Hot Stove Junkie: Giancarlo Stanton and More

The Cyborg Steve Austin has nothing...

...on the 325 Million Dollar Man!

The 325 Million Dollar Man - Giancarlo Stanton

You can make a pretty solid case for Giancarlo Stanton as the number one pick in a fantasy draft. He is the most reliable source of power going into the 2015 season and the other possibilities are all flawed. Miguel Cabrera is coming off serious ankle surgery. Mike Trout may be the MVP but he was not significantly better than Stanton and his rising strikeout rate worries me. Paul Goldschmidt is coming off an injury shortened season. I love McCutchen but I'll take Stanton's superior power over Cutch's overall stats. Adam Jones isn't better. In Seattle, Cano does not have the power I want in the first overall pick. I don't think I'll take Jose Altuve or Michael Brantley with the number one pick. I doubt Victor Martinez duplicates his 2014 season next year and a DH makes a poor choice at number one. I suppose you could make a case for Kershaw but offense is in too much of a decline to take a pitcher with the first pick.

Ol' Mike Answers the Tough Questions Well

Stanton Could Earn His Huge Contract

Loria Promises More Moves to Come

Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke sign with the Chicago White Sox

You have to wonder how happy Jose Abreu is to have the team sign another first baseman. Obviously one of them will be the designated hitter. LaRoche has the greater defensive reputation but is clearly in decline and at 35-years old is the more appropriate choice for DH duties. At 29 I doubt Abreu is ready to quite playing the field.

In any case I expect LaRoche to put up some good numbers playing in US Cellular Field or whatever they call the White Sox park these days. You can expect LaRoche's power numbers to be maximized, though that did not happen for the last power hitter the White Sox signed away from the Nationals. 

The LaRoche move comes just a days after signing left-hander Zach Duke to a three-year contract. Duke has re-invented himself as a relief pitcher and was very good for the Milwaukee Brewers during the 2014 season. He is not just a lefty specialist. His changes to both his mechanics and pitch mix dramatically improved his strikeout rate. That in additional to the boost usually provided to a pitcher moving from the rotation to the bullpen has made him a new man.

The White Sox are also looking at Melky Cabrera. They can certainly use the upgrade in left field and he fits near the top of the order in front of Abreu and LaRoche most likely.If they can pull that off and the young guys continue to develop in the right direction, the White Sox could be contenders this season.

The White Sox are In It to Win It

They Love the Zach Duke Deal on the South Side

Beyond the Box Score on the LaRoche Sigining

BTBS on Zach Dukes Metamorphosis

The Braves Trade Jason Heyward to the Cardinals

The Braves tried to sign Heyward to a long term contract and were unsuccessful last year. Apparently his price was high enough that they decided to part with him rather than risk receiving just a draft pick for him. Shelby Miller has ace potential and despite his poor season, showed signs of rebounding in his last few starts. The Braves have always been better at developing pitchers than they are position players and I think they are likely to get the best of Shelby Miller.

The Braves have been weird with their hitting philosophies and the constant rotation of hitting coaches probably did not help. They seem to stress contact over all else and while I can see the value in that it is not always playing to the strength of a particular player. Heyward's contact rate has seen a steady rise even as his power has declined. I'm betting the Cardinals are the beneficiaries of Heyward putting it all together and regaining some of that lost power.

The Sports Illustrated Analysis of the Braves/Cardinals Deal

The Price for Justin Upton is High

The Braves Also Traded INF Tommy LaStella for Reliever Arodys Vizcaino

I am still confused about this deal. LaStella seemed like the cheap, solid defense, top of the order type that the Braves needed while they paid off the Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton blunders. Are they planning to jump Jose Peraza to the majors? The Braves have successfully jumped players like this in the past. Or maybe they are just counting on future trades filling their new hole at second base. I do like Phil Gosselin more than most and can see him getting an opportunity to start the season at second base.

After trading Jordan Walden the re-acquisition of Arodys Vizcaino makes some sense. Vizcaino has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness but still has the potential to be a top relief ace. The trade did bring them more cap room in the International Prospect Market but that knowledge is of little use to fantasy owners but helpful in the re-building effort.

