The Development of Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez was once a top prospect of the New York Mets. He was such a nice prospect that the Minnesota Twins accepted him as the centerpiece of the Johan Santana. This is back when Santana was one of the best starters in the game. He was young but he projected to add power to his already impressive speed on the bases. The Twins never got much out of Gomez who was never better for them than his .291wOBA in 2008. The Twins sent him to the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2010 season for J.J. Hardy and a little cash. 

The Brewers valued his center field defense and since he was just entering his age-25 season, they could reasonably expect some development of his skills with the bat. But that has not really happened. He has not become more disciplined. He still swings at too many pitches off the plate. He has not improved his contact rate. He has not become more patient. His walk rate has actually gotten worse since 2010. What has improved is his power. 

Since 2010, Gomez has seen dramatic increases in his Flyball percentage, HR/FB, and his ISO. Just the increased power alone was enough to make him a slightly above average batter for the first time in his career. In just 415 at-bats Gomez set new career highs in batting average, homeruns, stolen bases, and WAR (3.5). For the first time in his major league career, Gomez did not represent a hole in the lineup. He was an asset. 

Fantasy owners in most leagues made quite a profit by holding Gomez. He could not have cost much as he was trending towards just part-time at-bats and his low batting averages prevented his stolen base totals from increasing or being worth very much. Owners who have him cheaply can keep him with minimal risk because of his low cost. However, he is likely to see his price go through the roof in leagues where he is available, that is probably a mistake. 

Carlos Gomez does not do any of the things that allow an owner to count on a consistent level of performance. He does not make consistent contact. His plate discipline is as real as the Easter Bunny and he refuses to take a walk. He could bat anywhere from .200 to .270 but do you really want him if he goes back to hitting .220? I doubt it.

On the other hand, Miller Park is giving a giant boost to power hitters from both sides of the plate. Over the last three seasons the park has boosted power from the right side of the plate by 28 percent and 30 percent from the left side. While Gomez has clearly benefited from this, it is also clear that his natural power (hopefully) has increased. As long as the at-bats are there for him, Gomez should contribute homeruns and stolen bases. If the average drops back below his career levels (.247) he could find himself back in a part-time role.

Hot Prospect: Lorenzo Cain OF Milwaukee Brewers

With Carlos Gomez placed on the disabled list with a concussion and Jim Edmonds traded to the Cincinnati Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers have re-called Lorenzo Cain to man center field. Because many Brewer fans have come to loath Gomez for his lack of plate discipline and production, Cain has been elevated to savior-status. Fantasy owners must ask if the former 17th round pick has earned it.

Cain was drafted by the Brewers with the 496th overall pick during the 2004 amateur draft out of Madison County, Florida. He was drafted for his raw tools and still requires polish on his plate skills. That sounds like Carlos Gomez but Gomez is like a jack hammer as Cain is to a hammer. But tools are only useful when you know how to use them. This is where Cain has developed a slight advantage.

Cain has shown the ability to exercise patience and draw walks. Unfortunately, he is still very raw at the plate. He has very little power and it would be surprising if he exceeded single digit homer totals on a regular basis. However, his speed is very good which helps him on defense and in stealing bases. Although he is having a strong season, it is very BABIP driven. A speedster like Cain who hits the ball on the ground can often maintain high BABIPs, but Cain still strikes out too often to hit for consistently high averages. Still, a player that can hit for a decent average and on-base percentage and steals bases would seem useful in the eyes of most fantasy owners.

Unfortunately the last two seasons have seen the Brewers give their basestealers the red light. Since being 11th in team stolen bases in 2008 the Brewers finished 28th in 2009 and are presently 21st in MLB. Given the red light, Cain becomes nearly useless as a fantasy player and would contribute very little to a team's offense in all but the deepest of leagues. That still leaves him slightly ahead of Carlos Gomez, despite his superior tools.

Trevor Hoffman Close to Re-Signing with Brewers

According to a report in the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, Trevor Hoffman is very close to re-signing with the Milwaukee Brewers. Both sides have been quoted as interested in another deal so this should come as no surprise to Brewer fans. In fact, ESPN's Buster Olney is saying that the deal is done. A one year deal for $8 million that keeps the closer in a Brewer uniform.

Hoffman had another very solid season despite common belief that his skills were fading at the end of the 2008 season. Hoffman converted 37 of 41 save chances and finished with a 3-2 record, 1.83/2.63 ERA/FIP, 8.00 K9, 2.33 BB9, 0.33HR9, and a 0.85 GB/FB ratio. He should be a solid mid-range closer for fantasy owners in 2010.


Under Not Fantasy Sports But Still Awesome:

Joe Posnanski is my favorite baseball writer. He is the favorite of a lot of serious baseball fans. He has a new book out called "The Machine" which you can buy through the link below. You'll not only be buying a great book but supporting this site (and a great baseball writer) if you use this link. Thanks.

Rob Neyer: (interviewing Joe P.)

