The First Pick of the 2013 Fantasy Draft Is...

My friend Derek Ambrosino at the Hard Ball Times recently posted an article called "Who is 2013's Top Dog?" which debates which player should be drafted first in re-draft mixed leagues this season. To his eyes there are only three candidates - Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.

I agree that those three should be candidates. However, I will add three more names for consideration - Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen. Kemp, Cano and McCutchen are generally going with the fourth, fifth and sixth picks in one order or another but a case can be made that they are each better selections than at least two of Derek's choices.

Before jumping into each player's qualifications I think it is important to decide what is important to acquire in a first round pick, especially an early one. The first pick in the draft would ideally have a track record of success, annual statistics that typically place the player within the top 10-15 players overall, a clean bill of health, a secure position on his team and contribute to five categories. If you are lucky, that player will also be in his prime years of performance and own the potential for further upside in his statistics.

Ryan Braun is at the top of Mock Draft Central's ADP Report.  Braun won the 2011 MVP award and has been one of the top offensive players in baseball for years and contributes to all five offensive categories. He was worth $50 in 2012 according to BaseballHQ.com values. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last six years and 50-plus the last two seasons. He has averaged over 600 at-bats the last five years. He is definitely in the prime of his career and signed to a long term contract by the Milwaukee Brewers. The only real negative is regarding the suspicion of PED use and the possibility of suspension. After beating the rap before the 2012 season, Braun was one of the names connected to the BioGenesis Clinic. If Braun missed 50 games due to suspension would he still have first round value? Probably, but I certainly would not be happy to have used the first pick of the draft on him.

Miguel Cabrera is ranked second by MDC's ADP Report. He won the 2012 MVP Award and achieved the Triple Crown last season. Cabrera has been worth at least $30 in seven of the last eight years. HQ valued him at $42 in 2012 and at no less than $36 the last three seasons. He has batted no worse than .324 with 30 homers in each of the last four seasons. He has not had fewer than 548 at-bats since 2004. He is still just 29-years old and in the prime of his career. Last season he moved back to third base so he qualifies at a premium position. Cabrera does not steal bases and that is pretty much the only flaw in his game. If you are hunting for a problem you might knock him for some occasional issues related to alcohol but he has not had an issue with that in the last few years.The lack of stolen bases is unfortunate but Cabrera is still an excellent option.

Mike Trout was the stat guy choice for the 2012 MVP. He had a Rookie-of-the-Year season better than anyone else has ever had. He hit for average, for power, scored runs, drove in runs and stole bases almost at will. BaseballHQ valued him at $49 in 2012 and $0 in his 123 at-bat audition in 2011. If Trout did everything at the same rate he did in 2012 over the entire 2013 season he would easily be the number one choice, almost without debate since he would gain more than a month of at-bats at that MVP level rate of performance. many analysts have pointed out that even with some significant regression to his 2012 statistics Trout could still be an easy first round value with an extra 100-plus at-bats added to his season totals. However, Trout, prior to the 2012 season had never displayed the 30-homer power he achieved in 2012. In fact he had never hit more than the 17 he hit at three combined levels in 2011. As Derek pointed out, it isn't unusual for a young player to show big improvement but it is not typical to make such a huge advance in a player's rookie season.Trout may be a great player in the making but one huge season does not make him an ideal first overall pick.

Matt Kemp was the 2011 MVP Runner-up to Ryan Braun. He was given an astounding value of $62 by BaseballHQ in 2011 but just $24 in his injury-plagued 2012 season. Kemp began the 2012 season with a monster month of April but an early May hamstring strain (which he tried to play through) basically put him out of action until the middle of July. Kemp has been worth at least $31 in four of the last six seasons and no less than the $21 he earned in 2010. He usually contributes in all five offensive categories and is one of the rare players capable of achieving 40-plus in both homers and steals. The Dodgers have him signed for the next several years. Kemp is considered a crucial part of the Dodger's core. A player coming off an injury-shortened season is not an ideal first overall pick but Kemp's upside potential is as high or higher than any of the players under consideration.

Andrew McCutchen is just 26-years old but already considered one of the best in the game. He has shown power gains three years running. He has fantastic speed and has spoken publicly this spring regarding his desire to improve his base-stealing techniques.The coveted 30/30 season could be in his future.He was worth $43 according to HQ in 2012 and at least $27 in each of the last three seasons. He hasn't had fewer than 570 at-bats in the last three seasons. He contributes to all of the offensive categories. McCutchen doesn't have a long track record but in his four major league seasons has shown steady improvement while providing excellent fantasy stats. Of the players under consideration, McCutchen has the highest probability of a huge breakout season. None of the MDC drafters took McCutchen before the third pick of the draft but he is capable of delivering a season with that level of value.