The most interesting part of the deal is what this means for the Cubs who already seemed to have an middle infield surplus.There has been tons of speculation that this is the precursor of the Cubs moving one of their big three shortstops - Starlin Castro, Javier Baez or Addison Russell. But ignoring that possibility the LaStella trade makes some sense for the Cubs. At worst he becomes a bench player with the contact and top of the order skills that some of the bigger prospects do not have. He could also buy the Cubs a bit more time at second base. Baez struggled to make adjustments in the majors and could use some more time in the minor leagues to work on his defense and cutting down on the strikeouts.

Dave O'Brien Looks at the LaStella Trade

Braves Fans Don't Have a Problem With It

Looking at the Cubs Trade Prospects

The Twins Win the Bidding for Korean Lefty Hyeon-jong Yang

((I am now hearing that this report may not be true and that it is actually the Texas Rangers that won the bidding. Either way there will be a 30-day window for negotiating the actual contract. Unless his KBO team pulls the posting over the small posting fee.))

The Twins still need to sign Yang but they seem to have a reasonable chance of getting that done. Yang is viewed as a solid mid-rotation starter but has the potential to be a bit better than that. If he pitches up to his potential he is the sort of player that can be the ace of a small market team.He is the type of pitcher that still makes for a decent sleeper. There has not been much hype and the Twins won the bidding so the scrutiny on the player is likely to be minimal.

Yang Won the KBO Equivalent of the Cy Young Award 


Billy Butler signs with the Oakland Athletics 

I understand the skepticism that a lot of A's fans have been expressing over this signing and I also understand why the Royals fans were not very disappointed. However, I believe that this will ultimately be a solid investment by the Athletics. First, the value of even league average offense is way up in real leagues as it is in fantasy. Butler does not have to repeat his best seasons to get there and I think his power will bounce back a bit. The Royals were constantljjnuhy7uy y messing with Butler. Trying to get him to hit for more power and getting mixed messages from their He did curb his ground ball trend a bit this year it just did not translate into his HR/FB rate. Also, despite their late season slump and the Cespedes trade, the Athletics have a much better lineup and Butler should benefit in RBI at least and possibly even in runs scored (assuming he doesn't try stealing many bases). For the small investment it will take fantasy owners, Butler should be worth the risk.

Cliff Corcoran Does Not Like the Deal

The Shortage of Right-Handed Power Hitters

The Dodgers and Rays make a Four-Player Deal

It was not the trade hot stove junkies have been dying to see but it was interesting. The Rays sent reliever Joel Peralta and minor-leaguer Adam Liberatore to Los Angeles for rookie Jose Dominguez and minor-league right-hander Greg Harris. For the Dodgers this is about lengthening their bullpen. Peralta is a solid option for the sixth and seventh innings. Liberatore gets lots of strikeouts and I am certain President Andrew Friedman knows exactly what he is getting. The Rays meanwhile are making room for younger and cheaper players.

From the Process Report:

The Joel Peralta era ends on a bittersweet note. The franchise leader in pitcher appearances had his club option picked up earlier this month but will pitch for a new team (old boss) next season. Even at his advanced age, the right-hander is an above-average reliever despite claims otherwise. He continues to post strikeouts in bunches, miss bats his splitter and controlled the strike zone much better last season. Limited natural ability lends to a thin margin for error. When he is off, he can have stretches of ineffectiveness; however, the overall package – including clubhouse leadership – is a net positive. The fact that the Rays were able to flip his 39-year-old arm for a pair of young pitchers is a testament to his ability. It also means his impact on the club could linger long past his playing days. 

The Rays Lose Another Cog to the Twins: Pitching Coach Neil Allen. 

The Tigers Re-Sign Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez is a good hitter and is likely to remain a good hitter for the length of his four-year $68 million deal. The question that some will ask is how likely is Martinez to maintain his 2014 power numbers. Martinez has typically been a high-average hitter that utilizes the entire field in his approach. In 2014 he still hit for average but was more often pulling the ball which led to his increased power. If he keeps up that approach maybe the power will stick around.

