2014 Quick Hits: Jarrod Dyson, Kansas City Royals

Jarrod Dyson may be a better player than Lorenzo Cain. However,  the Kansas City Royals have invested so much of their time and effort trying to make Cain their regular center fielder and leadoff hitter that they may have become blinded to the guy sitting on their bench. Dyson compares favorably to Cain in almost every category. They are both superior defensive players, Dyson walks more, strikes out less and last year he even showed more power than Cain. Dyson is an excellent player to stash on a bench or to fill a fifth outfielder slot in a deep league. If Lorenzo Cain continues to be injury prone Jarrod Dyson may prove a savvy choice as a sleeper for full-time at-bats. He stole 34 bases last season in just 239 plate appearances and steals are something fantasy owners can always use.

Fangraphs Page

Jarrod Dyson on Royals’ approach: ‘We’re going straight to the playoffs and nobody is stopping it’

2011 Sleeper: Jeff Francis SP Kansas City Royals

At first glance, it doesn't appear that Jeff Francis has ever been a desired fantasy starter. Before you look at his stats you know that he's spent his entire major league career pitching at Coor Field. Coors Field, the longtime bane of fantasy owners everywhere when it comes to pitching, has made many decent pitchers look abominable. Francis is included in that class but he can't blame it all on the thin air.

Francis, at least in the majors, has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Not terrible rates, but nothing to make an ambitious fantasy owner take notice. His HR9 has been all over the place from awesome to abysmal. However he does induce a decent number of groundballs. With skills like these it is pretty easy to understand why with so many teams looking for starters (teams with cash to spend like the Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Cubs) Francis landed on the Kansas City Royals.

But as most of us understand these days, a pitcher's skills are not the entire story. There are park factors, team defense, and luck that factor into things.

Park Factors

Even in the era of the humidor, Coors Field is not exactly a friendly place for pitchers. According to StatCorner.com's Park Factors, Coors Field had the following influence in 2010:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K:	87 / 90		GB:	102 / 103
BB:	103 / 89		OF:	91 / 93
1B:	103 / 104		LD:	129 / 128
2B:	104 / 120		IF:	95 / 90
3B:	121 / 188		HBP:	72 / 99
HR:	116 / 117		wOBA:	108 / 112

If you were wondering why the Rockies have had such bad luck signing free agent pitchers, here is your first clue. Unless a guy is desperate to line with pockets with greenbacks, free agent pitchers will go elsewhere. Here are the numbers for the new place - Kauffman Stadium:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K:	88 / 92		GB:	106 / 101
BB:	104 / 91		OF:	100 / 108
1B:	104 / 102		LD:	105 / 106
2B:	117 / 106		IF:	85 / 93
3B:	122 / 126		HBP:	115 / 82
HR:	73 / 85		wOBA:	104 / 100

What you really want to look at is that homerun factor. At Coors Field 116/117 and in KC, 73/85. The rest is a lot closer than you might think, but a 30 percent swing in homerun rate could do wonders for any pitcher. A plus for Jeff Francis and his potential fantasy value.

Team Defense

Both the Royals and Rockies were bad defensive teams last year. In fact, the Rockies and Royals rate as the worst and second worst defensive team by UZR/150 the last three seasons. The Rockies at -5.8 and the Royals at -5.7 were basically just as bad. Fortunately, the Royals have reason to believe they have significantly improved their overall defense. Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar should all be significant improvements defensively. Very unscientifically, I'm going to say that the Royals should be a good defensive team in 2011. Another plus for Francis and his fantasy value.

Luck

I hate the very idea of luck. Probably because I have a severe lack of it, at least the good kind. It is also almost impossible to measure in any accurate way. francis has a career BABIP of .314 but he's been over that mark four out of six seasons (he missed the 2009 season due to injury). That sounds like bad luck, the horrid defense factors into that as well. His LOB percentage is all over the place but it has mostly been below 70 percent, which looks like bad luck. Inconsistent bullpens and lousy managers don't help, but it was at 64.5 percent in 2010 which looks like real bad luck. With so much bad luck in Jeff's history we can only hope the change of scenery brings brings better luck to Francis and his fantasy owners.

Conclusion

Jeff Francis is not a great pitcher but he is a decent one. Before his injury he proved to be fairly durable. He pitched at near a league average level (that may be a bit generous) in one of the worst pitching environments the world has ever known. In an improved pitching environment he should has a pretty good chance at a career best season. One that fantasy owners in AL-only leagues should like seeing on their stat sheets, and mixed leaguers may want to gamble on in the late rounds or dollar days.

Re-Evaluating the Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals have fired manager Trey Hillman. I believe Hillman was managing the way General Manager Dayton Moore wanted him to manage. Moore wanted this team to win this season using veteran talent rather than continue to rebuild with younger players. If the Royals have reached the point of firing the manager, I hope that they have also seen that the present philosophy used to run the team was not working either.

If you want more on why Hillman is gone read Rany on the Royal's Hillman's Last Stand.