Robinson Cano is in the prime of his career and the best player on the New York Yankees. He is an annual MVP candidate. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last three seasons and has done so while manning second base, a premium fantasy position. Unfortunately, he does not steal many bases. His value comes from very high batting averages and 30-homer power. Statistically he is probably a more appropriate pick for the mid to late picks of the first round but for those owners that prefer to use early picks on scarce positions Cano is a very safe option.

The choice here is for Ryan Braun but as Spring Training continues and Matt Kemp proves himself healthy the decision could change.For now I believe the MDC drafters have it nearly correct. The key difference is that I would not choose Mike Trout in a re-draft league with a top five pick over the other candidates listed here.

A Quick Guide to Calculating Inflation and Preparing a Freeze List

What is the deal with inflation in fantasy leagues? Though the math is relatively simple, inflation in fantasy leagues is one of those things that never fails to confuse and even irritate fantasy owners. Many owners do not bother to calculate it, with varying levels of success. However I think it is important to do so.

Some Terms to understand

Cost - The dollar amount attached to a player on a roster. (Albert Pujols cost $40)
Value - The amount a player is worth to a team in your league. (Albert Pujols is valued at $51 by BaseballHQ)
Profit - The difference between a players Cost and his Value. (If Pujols cost $40 and is valued at $51 his profit is $11)

What is Draft Inflation
Draft inflation is the cost beyond a players perceived value in an auction caused by budget dollars that exceed the value of the available player pool. A player's inflated value is his projected price on draft/auction day with inflation accounted for. It is important to know this value so you can properly evaluate what it will take to purchase a given player. It will also alert you to potential bargains and warn you of potential pitfalls during your auction.

When to Calculate Inflation
It is smart to calculate inflation frequently because it will change. First an estimated inflation should be calculated before you declare your keepers. This will give you a bit more information on the available player pool and the cost of the players you need and could convince you to change your keeper list. Inflation should be calculated again when the actual freeze rosters are announced. This is the most crucial calculation and will advance your auction prep. Inflation should also be calculated as frequently as possible during your auction. Inflation will change with each player acquisition. I elaborate on in-draft inflation below.

Things to consider before declaring your keepers in an Auction League

• Not every low-priced player is worth keeping. Treat every roster spot like gold.
• Having the best built-in profit going into the draft is nice, but having the most built in value (at the right prices) is more important.
  
• Is there depth in the player pool (or a lack) that might make a certain player worth keeping (or not)?
  
• Don't look for balance in your keeper list, instead look to maximize value.
  
• Consider the long term value of your players and also their cost as they develop. It may be more effective to place a player back into the draft and buy them at a higher price in exchange for a longer contract.
  

How to Calculate Inflation
Inflation equals (money to spend) divided by (value of remaining talent). Multiply each free agent player’s individual value by this amount and you will have the inflated value of each player. Some owners choose to make separate inflation calculations for pitchers and hitters.

In a standard 12-team auction league, with 23-man rosters and a $260 salary cap, there is a total of $3,120 to spend on 276 players. If the owners in our keeper league decide to freeze players with salaries totaling $1,000 but with a projected value of $1,500, then the players remaining in the player pool have a projected value of $1.620. However, the owners now have an extra $500, giving our owners $2,120 to spend on players worth just $1,620. We calculate our inflation by taking the money left to spend divided by the value of the remaining talent or $2,120/$1,620. This results in an inflation of 1.3086, or 31 percent. So if Pujols is valued at $51 and inflation is 31 percent, Pujols has an inflated value of 66.7386 or $67. So if Pujols is the first player called in the above scenario anything less than $67 spent on him should be considered a bargain.

The Per-Player Budget
An essential part of any auction strategy is the per-player budget. This is simply a guideline to the types of players you wish to acquire. On a piece of paper, list the positions required on each roster. Then fill in the names and salaries of anyone on your freeze list (if this is not a keeper league, then you get to skip that step). Next, divide your player acquisition budget amongst the slots with the approximate amounts it will take to roster the players you wish to own. A top outfielder may cost $40, a top-tier closer may go for $35. When all the slots are full and they total the amount you actually have left to spend, you will have completed your per player budget. Spend some time familiarizing yourself with the various players that might fit into these slots, but don’t become too attached to any one player or you could find yourself overbidding to get him.

A proper budget ensures that your team will acquire at least its fair share of the available talent. If there is $1,620 worth of talent available for 12 teams and we assume the freeze lists hold equal amounts of talent (a horrible assumption, I know) each owner must acquire at least $135 worth of talent to stay equal to their rivals. Thus, you must strive to use your remaining money to acquire talent as far exceeding that amount as possible.