The Tigers Need to Win Now

Victor Martinez was Fantasy MVP for Some

The Blue Steal Russell Martin Away From the Cubs and Dodgers

Even if Martin regresses back to his career levels with the bat I'll be giving an uptick to the Blue Jays pitching staff based on just his defense and pitch framing skills.That said I expect Martin to be a solid option for fantasy owners. If nothing else he usually hits for a non-disastrous batting average (even easier as the league batting average continues to fall) and some power. His former speed on the bases is evaporating but not entirely gone. He may toss in a few stolen bases to help pad your stats.

Clint Hurdle told this to ESPN regarding Martin:

"He has the ability to make every pitcher feel like he has an opportunity to be the best he's ever been that day on the mound … He brings an edge in the clubhouse and an edge when guys are in there lifting [weights]. Three hours before the game, he's dragging out guys who've never kicked a soccer ball in their life. Now they're out there kicking a ball. He's like the Pied Piper."

Jay Jaffe Examines the Deal for Russell Martin 

A Big Contract for a Worthy Player

Radhames Liz signs with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Liz just signed a major league deal for two years and $3 million. He supposedly had quite a few offers from teams in MLB and Japan. The Pirates matched his best offer and he chose them over moving to Japan. Liz was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America while coming up with the Orioles. He has always had fantastic stuff but strugles with his command. He re-invented himself in the KBO to the extent that the Blue Jays brought him back to MLB on a minor league deal and he pitched ok, if not well enough to warrant a call-up to the majors. The Pirates pitching gurus - Jim Benedict and Ray Searage, have been very successful re-building the careers of pitchers the last few years. Liz has power stuff (he can hit 100mph) and has a killer curve. I'd buy him for a buck.

Links of Interest to Fantasy Owners


Max Scherzer Could Be Plan B for the Washington Nationals

The Dodgers Are Dangling Matt Kemp and Could Actually Deal Him

The Red Sox seem very interested in Yoan Moncada

Sandoval Leaning Towards Boston

But the Padres May Have Made the Best Offer
The Yankees Build Up Farm Through International Free-Agents

The Padres are Desperate to Improve Their Lineup

The Reds could trade Jay Bruce

The Pirate Clear Space for Pedro Alvarez to Play First Base

The Future of Nelson Cruz

The Mets May Not Get The Expected Return for Jon Niese

Execs Believe David Robertson will Get His Money

More Hot Stove Junkie

The next Cuban Sensation: Shortstop Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

Wow, did a lot happen this week or what? My favorite bit of news is on the next Cuban Sensation up for bid. He is 19-year old shortstop (and potential second baseman, third baseman or center fielder) Yoan Moncada. This kid is said to be the real deal and definitely worthy of a spot on your dynasty league roster or a minor-league pick in keeper leagues. He is said to have plus speed, plus power and skill with the bat to go with a rocket arm and soft hands in the field.

This Ben Badler quote from Baseball America cinches the deal for me:

How good is Moncada? He has more upside than Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who just reached a $72.5 million deal with the Red Sox. He’s better than Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas... If Moncada were eligible for the 2015 draft, he would be in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick. Gourriel and Despaigne would be safer bets, but there’s no player in Cuba with Moncada’s combination of youth, tools and hitting ability. 

FanGraphs.com: The Yoan Moncada Showcase

Yoan Moncada may force MLB to move to an International Draft

Baseball America's Profile on Yoan Moncada

The Tampa Bay Rays Trade Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson seemed to defy expectations his first few years in the majors with ERA totals that looked much better than the various ERA predictors such as FIP and xFIP  revealed. Then injuries and disappointment dominated the last two seasons - as many experts predicted. What do the Arizona Diamondbacks see in Hellickson? They seem to have a vast collection of talented starting pitchers that have disappointed in one way or another, even before adding Hellickson to their numbers. They also have a few highly thought of pitching prospects.

I am confident that Hellickson can be solid mid-rotation starter for the D'backs. I think injuries are mostly to blame for the poor performance the last two seasons. And even if he is not the pitcher he appears to be in his rookie and sophomore seasons, he was never really projected to be terrible. His strikeout rate  has been ticking upward and his Swinging Strike rate is indicating that improvement is real. The uptick in strikeouts has also led to an improving FIP. The move to the NL should only help his strikeout rate improve further and with a solid defense behind him I think he will be quite fantasy worthy for a low investment.

