Showing posts with label Los Angeles Dodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Los Angeles Dodgers. Show all posts

Friday, November 07, 2014

Return of the Hot Stove Junkie!




Way back in the olden days of this blog when I was with RotoExperts.com I used to write a regular column called "The Hot Stove Junkie", it was essentially just a recap of news during the off-season and the potential fantasy impact (if any). It probably seems obvious at this point but I'm bringing it back to this blog as a regular feature as I knock the dust off this thing and get things cranked again. So let's get to it.

The Dodgers are Loading Up

The Los Angeles Dodgers are building a fantastic collection of front office talent.Farhan Zaidi from the Oakland Athletics is the new GM. Josh Brynes has been brought on as the new Vice President of Baseball Operations and will oversee the scouting and player development efforts. The one move I wish they had made was taking the opportunity to add Joe Maddon as the field manager. I grew up a Don Mattingly fan and he is a decent leadership guy, but he makes a lot of cringe-worthy in-game decisions. Hell, I'd take Maddon over just about any manager in the game at this point.

Great Profile on Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers new General Manager

One of the things I expect to see from the Dodgers over the winter is a final solution to their outfield logjam. It worked out fine last season but the Dodgers need to start making room for younger players such as Joc Pederson. I think if Hanley Ramirez comes back (which I sincerely doubt) he will have to move to third base. Then they move Dee Gordon back to shortstop and create a spot for Alex Guerrero at second base (though he could be interested in a trade to the Florida Marlins, lol). Corey Seager will be up to play short or third before we know it so clearing a spot by not re-signing the declining Ramirez is a good idea. Of course the Dodgers are rumored to have looked into acquiring Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez, which would allow them to keep Gordon at second and use Guerrero as a utility player at multiple positions. Friedman is a fan of a strong bench and usually avoids carrying weak players just to fill spots. But more than anything I expect the Dodgers to

Minor League Players that may Impact the Dodgers 2015 Major League Roster

The Tampa Bay Rays Look to the Future

With Joe Maddon's defection to the Chicago Cubs and Friedman leaving to the Dodgers the Rays have no choice but to consider where they go from here. The 2014 season was supposed to be their season. They had their highest payroll ever and a loaded roster with the best manager in the game at the helm. But they flopped. A disappointing season that just seems to get worse and worse with each passing week. The rumors of the Rays bolting to Montreal are in full swing. I would not blame them if they did move. Though I guess they may soon be in a position to earn a lot more from their television contract, but with empty stands you have to question how much of a difference it would make.

The Rays Managerial Search Continues...

The Rays just traded bullpen lefty Cesar Ramos to the Angels for a struggling prospect in transition, Mark Sappington. This is exactly the type of move the Rays have excelled at making in the past - turning expensive parts into cheaper and younger long-term alternatives.

Ben Zobrist is relatively cheap compared to his production but the Rays could also be trading him and/or Yunel Escobar. It would essentially be a minor re-building of the team but that may not be the worst move at this point. So may teams seem to be searching for middle infielders that they could reap a huge haul of useful parts. Nick Franklin would then get an opportunity to play everyday at second or shortstop. I still think he will ultimately hit and hit well. 

From the L.A. Times:
03+Sappington, a fifth-round pick out of Rockhurst (Mo.) University in 2012, struggled as a starter at double-A Arkansas and Class-A Inland Empire this season, going 2-11 with a 7.05 ERA, 69 walks and 65 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings.

But he thrived after moving to the bullpen in early July, finding better command of his fastball, which sits in the 96-mph range, and the sharpness of his slider.

Sappington was 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and a .207 opponents' batting average in 25 games as a reliever. He struck out 49 and walked 10 in 32 innings. By the end of the season, he was closing for Inland Empire.
The Houston Astros Trade two prospects for Hank Conger

Conger is a decent bat at catcher who is also an excellent receiver behind the plate. He will back up Jason Castro for now at least but the Astros have four major league catchers now and that is almost certain to lead to a trade of one of the others. The Astros have had tons of interest in Castro and they could probably get a killing from a team that can't afford or loses out in the Russell Martin sweepstakes.