In-Draft Inflation
Every auction has moments when players are either being overpriced or going at bargain prices. It is vital to your success that you understand when these periods are happening. In-draft inflation can be tricky to get a handle of when you are trying to track your draft and the rosters of your opponents. The easy way to monitor it is to use a program like RotoLab or Diamond Draft. The software will track the inflation in your auction every step of the way.

However, if you are forced to calculate it by hand, you can use my convenient shortcut. After the first player purchase, jot down how much above or below value (according to your projections) that player was. Do the same for every player that follows – adding or subtracting the difference in dollars. This will leave you with a running tally of how much above or below value the auction is at any given moment. If the number is a large positive value, then players have been overpriced and bargains are about to ensue. If the number is a large negative, the players have been bargains and the correction is coming soon. If the total stays at or just above or below zero, players are going almost exactly as you projected.

An Example from the Mailbag
I received the following e-mail from a reader. The message has been slightly edited and the names changed to protect the innocent...

I had an amazing team last year and was crushing my league all season until a traumatizing final day of the season comeback by the guy in second place where he gained 8 points and I lost 3...

In our league we can select 4 players to keep. Traditional logic would say that I should keep Wandy Rodriguez ($1) Ubaldo ($1) Tommy Hanson ($3) and Aaron Hill (3$) because they would give me the greatest relative value. However I also have on my team Pujols ($38) Kemp ($25) Ellsbury ($18) and Longoria ($25) who would all present some savings but not as much as the previous 4 I mentioned.

The league also has another weird rule that says that new teams are allowed to select any 4 players who were on a teams roster last year but not kept. I feel like if I go for the first 4 players I mentioned I would be doing well value wise, but the 2 new incoming managers would almost certainly keep the latter 4 who are all superior players but provide less value. How would you pick?

Thanks,
XXXXXX

This does look like a tough decision. The first step is to look at the projected value of each of our potential keepers. (Values are from BaseballHQ.com)

	Player	Cost	Proj. Value	Profit
	Wandy Rodriguez	1	27	26
	Ubaldo Jimenez	1	23	22
	Tommy Hanson	3	23	20
	Aaron Hill	3	17	14
	Albert Pujols	38	44	6
	Matt Kemp	25	38	13
	Jacoby Ellsbury	18	31	13
	Evan Longoria	25	26	1

If we were interested in having the greatest built-in profit we would keep Wandy Rodriguez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tommy Hanson, and Aaron Hill just as our reader suggested. They combine for a cost of just $8 with a collective value of $90 and a profit of $82. That is a pretty nice group of players to have. But is it the best group?

If we take the four most valuable players we would take Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Wandy Rodriguez. Their combined cost would be much higher at $82 but with a collective value of $140 and profit of $58. This is also a good group. But is it more valuable to have $74 more dollars to spend or $50 more value or $24 more profit? This is a tough question to answer without knowing the league more intimately and having more details on the available player pool.

You could attempt to build a combination of players but I believe the second group is the way to go. The only change I'd be tempted to make would be to substitute Ubaldo Jimenez for Jacoby Ellsbury. This is based on my belief that cheap steals will be relatively easy to come by this season. As you will see when I release the All-Sleeper Teams later this week.

Brian Fuentes Demoted? Matt Kemp Rising! Tomko Dealing?!?!

To baseball in a minute. Has anyone out there seen Whiteout yet? Its based on this Graphic Noveland stars Kate Beckinsale. It has to be worth seeing, right?



Los Angeles Angels manager, Mike Scioscia, is calling Kevin Jepsen a co-closer to Brian Fuentes. "Both guys have been an important part of the back end of the bullpen," Scioscia said on Monday night. "But if there are some matches that could be advantageous [to use Jepsen], we will try to take advantage of [them]." Jepsen is probably gone in deeper leagues but any Fuentes owners still in contention should be checking the waiver wires. I doubt this is a situation that would continue into 2010 but it may be worth grabbing Jepsen in keeper leagues where he is still available. You never know.

I think the St. Louis Cardinals made a serious mistake this season. While I love Matt Holiday and his impact on the Cards playoff chances is undeniable, they should have found a way to do it without losing top prospect Brett Wallace. The Athletics had to deal Holiday. They had no shot at retaining him and offering a player like Holiday arbitration in uncertain financial times can be extremely risky. Wallace may not be a stellar defensive player at third base. He may not even be average. But to dump him when your team has such a glaring hole at the position and such a need for a bat like Wallace...It continues to boggle my mind all these weeks later.