Diamondbacks fans are not thrilled by the trade

Rays fans seem quite a bit happier...

Rays fans examine Hellickson just before the deal took place

New York Newsday's Controversial Steroid Story

Anthony Bosch has accused agent Scott Boras of attempting to cover up the positive test by Manny Ramirez a few years ago. At this point in the on-going steroid/PED story I do not know what to believe. It would be easy to believe that everyone involved in any way is dirty and that no one undeserving has been smeared but I cannot force myself to believe it. I will be very happy when all facets of this story disappear forever.

The New York Newsday Story

Scott Boras statement on the accusations (added to the Newsday Story after the fact)

Mets GM Sandy Alderson has nothing good to say about Scott Boras

The 2014 MLB Season Awards

Despite having his worst full season in the majors Mike Trout finally won the American League MVP award. Though a .287/.377/.561 batting line with 36 homeruns and 16 stolen bases would be a career year for most players. For fantasy owners I'm sure the stolen base total was disappointing and perhaps a few owners were counting on a .300-plus batting average to pull up the rest of their team batting stats. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs.com looks at how Trout was pitched in the second half of the season when he had a 30 percent strikeout rate. Personally I believe he will make the necessary adjustments to how he is pitched and continue to be one of the better players in the American League for another decade or so.

If I had a vote I would have given it to Giancarlo Stanton (he lets me call him Mike) for the National League MVP. I do not have a problem with pitchers winning the MVP award but I think that should only happen when the pitcher has an historic season and there is not a worthy performance by a batter. I do not believe that was the case this season. Stanton was outstanding this season and when you consider the overall decline of offense in MLB it was even more outstanding. A season of 6.1 fWAR, a 159wRC+, and 37 homeruns is a more than worthy MVP. The Miami Marlins were even in contention until late in the season thanks largely to his performance.

From MLBTradeRumors:

Trout’s 420 points were the most possible, and rounding out the top 10 in the AL were Victor Martinez (229), Michael Brantley (185), Jose Abreu (145), Jose Bautista (128), Robinson Cano (124), Nelson Cruz (102), Josh Donaldson (96), Miguel Cabrera (82) and Felix Hernandez (48). The full ballot is available in this Google doc from the BBWAA.

Kershaw edged out Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, finishing with 355 points to 298. Behind Kershaw and Stanton in the top 10 were Andrew McCutchen (271), Jonathan Lucroy (167), Anthony Rendon (155), Buster Posey (152), Adrian Gonzalez (57), Adam Wainwright (53), Josh Harrison (52) and Anthony Rizzo (37). The full ballot is available in this Google Doc from the BBWAA.

 Jose Abreu finished fourth in the MVP race and was the first ROY for the Chicago White Sox since Ozzie Guillen in 1985. After a huge debut season it is tough to imagine him doing much better, but if you look at his season splits it might change your mind. hit .292/.342/.630 with an absurd 29 homeruns in 351 PA. The second half he batted .350/.435/.513 with seven homers in 271 PA. The obvious takeaway might be the decline in homerun rate. But Abreu played through a hamstring injury for most of the second half and hit .350 while major league pitchers were doing everything in their power to either get him out or keep him from clearing the bases with one swing. I think there is another MVP worthy season coming from Jose Abreu.

I was a little surprised that Jake deGrom was such an over whelming winner over Billy Hamilton. However he is more than worthy of the award. The first New York Met ROY since the great Dwight  Gooden in 1984. deGrom is essentially the product of a good arm on an intelligent and hard-working player receiving great coaching and rubbing shoulders with talented veterans.

Eno Sarris Breaks down deGrom's experience and development in the Minor Leagues (a must read)

Hamilton's stats certainly were not as good for fantasy purposes in the second half but there were signs that he was improving as a baseball player which can only be good for his current and future owners. His defense was outstanding and he showed guts continuing to go out there and battle. Hamilton has shown the ability to adjust in the minors and I think he will adjust again to the barrage of inside fastballs he saw in the second half. Unless you paid an absurd amount for him he should be worth keeping around just for the stolen bases as he continues to improve as a player.

