007	Pirates (AAA)	5.60%	16.40%	0.347	0.418	0.104	3.6	0.364	0.337
2008	Pirates (AAA)	11.70%	17.00%	0.372	0.398	0.115	5.4	0.327	0.347
2009	Pirates (AAA)	7.80%	11.90%	0.361	0.493	0.189	8.1	0.329	0.383

Gordon Beckham and the Chicago White Sox

Let me tell you how much I loath Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox manager. A lot. He's a complete idiot. The first thing he does when the White Sox announce that Gordon Beckham is coming up (a move Guillen has been very much against) is try to crash the kid's confidence (I don't think it will work, but that is not the point) by telling everyone that he questions Beckham's ability to play at multiple positions. He also refuses to just give the kid a spot and let him stay there. Instead he'll rotate around the infield so that Chris Getz of all players can stay in the lineup. The White Sox will be much better when they get off their butts and fire Guillen. No manager has ever deserved it more.

To make room on the 25-man roster for Beckham the Sox have designated Wilson Betemit for assignment. Tough to believe they won't find a trading partner to take on Betemit. He could find himself back with the New York Yankees. Beckham is a very disciplined hitter for such a young player. He does not strike out much. He doesn't draw many walks but when you're hitting .458 at Triple-A, why bother? He should hit for decent power (in the 10-15 range) and steal more bases (that's Guillen's thing, stealing bases) than he did in the minors.

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2008	White Sox (A)	7.90%	12.10%	0.365	0.500	0.190	2.7	0.313	0.379
2009	White Sox (AA)	8.70%	16.30%	0.366	0.497	0.197	2.7	0.336	0.391
2009	White Sox (AAA)	0.00%	8.30%	0.440	0.625	0.167	4.1	0.500	0.469

The Pirates Trade Nate McClouth for Prospects!

In an unexpected move for the Pirates, they traded their All-Star center fielder, Nate McClouth to the Atlanta Braves for three prospects. Even more unexpected is that the Braves did not have to part with Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward who are their top prospects. This is not the typical dump deal. The Pirates had McClouth signed to a very reasonable contract.

From Cot's Baseball Contracts:
09:$2M, 10:$4.5M, 11:$6.5M, 12:$10.65M club option ($1.25M buyout)

So the Pirates gave up an inexpensive player who is also considered one of their best players. The prospects are being reported as the following by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette with quotes from Pittsburgh General Manager Neal Huntington:

On trading McLouth: "This may be the toughest decision we have made in my time with the organization. Nate is a quality player and person but, as we have said several times, tough decisions will need to be made as we build and sustain a championship-caliber organization. Nate has worked as hard as any player to become a starting major league Player, proving wrong anyone who may have doubted him. When we signed Nate to a long-term contract, we did so with the intent on having him remain part of our core of homegrown talent. But the quality and quantity of talent we are receiving in this trade moves us closer to our goal of building that sustainable championship-caliber club and compelled us to move a very good player and an outstanding young man."

On Locke: "An intriguing young left-handed starter with the frame, athleticism and stuff to become a quality major-league starting pitcher."

On Morton: "A power right-handed starting pitcher who is excelling at Class AAA. He is close to being ready for the big leagues and has the upside to become a quality major league starting pitcher."

On Hernandez: "A dynamic player who has the potential to become an above-average major league outfielder. He is a quality athlete with plus speed and plays above-average defense. He has bat speed and the upside to develop into a productive table setter."

The Pirates have called up their number one prospect, Andrew McCutchen. He will start in center field. This may be one of the underlying reasons that the Pirates made this trade. Perhaps they believed that McClouth would have a problem with moving out of center field.

I'll have a more complete report on all the prospects involved a bit later.

Five Spring Training Questions Without Answers

There is no longer any doubt that Chase Utley will be ready and in the lineup for the Phillies on Opening Day. His plate discipline and patience should be unaffected. Judging by the small example we've seen in spring training he'll have no problem driving the ball. The only aspect of his game that we have yet to see is the stolen base. If the stolen base is no longer part of Utley's arsenal how will that change his value? He would still be one of the better second basemen in the National League due to his ability to hit for average and power in a loaded lineup.

If Joba Chamberlain can duplicate his performance as a starter in 2008 for the entire 2009 season he will easily be a top ten starter. The question remains if health and the Yankees will allow him to do it. He hasn't had a very encouraging spring for anyone concerned. His velocity has been down and he has appeared to be far less intense than would be ideal. It could be just a spring training issue. His velocity was down last spring and it exploded when he moved to the bullpen. Is this a Joba who is being ultra careful not to get hurt and to preserve his arm for a long season? Or is this a Joba already injured and trying to pitch through pain?

What about the Red Sox pitching staff? There are too many available bodies with another collection of arms that should be ready for the majors in in May/June. Justin Masterson is still in the running for a starting role according to recent reports and so is Clay Buchholz. What will happen with Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz if they are all effective and ready if Masterson and Buchholz are pitching well behind Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jon Lester? Rather than become clearer, this situation has become murkier. Let's not even get into the bullpen...

What is the right price to pay for Alex Rodriguez? There is noise about his rehab going well but when have you ever heard that rehab was going horribly? The cloud of controversey around him seems to get bigger and darker everyday. Even if he comes back and is effective in say June the injury risk will remain huge since effectively his injury has been patched not fixed. Will this make the problem worse in the long run? What if he comes back in 2010 and has lost a step? Minus stolen bases doesn't A-Rod become Aramis Ramirez? Not bad but not someone you want to pay first round value to have.

It probably isn't bugging others as much as me but who the hell is going to be in the Pittsburgh Pirates outfield, especially in left field? Nyjer Morgan is a speedy fourth outfielder who the Pirates seem willing to give an extended opportunity. Andrew McCutcheon is the most talented option but the Pirates will want to send him down long enough to delay arbitration by a year. Steve Pearce deserves an opportunity but doesn't seem to be very appreciated by management considering the way he's been dismissed as a possibility for two straight seasons. Brandon Moss has battled injury and is probably another fourth outfielder ultimately but maybe he's another David Murphy (another Red Sox cast away). The one lock is Nate McClouth who is probably the center fielder but if the Pirates are going to start a mediocre offensive option like Morgan wouldn't make sense to have him in center to maximize the defensive possibilities? I personally believe it may be a mish-mash of option the entire season.

Scouting the Dominican Republic

I am one of those fantasy baseball guys that loves to study prospects. Nothing makes me happier (and increases my hat size) more than having identified players like Jose Reyes, Nate McLouth, and Mike Piazza before anyone else in my leagues. If you are a similar sort than you need to read this series of articles by Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It follows Rene Gayo, Latin American scouting director for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It explores the entire process of scouting and signing international prospects. This is a MUST READ.

Part One: A young Dominican out duels peers who play baseball 'for food'

Part Two: New academy just one part of building talent pool

Part Three: Gayo's focus is on finding talent, but he must battle emotions in process