From MLB.com:
The Astros added to their depth at catcher on Wednesday by acquiring switch-hitter Hank Conger from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for right-hander Nick Tropeano and Minor League catcher Carlos Perez

Perez, 24, spent the 2014 season at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he hit .259 with 16 doubles, six homers and 34 RBIs in 88 games with the RedHawks. Tropeano, 24, made his Major League debut with Houston this season, starting four games for the Astros in September. A fifth-round pick in the 2011 Draft, Tropeano went 9-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 23 games (20 starts) at Triple-A in 2014.

The Los Angeles Angels are Making Moves

The Angels have already gotten to work re-building their bullpen and beefing up the farm system reserves with their two trades this week for lefty reliever Cesar Ramos and nearly ready prospects in right-handed starter Nick Tropeano and catcher Carlos Perez. These moves make a lot of sense to me. The bullpen definitely needs re-enforcements and the minor leagues are awfully thin on major league ready players.

The Angels get what they need without adding to the payroll.




Monday, March 04, 2013

Is Adrian Gonzalez a 2013 Fantasy Baseball Bust?


I have been writing quite a bit lately about the various position tiers of fantasy baseball. If you have been following here and in Big League Magazine (you should subscribe!) you will know that I believe the top tier at first base to be much smaller than most seem to expect. I am about to share with you my reasoning on one of the players typically expected to be in the first tier this season but who I believe is in the midst of a serious decline in production - Adrian Gonzalez.You will find my first base tiers and some brief comments on each player below the Adrian Gonzalez portion of this article.

First basemen have a reputation in MLB as well as in fantasy as being the biggest bats in the game. These are the guys that find their way into lineups regardless of defensive limitations or lack of running speed based on the quality of their hitting skills alone. We expect them to hit for average and for lots and lots of power. If we ran a poll of what fantasy owners wanted from their first baseman I have no doubt power would rule the day. Personally, I believe that high batting averages and big power are essential qualities in a top tier first baseman. First baseman typically do not steal bases so if they do not hit for average they become three category players. I don't know about you but if a player covers less than four categories he is moving way down my list. 

When Adrian Gonzalez was with the San Diego Padres he was a very good first baseman with outstanding numbers, especially considering he was playing most of his games in the sport's least favorable hitting environment. His batting averages were usually in the .275-.285 range with 30-plus homeruns per season. As a Padre he was a serious threat to score 100 runs and collect 100 RBI every season. He probably peaked during the 2008-2009 seasons when he hit 36 and 40 homers. His isolated power has declined in each of the three years since that peak. He went from a high ISO of .274 in 2009 with 40 homeruns to just .164 in 2012 when he hit just 18 homeruns between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Gonzalez suffered a shoulder injury in May of the 2010 season. He played through the pain the entire season and had what was initially expected to be relatively simple surgery in October of that same season. The surgery was often referred to as "cleaning up the shoulder". Later it was revealed that the rehab could take up to five months. This meant that even if he started the season on time there was a significant risk that he would still lack ideal strength in the joint. This had the potential to sap his power and make him a far less productive power hitter. That did not happen but his skill indicators still took a fall even as his production remained strong.

While rehabbing the shoulder Gonzalez, who had implied he would not be returning to the Padres when he reached his impending free agency, was traded to the Boston Red Sox. They were very aware of the shoulder problem but did not seem at all worried about it. Fenway Park tends to boost batting average and slugging percentage while robbing batters of homeruns. So Gonzalez seemed quite productive in 2011 despite power numbers that might seem disappointing when compared to his San Diego numbers. Few noticed that his .380 BABIP seemed very much out of character. His groundball rate rose dramatically with a corresponding decrease in flyballs. He was swinging at many more pitches out of the strike zone but he was making slightly better contact as well, even as he drew fewer walks. Before the 2012 season the Red Sox signed Gonzalez to a seven year $154 million dollar contract.

Gonzalez started very slow in 2012. He had just 6 homeruns through the end of June. His batting average was relatively mediocre until a brief BA surge in June. This was despite a first half .327 BABIP. His line at the end of June was just .283/.329/.416 with 6 homeruns, 45 RBI and 42 runs. That would have been a pretty good line for your shortstop (assuming you were getting steals somewhere else) but for your first baseman it was atrocious. There are lots of theories about what happened. For some it was the Bobby Valentine Effect. Just about anything that went wrong in Boston during the 2012 season has been laid at the feet of their former manager. However, there had been a clear change in skills and approach. The trade to the Dodgers seemed to make him happy. He was back on the West Coast and overall his second half was much more productive - .317/.361/.517 with 12 homers, just 33 runs but 63 RBI and even two stolen bases.