From MLBTrade Rumors:

The Angels’ Matt Shoemaker (40 points), the Yankees’ Dellin Betances (27), the Astros’ Collin McHugh (21) the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka (16) rounded out the top five in the AL voting.  Billy Hamilton finished second in the NL balloting with 92 points, well ahead of the Cardinals’ Kolten Wong (14), the Phillies’ Ken Giles (8) and the Diamondbacks’ Ender Inciarte (4).

Ken Giles made an impression this season

From MLBTradeRumors:

Kershaw was a unanimous winner, with Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright finishing second and third, respectively. Madison Bumgarner finished in fourth place (obligatory caveat: votes were due before the postseason commenced), while Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Doug Fister, Jake Arrieta, Craig Kimbrel, Stephen Strasburg and Henderson Alvarez rounded out the ballot. The award marks Kershaw’s third Cy Young in four seasons.

Kluber, a breakout star with the Indians, edged out Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, who finished second. Kluber received a total of 169 points in the voting, while Hernandez received 159. Rounding out the ballot were Chris Sale, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, Phil Hughes, Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Kluber posted an 18-9 record with a 2.44 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in 235 2/3 innings.

The Re-Building Braves

The Dodgers were not the only team to revamp their front office this fall. They brought Roy Clark back to the organization and hired Gordon Blakeley as Special Assistants to the General Manager. Brian Bridges was promoted to scouting director. Not to mention being John Hart on as the General Manager. The Braves have entered if not quite a re-building period - it is at least a period of re-structuring that extends from the front office to the playing field.

Baseball America outlines the front office and scouting department changes the Braves have made.

John Hart denied that the Braves were shopping Evan Gattis despite the abundance of rumors to the contrary. The inexperienced Christian Bethancourt will be the primary starting catcher. If the Braves are not marketing Gattis they will need to find a place for him to play, which is likely what has gotten the media and other GMs speculating.

“We are coming in with the idea that we don’t have to trade anybody,” Hart said. “We have not made a call (to see if a team is interested in any player). We have received calls on people; we haven’t had any conversations yet. That (Gattis rumor) is absolutely inaccurate. And quite frankly, I think anybody that says that – if you look, I’ve got two corner outfielders who’ve got one year left (before free agency), and I’ve got one potential corner outfielder (Gattis) that’s got four years left (under contractual control).”

Despite this statement it seems almost certain that the Braves will deal one of their corner outfielders before the season. I am sure they would prefer to trade B.J. Upton, but that is extremely unlikely to happen. That means either Jason Heyward or Justin Upton, if not both, will be traded for some combination of prospects and pitchers they can control for several years.the Braves should be able to get whatever they need. There are so few quality and experienced bats available in trade, they should have multiple options.

But then there is this:

“Everybody mentions the two outfielders (as trade targets), but there’s other pieces on this club that we might consider (trading),” John Hart said. “There’s some bullpen pieces below Kimbrel. We’ve got some pieces that people like, it’s just a matter of trying to the right guys back where you’re going to say, this will allow us to win, or at least allow us to compete. That’s where we are this early in the winter. And I think it’d be a shame on us if we didn’t go out and explore that avenue first. Go out and see if we can make a deal to get pieces that we like.That will, even though we’ve got to subtract something, will still give the club a chance to compete.”

GM John Hart on the Gattis Rumors

The Braves GM of the Future

The Yankees are Making Moves

Pending a physical, the Yankees have agreed to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with free agent outfielder Chris Young. It sounds like the yanks will also attempt to re-sign their closer, David Robertson. but Cashman's recent comments also make it sound as if negotiations will either progress quickly or the Yankees will move on and accept the draft pick as compensation.

Brian Cashman on the 2015 Closer

Cashman on the Justin Wilson Acquisition

Chris Young Re-Signed

The Yankees Outfield

More A-Rod Crap

Other Links of Potential Interest to Fantasy Owners

The Royals are interested in acquiring 1B Ryan Howard

More on the Dodgers new methodology.