Some people root for baseball teams. I root for baseball books, for two reasons. One, a fair number of my friends have written baseball books, so rooting for a book is like rooting for a friend. And two, I've written a few books myself, and know what it's like to pour one's life into something for many months and wind up eliciting hardly a yawn from the Big Wide World. Anyway, I'm rooting for Joe Posnanski's new book, The Machine, about the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, which was officially published today. Joe and I haven't yet met, but I do know he's an easy guy to root for, all the more because I've read his book. Well, I thought I knew Pete Rose and Johnny Bench already -- and I did -- but now I know them better.

There are memorable teams in baseball—and then there are utterly unforgettable teams like the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. From 1972 to 1976, the franchise known as the Big Red Machine dominated the National League, winning four division crowns, three league pennants, and two World Series titles. But their 1975 season has become the stuff of sports legend. In The Machine, award-winning sports columnist Joe Posnanski captures all of the passion and tension, drama and glory of this extraordinary team considered to be one of the greatest ever to take the field. Helmed by Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson, the lineup for the '75 Reds is a Who's Who of baseball stars: Pete Rose, Ken Griffey, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, George Foster, Cesar Geronimo, and Dave Concepcion. Like a well-oiled engine, the '75 Reds ended the regular season with 108 wins and finished a whopping 20 games ahead of their closest division competitor, the Los Angeles Dodgers. But that remarkable year was not without controversy. Feuds, fights, insults, and run-ins with fans were as much a part of the season as hits, runs, steals, and strikeouts. Capturing this rollicking thrill-ride of a story, Posnanski brings to vivid life the excitement, hope, and high expectations that surrounded the players from the beginning of spring training through the long summer and into a nail-biting World Series, where, in the ninth inning of the seventh game, the Big Red Machine fulfilled its destiny, defeating the Boston Red Sox 4-3. As enthralling and entertaining as the season and players it captures, The Machine is the story of a team unlike any other in the sport's glorious history.

Time to Dump Manny Parra?

In my primary NL-only league with Manny Parra I am in second place, two points out of first place. In a 16 team mixed league, I'm in fourth place with Manny Parra, second place without him. In the mixed league I have no choice but to hang on to him until he is either disabled or killed by some aggravated fantasy owner. (Jon is in no way endorsing such a move, regardless of his rising level of frustration -- legal department) But in the NL-only league I was holding him because I had hopes that he might turn it around. My hopes are fading fast.

A lot of my faith in Manny Parra developing into a frontline starter was based on his strong finish in 2008. Combined with his great scouting reports and glowing resume I figured I couldn't go wrong. However, since joining the major league team, Parra has seen his control degrade from good to horrid. He is still good at inducing groundballs but the homeruns still kill him. You can make the case that his luck is just awful based on three years of FIPs significantly lower than his Earned Run Averages. He has also had an elevated BABIP in the majors, he has never had one below .332 in the majors. But how much is enough? How long should you...how long CAN you wait before you have to dump a player like this for the sake of your season?

We've just passed the one third marker of the season and for me that is when worrying about slow starts and poor performances is kicked up a notch. This is when I'm doing everything I can to get value for the David Ortiz on my rosters (not that I actually rostered Ortiz, large, older players coming off of sub par seasons are not usually high on my draft list). I plan to do one round about the members of my NL-only to see if I can dump Parra on them. If not I'll FAAB the best arm on the free-agent list. I still believe in Parra's future, but I'd rather win than wait for it to happen.

Manny Parra Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Brewers (A+)	10.04	5.27	1.91	0.66	0.234	1.45	0.316	69.40%	3.84
2006	Brewers (AA)	8.33	2.30	3.63	0.00	0.227	1.09	0.305	63.90%	2.31
2007	Brewers (AA)	9.04	2.90	3.12	0.22	0.235	1.19	0.317	73.80%	2.59
2007	Brewers (AAA)	8.65	2.42	3.57	0.35	0.170	0.85	0.225	79.70%	2.82
2007	Brewers	8.89	4.10	2.17	0.34	0.252	1.41	0.332	69.20%	3.35
2008	Brewers	7.97	4.07	1.96	0.98	0.279	1.54	0.337	71.70%	4.16
2009	Brewers	8.01	5.65	1.42	1.10	0.299	1.83	0.359	62.40%	4.90

Trevor Hoffman and the Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen

Thanks to a strain in his rib cage it appears that the Brewers slightly used closer, Trevor Hoffman, will not be available to start the season. This of course kicks speculation about the next in line into overdrive. A serious oblique injury (and it appears that Hoffman's is serious) can take four to six weeks or more to heal properly. The wise money should be on the 41-year old coming in on the long side of that healing time.

From MLB.com:

"It's looking dim," manager Ken Macha said. Macha made that pronouncement after head athletic trainer Roger Caplinger told him that Hoffman won't be back on a mound for another week or so. Because he would probably need to work a few side sessions before getting into a game, it's increasingly likely that Hoffman will be sidelined, and perhaps on the disabled list, when the Brewers play their regular-season opener on April 7 in San Francisco.

Ken Macha seems to prefer right-hander Seth McClung as the temporary replacement. McClung has improved significantly since joining the Brewers and has the stuff to close. Many fantasy analysts have projected Carlos Villanueva as the next in line to close. Villanueva showcased awesome skills as the 2008 season came to an end and many expect him to breakout this season. Unfortunately, Villanueva has pitched poorly in camp, bad enough for Macha to announce publically that he has been disappointing thus far.