But can you count on Gonzalez to repeat his second half numbers? His second half BABIP of .342 is high but not ridiculous for Gonzalez given his career .324 BABIP. His walk rates have come way down since his peak. That has a lot to do with earning fewer intentional walks but that is not all of it. It could be a sign that his bat is not as feared around the league as it once was though it could also be that he now plays in deeper lineups. He is now a far less discerning batter, he has begun swinging at just about anything within reach. His power has declined three years running in dramatic fashion. His batted ball types tell that tale. He has become more of a groundball hitter with declining FB%, ISO, HR/FB% and obviously homerun totals.He has been hitting more doubles but that was primarily in Fenway Park. The Boston doubles could become long outs. If the BABIP scores regress to career levels or worse he could be a complete disaster at his present ADP.

Tier One First Basemen

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds - The ideal first baseman is like Votto a five category contributor in a great lineup. The knee injury should not a concern. This could be his career year.

Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers - Fielder has been very durable but has up and down power numbers. If the pattern holds this should be a up year for Fielders homerun totals.

Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels - The best player in the game until 2012, I don't think this is the end. Other than April and September he was pretty much Pujols as usual.

Tier Two First Basemen

Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals- The power everyone wanted arrived but it was mostly a HR/FB illusion. His ridiculous slow (I mean Bug Bunny slow pitch slow) running speed will keep his run totals low.
 
Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees - The shift is killing his batting average but he still has serious power. The imploding Yankees could erode his RBI totals.

Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals- If he could stay healthy he might move up a tier. He hits for average and could hit 35 homers if he ever got a full season of at-bats.

Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays - A few years later than expected, E5 has arrived. An improved O-Swing was a big factor. He steals a few bases too.

Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks - Everybody's new favorite has even more power than this. There is some average downside in his O-swing, and strikeout rate and it would be foolish to expect 18 stolen bases again.

Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox _ He is starting to slow down but he is such a good hitter that it may take a few more years to convince most fans. The White Sox have no one to replace him with anyway.

Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers - A talented player holding a lot of risky indicators. He should probably move down a tier. But unless you skipped the above article you know all that. You might have known anyway.

Tier Three First Basemen

Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals - He might be in the second tier if he was consistently healthy. If I owned him this season I would move Tyler Moore up my list of reserve picks.

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves - He swings at too many pitches out of the zone but is becoming more patient and his power is improving. He is young enough that his breakout could be shockingly good.

Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs- Rizzo made nice improvements to his long swing and had another very impressive minor league season and a promising major league debut.

Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins - Injuries have kept his promise under wraps. He has the skills to hit for power and average. He is a patient powerful and disciplined batter. Health and at-bats are the key to his breakout.

Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers- Hart has solid power and a decent bat. His knee injury could mess up his base to start the season, so expect a slightly lower homer rate.

Ike Davis, New York Mets - He deserves an article of his own. His power arrived in the second half of the season but he spent the first half recovering from the effects of Valley Fever.

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies - His peak was not very long but it was great while it lasted. He still has big power but the batting average could be disappointing.

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins - He finally appears to be healthy. He expects to get a full season of at-bats this season. If he gets them and recovers his former skills he is an MVP candidate.

Lance Berkman, Texas Rangers - Berkman is brittle but very productive when healthy. He is aging quickly and is apparently just playing for the money at this point.

Tier Four First Basemen

Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates- A solid hitter with pretty good power. Unfortunately the Pirates are always trying to improve on him.

Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies- He's really the right fielder but he serves as Todd Helton's understudy at first base. Cuddyer is a five category contributor without any elite skills.

Mike Morse, Seattle Mariners - Has big power but has yet to prove he can be a consistent contributor from season to season. Injuries have been a factor and his new home park could be intimidating.

Hosmer's beard makes him look stupid.
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals - Everyone's favorite sleeper going into the 2012 season was a huge disappointment. His ADP still has him as a top 100 pick. He swings at too many outside pitches but he does have the patience to draw walks and makes strong contact. A good portion of his problems could be related to his .255 BABIP.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants - Belt has not exploded on the major league scene the way some prospect junkies expected. He draws walks but still swings at too many bad pitches. He is very BABIP dependent.