Pablo Sandoval is a hot commodity

The Angels have targeted Max Scherzer

The Cardinals have money to spend

Baseball America on Cuban Shortstop Roberto Baldoquin

Rays Montreal Rumors

A Big Day For Baseball's Future - Strasburg and Stanton Debut

Today is a big day for baseball. Stephen Strasburg makes his debut with the Washington Nationals against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The game will be shown on the MLB Network tonight and I'm betting every baseball fan in the country will be tuning in. However, there is more making this an exciting day for baseball. Michael Stanton will be making his major league debut with the Florida Marlins. The only fans not watching Strasburg tonight will be Stanton's fantasy owners who are tuning into Stanton's debut against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg has thrown 57.3 innings with a 2.04 FIP in the minors. He is not just a strikeout pitcher. In addition to his 10.20 K9 (combined Double-A and Triple-A) he also owns a 64.9 groundball percentage. He's probably been ready to pitch in the majors for more than a year. But without his stint in the minors his first MLB start would not have nearly the impact on baseball and Washington Nationals that it will tonight. I expect him to pitch well. He won't necessarily be Tim Lincecum right off the bat. He will be facing the very best hitters in the world now. Even the Pirates are better than anything he saw in the minors or in college.

Michael Stanton

In 189 at-bats in Double-A, Stanton has hit .312/.443/.730 with a .328 BABIP. He has nice batted ball splits, more than 50 percent of his batted balls are fly balls. He kills lefties but does not have handedness issues. He has hit much better at home than on the road. This has led some to believe he is the product of a nice home environment but I don't buy that and neither do the Marlins. He could probably do with a little time at triple -A (and hell, he may still get it) but I think he will hit for a decent batting average and tons of power. He is still available in a lot of leagues. You should pick him up right now, you may not have the chance again.

2010 MLB Draft

The draft continues today. You can check it out in progress at MLB.com/live. Yesterday had a few surprises including Bryce Harper being announced as an outfielder rather than a catcher. The Chicago Cubs went their own way by drafting Hayden Simpson. Zigging when they Zag has been the habit of Scouting Director Tim Wilken.

Tim described the kid physically as a cross between Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum while acknowledging he has a long way to go to reach that status. Like Lincecum, Simpson said on a conference call tonight that he uses his whole body to pitch, easing stress on the arm.

The 21-year-old Simpson was 13-1 this year with a 1.81 ERA in Division II ball. Simpson said his best pitch is his slider and that he also possesses a four-seam fastball, a circle change and a 12-to-6 curveball.

The New York Yankees stunned many by drafting high school shortstop/RHP Cito Culver with the 32nd pick of the draft. He is an okay prospect. He was just picked about 100 names earlier than anyone expected.

On the mound, he was 90-91, which really isn’t bad for a guy with that kind of frame. What you didn’t see with Culver was a lot of physical projection for height, which would make his future as a right-handed pitcher pretty nominal. On one play, a kid fouled a pitch back behind the screen. Culver came off the mound, full speed, and caught up to his catcher deep in foul territory. It was a throwaway play to some scouts, but it showed me reflexes, his first step and his acceleration. The guy is an athlete.

One of my favorite picks of the draft went to the Atlanta Braves. Scouting Director Tony DeMacio selected Matt Lipka, a high school shortstop from Texas. The Braves project him as their future leadoff hitter.

When DeMacio went to suburban Dallas' McKinney High School last month, he was thoroughly impressed with the cerebral approach taken by an athletic shortstop whose will to win complimented the speed that had made him such a threat as a leadoff hitter and two-time Class 4-A All-State wide receiver in the football hotbed of Texas. Thus when it came time for the Braves to make their first selection, the 35th overall, in this year's First Year Player Draft on Monday night, DeMacio confidently selected Matt Lipka, the 18-year-old shortstop who had developed into one of the two multi-sport superstars that made McKinney High a popular destination this past year for college-football recruiters and baseball scouts. "He's a kid that's going to show up for you every day," DeMacio said. "He's going to make everybody else better around him. He's a winning-type guy. He's just a great, great young man and we're just very pleased to have him."