Instead the Cardinals continue to use Joe Thurston at third with a very rare dose of Troy Glaus when his fragile bones allow. Glaus has managed just 18 at-bats this season. Is the defense from Joe Thurston and Glaus so much more valuable than a potential all-star bat? I seriously doubt it.

Is Brett Tomko an improved pitcher or is this just a nice run of good luck for him? His 5.39 FIP says it isn't. His strikeout rate is still a barely mediocre 5.18, less even than his career 5.98 rate. His walk rate is down this year to 2.04 per nine innings. But walks have never really been Tomko's problem. The HR9 starts to get at his problem. He has a career rate of 1.26 which is bad enough but this year it stands at 1.88 which is probably still a sign of bad luck even for Tomko. His FB rate is up significantly but since it hasn't really hurt him I think it is safe to assume that he is being aided greatly by Oakland Collesium (or whatever they call it now). The A's defense and bullpen have also helped Tomko build a 84.8 LOB% which is another sign that luck is playing a huge factor in his performance. I'm sure he's tempting to those that are streaming pitchers down the stretch. I would still stay away. Rostering Tomko is like trading your cow for a sack of magic beans.

RotoCommunity.com has lots of great articles you should check out. But of particular interest may be their expert league fantasy football draft results. My team got destroyed in week one. It didn't help that my thin receiving core was counting on Anthony Gonzalez to step up into a quasi-number one type. I have serious work to do. It is not too late to gain some value from looking at this draft. It could confirm an idea or turn you off on another one.

Over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron is predicting the rise of the center fielder.

There is so much talent in center field that we could be seeing the dawning of the greatest group of talent to ever play the position at the same time. Seriously, just take a look at the current crop of players manning the position.

This spawned nearly 100 comments from readers. Many had a problem with the groupings that Dave used which in my opinion is a little silly. The groupings have little to do with the overall point -- that this is a historic period for center field talent. A few seemed to have a problem with how Matt Kemp was classified. Some arguing that he is overrated and others that he is potentially the best in the game. A couple of the older guys suggested that the Duke Snider/Mickey Mantle/Willie Mays era was easily the best. This is interesting reading that you'll want to check out.

Matt Kemp - 2010's Top Ranked Outfielder

Before this season began I predicted that Matt Kemp would become a top 10 outfielder and he has done it. I was prepared to call Matt Kemp the number one outfielder for the 2010 season but Paul Sporer of FanBall's OwnersEdge has beat me to it. Paul has just released some very early top 12 rankings at each position for the 2010 season. I have a few quibbles, but overall the lists are pretty close to what the better fantasy experts will be posting in the next few months. Paul of course has done it first.

Owner's Edge is a premiere site that charges a membership few in order to access their articles. But Paul was good enough to post his lists on the RotoJunkie Forums for people to see and comment upon. Here is the outfielder list, check out RotoJunkie and OwnersEdge for the others.

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Matt Holliday
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Carlos Beltran
9. Bobby Abreu
10. Justin Upton
11. Jason Bay
12. Adam Dunn

2009 Fantasy Man Early Expert Mock Draft

A few weeks ago I participated in the Fantasy Man's Early Expert Mock Draft. I went in without any real strategy in mind. I planned to make some out of the box picks and see what the reaction was like. I think I finished with a very solid squad that has more upside potential than most. The Fantasy Man has a post on his blog that has collected the thoughts of a few of the experts.


I am very curious to hear your thoughts.


See the entire draft here

C Joe Mauer

C Dioner Navarro

1B Justin Morneau

3B Alex Rodriguez

CR Adrian Beltre

2B Mark Ellis

SS JJ Hardy

MI Jason Bartlett

OF Matt Kemp

OF Nate McLouth

OF Jermaine Dye

OF Nelson Cruz

OF Coco Crisp

Utl Jason Giambi

P Cliff Lee

P Rich Harden

P Josh Johnson

P Gavin Floyd

P Chien-Ming Wang

P Brandon Morrow

P George Sherrill

P Heath Bell

P Joakim Soria

Vote for the Next Fantasy Baseball Stud

Who is the next Fantasy Baseball Stud?

An early look at the biggest risers in fantasy baseball drafts.

The 2008 season saw the rise of several young players. Which one is your favorite for fantasy baseball dominance?

Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
B.J. Upton OF Tampa Bay Rays
Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays
Joakim Soria RP Kansas City Royals
Joey Votto 1B Cincinnati Reds
Alexei Ramirez 2B/SS Chicago White Sox
Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston Red Sox
Cameron Maybin OF Florida Marlins
Other - Please Comment Below

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