Chris Carter, Houston Astros - The power has been obvious for a long time but the platoon helped him be a bit more productive hitter. The Astros can give him a ton of at-bats. He has some upside potential, if you want to understand his ceiling better read this Minor League Ball article.

Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres - Alonso had a pretty good full season debut. He showed patience and discipline at the plate. His power was a little disappointing but his 39 doubles hold some promise for greater homer totals in the future. A nice pick in leagues where you can be patient with him. The power will improve.

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays - The lineup around him is vastly improved. The expectations for the Blue Jays are higher than they've been in years and almost all the pressure if off Lind as the DH hitting near the bottom of the lineup. He showed improvement in the second half after his stint in the minors.

Tier Five First Basemen


Michael Young, Philadelphia Phillies - Had his worst season in the majors. It was not quite the fantasy disaster that it was for real baseball unless you drafted him based on his 2011 season.

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles - He finally got a full season of at-bats and showed his power potential. He is not a great bat but the power is as real as it gets. I expect more of the same.

Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox - The news about his hip injury has been a bit blown out of proportion because of how anxious the Red Sox were to protect themselves. According to news that went under reported the condition caught early enough that treatment should be very effective. Napoli has been very productive in Fenway Park.

Brett Wallace, Houston Astros - The Astros are determined to give Wallace as many at-bats as possible. Wallace spent some time in the minors getting his swing back and was quietly productive on his return. This kid has experienced a lot in his very short career.

Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox - His homeruns came back in a big way but his power adjustment did not improve his batting average much. Despite 41 homers his slugging percentage was just .468 as he hit just 19 doubles. He is closer to done than those in love with the homerun totals would have you believe.

Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard were to go down to injury Ruf would be better suited to first base than the outfield role he is bound to have. Ruf is not an empty power hitter nor a one hit wonder. Some guys just take a bit longer to develop. He reminds me a lot of young Ryan Howard.

Tier Six First Basemen

Tyler Moore
Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics - Based on his track record I will have to see Moss do it again before I'll have any faith in him.

Mark Reynolds, Cleveland Indians - He has serious power and strikes out a ton. He is now is a lineup full of similar hitters. It should be fun to watch. Indian fans will want to wear windbreakers this season.

Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners - The Mariners are giving him another opportunity based on how he finished the 2012 season. He looks good this spring and the addition if veteran bats mean there should be less pressure on the young players in Seattle.

Tyler Moore, Washington Nationals - A player I like more than most people. Davey Johnson is not a huge fan of rookies and held off using Moore as long as possible in 2012. he knows that Moore can be a very productive bat now. He should have a bench role to start the season.

Juan Rivera, New York Yankees - Rivera is not a great bat but thanks to the brittle and aging bats in the Yankees lineup Rivera should have plenty of at-bats this season.

Tier Seven First Basemen

Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies - A former fantasy stud reduced to hitting for average and trying to stay healthy enough to complete his ridiculous contract.

Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals He could be the starting second baseman if all goes right but he does not qualify there. He has some potential with the bat if he can find a position.

Jordan Pacheco, Colorado Rockies - A decent hitter but he has no power and no start role.

Gaby Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates - A better player than he showed in 2012. The Pirates will give him another opportunity to steal the first base job. He'll end up getting at-bats even if he doesn't start on a regular basis.

Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers - He has not improved while in the majors and looks to lose at-bats this season to Lance Berkman and eventually Mike Olt.

Mike Carp, Boston Red Sox- A favorite sleeper from 2012, Carp is now a bench bat for the Boston Red Sox. He should find at-bats at first and the outfield corners.

Casey Kotchman, Miami Marlins - Kotchman will battle Logan Morrison for at-bats but unless Morrison remains injured is unlikely to play much.

Carlos Pena, Houston Astros - The new Astros designated hitter. His power is in decline and he has not hit for average in years.

James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays - Why the Rays prefer James Loney to someone like Carlos Lee is a mystery. Loney does not hit for average or power anymore.



Thursday, October 29, 2009

2010 Sleeper: James Loney


James Loney is on the verge of becoming an extremely good hitter. He already walks more than he strikes out. He hits for a solid batting average and because he hits in the solid Dodgers lineup he collects a solid number of Runs and RBI. However, he has no real power especially for a first baseman. Loney will be 25-years old when the 2010 season begins. He is still young enough to be developing the power that fantasy owners want to see from their corner infielders. The vast majority of his scouting reports (remember he was a first round pick) saw him developing 20-25 homerun power someday. To the doubters out there (who we love because they keep Loney’s auction price down) I can only say that you also probably doubted that Joe Mauer would ever develop power.

Loney is precisely the kind of player that savvy owners can collect at bargain rates. It seems like he has been around forever and his surface stats seem to reflect a player that has reached his level and has nothing else to offer. But he's young, he has tools, and best of all he has the skills to do almost anything with a bat in his hands. James Loney will be on quite a few of my fantasy squads this season. We have not seen the best of Loney yet.

So, what do you think?

Season Team BB% K% BB/K OBP SLG ISO Spd BABIP wOBA
2006 Dodgers (AAA) 8.00% 9.30% 0.94 0.426 0.546 0.167 4.6 0.404 0.422
2006 Dodgers 7.30% 9.80% 0.80 0.342 0.559 0.275 6.2 0.284 0.377
2006 Dodgers 20.00% 0.00% 1.00 0.800 0.750 0.000 0.1 0.750 0.675
2006 Average 8.70% 18.90% 0.50 0.337 0.432 0.163 5 0.305 0.332
2007 Dodgers (AAA) 9.70% 20.60% 0.52 0.345 0.382 0.103 3.3 0.348 0.322
2007 Dodgers 7.50% 14.00% 0.58 0.381 0.538 0.206 2.8 0.352 0.389
2008 Dodgers 7.00% 14.30% 0.53 0.338 0.434 0.145 4.2 0.320 0.333
2008 Dodgers 9.10% 23.30% 0.43 0.394 0.533 0.200 0.1 0.409 0.393
2009 Dodgers 10.80% 11.80% 1.03 0.357 0.399 0.118 3.6 0.301 0.332

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

What's Wrong With Russell Martin?

Russell Martin is a player that usually gets drafted a bit higher than he should. That is obviously because he has been one of the better fantasy catchers available. But this year his power and even his batting average seem to have completely evaporated. But it is very rare for a 26-year old to degrade this quickly. So it must be something that can be fixed.

Martin's walk rate is about the same as always hovering around 14 percent. His strikeout rate is slightly elevated at 19.6 percent, which is high when compared to his career average of 15.7 percent. While his BABIP is okay at .298, it is low for Martin whose career BABIP of .312 is fitting for a player with his speed and plate discipline. His GB/LD/FB rates look almost exactly the same as previous seasons.

It is worth noting that his power began to evaporate in the second half of the 2008 season. After the All-Star Break, Martin hit just .260/.371/.336 in 223 at-bats. That line looks an awful lot like this season's .239/.348/.282 slash.



Steiner Sports Los Angeles Dodgers Joe Torre Autographed Baseball

This looks like a combination of horrible luck and some mental issues. He is not doing anything dramatically different. Scouts, including fantasy expert Jason Grey, have noted that he doesn't seem to be swinging the bat with authority. I think rather than looking at video, or taking extra reps in the batting cage, Martin needs someone to kick him in the ass and motivate him. Joe Torre probably isn't that guy. Maybe Don Mattingly could get to him.

This spring a lot of sites picked up on this Globe and Mail quote:
"Martin, 26, has big plans for himself and the Dodgers, who are waiting patiently for Manny Ramirez before declaring themselves favorites in the NL West. One of them involves a calmer approach. He's added yoga to his training regimen. He's resolved to sleep better and eat more carefully. He's settled down with a steady girlfriend, and while babies aren't in the picture, 'We are practicing a lot,' he says, smiling."
I've played enough sports to know that calm only seems like a good thing. Most athletes need to get fired up and excited in order to play at their highest levels. It is the reason behind the fist pumps, the celebration dances and the high fives. This is just my opinion but taking Martin out for a bacon cheeseburger, some greasy onion rings, and a drunken fat chick might be the best thing for him.

But more seriously, I don't think Martin has lost any skill or that there is anything physically wrong with him. Unfortunately, I think Martin has lost some of his motivation to play the game, which does not bode well for fantasy leaguers. I would be very willing to trade Martin if I owned him. I would not acquire Martin unless I were receiving a very good deal.

What's Wrong with Russell Martin?