The Royals need to utilize the most talented players on their roster and those are also the younger players. Below are a few players you might expect to see increased playing time with new manager Ned Yost (formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers) at the helm, and one player I have a hunch will make an impact before the end of the season.

Mike Aviles, Shortstop - Avilles is playing a lot now but I expect the Yunisky Betancourt appearances to become less and less frequent.

Kila Ka'aihue, First Baseman - Jose Guillen will not be a member of the Royals' next winning team. Ka'aihue could very well be the starting first baseman or Designated Hitter. He can hit and deserves to play every day.

Alex Gordon, Third Baseman - The Royals need Gordon to be all that he can be even if that is not quite what they may have once hoped. He needs another chance and the Royals have little to lose by giving it to him.

Mitch Maier, Outfielder - Maier has the ability to hit 10-12 homers and steal 10-15 bases over a full season in the majors.

Jai Miller, Outfielder - Last year for Triple-A New Orleans he had 16 homers, 52 RBIs and a .289 average.

In Other News

Hechavarria makes pro debut tonight
The much anticipated professional debut for highly touted Cuban shortstop prospect Adeiny Hechavarria will be made on Friday night for Dunedin as the Blue Jays take on the FSL North Division leading Clearwater Threshers at 7 p.m. at Dunedin Stadium. Hechavarria is expected to be with Dunedin for a short while before seeing time at Double-A New Hampshire. His play with the Fishercats will then dictate his path to the Major Leagues either with a September call-up this year or a shot at the shortstop job in 2011.

Casper Wells Recalled By Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers today recalled the contract of outfielder Casper Wells from Triple-A Toledo and optioned the contract of right-handed pitcher Alfredo Figaro to Toledo. Wells will be in uniform tonight for the Tigers against the visiting Red Sox, wearing No. 57. Wells was batting .203 with a team-leading five home runs (tied with Jeff Larish) in 31 games for the Mud Hens. The 25-year-old is a Grand Rapids native. (From Tiger Tales: Billfer explains how he thinks the roster will shake out at Detroit Tigers Weblog and I agree with his thinking. Wells will likely replace Alfredo Figaro on the roster tonight. He then may return to Toledo on Sunday if Armando Galarraga is recalled to start a game. This would prevent Jeremy Bonderman or Rick Porcello from pitching on three days rest.)

Boras: Hank Blalock - promote him or let him become free agent!
Agent Scott Boras indicated Tuesday that Blalock would activate the out clause in his Triple-A contract within the next week, forcing the Rays to either promote him to the big-league team or allow him to become a free agent and sign elsewhere. Blalock, 29, has been sizzling at Durham, with an International League-leading .366 average plus four homers, 23 RBIs (in 24 games) and a .959 OPS, while playing third base regularly.

Cameron expects offseason surgery inevitable
Rehabbing Red Sox outfielder Mike Cameron believes that even if he can make it back on the field through simple rehab of his sports hernia, he'll still undergo postseason surgery to correct the problem. While immediate surgery seems to be ruled out, and Cameron told the Providence Journal he could return to the Sox Monday, the outfielder indicated that he is still in significant pain from the injury, which he believes he initially suffered during spring training.

Fractured tibia lands Young on shelf
Eric Young, Jr. never made it to the dugout. He reported to Coors Field with a lump in the middle of his right tibia and was sent to a local hospital, where x-rays revealed a stress fracture. Young sustained the injury while awkwardly rounding first base in the seventh inning of Thursday's game. He continued to play before complaining of soreness in the ninth inning.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

New Situation: Mike Jacobs - Traded

Traded Player: Mike Jacobs

Old Team: Florida Marlins
New Team: Kansas City Royals

Background: As a 38th-round pick by the Mets in 1999 out of Grossmont (California) Junior College, Mike Jacobs was always an unlikely major league star. Jacobs received a chance at big league at-bats after a trade from the New York Mets to the Florida Marlins as part of the exchange for superstar slugger Carlos Delgado.

What the Scouts Say: Jacobs has hit 80 home runs and slugged .498 in four big league seasons making him a major power source for the often cash-strapped Marlins. As a Marlin, he has just a .318 on-base percentage. He cannot hit lefties (.235/.275/.414 versus them in 338 career plate appearances) but is acceptable against righties (.257 average and .315 on-base percentage in 2008). He is not much of a base runner and is below average defensively at first base.

What the Stat Guys Say: Sabermetricians will question why the Royals, who presently hold the rights to a wide variety of cheap alternatives at the first base and designated hitter spots, would spend their assets (even one as limited in ceiling as Leo Nunez) for a player that isn’t very good and not much of an improvement over players already on the forty-man roster. Kila Ka'aihue had a nice season at triple-A but needs to demonstrate that he has actually made a step up in performance level before the Royals can commit to him at the major league level. Ryan Shealy is now 30 years old and has yet to perform in the major leagues on a consistent basis. Counting on either of those players to outplay Jacobs would be a lousy bet. Billy Butler has been highly touted but has yet to perform in the majors and is not a favorite of Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Jacobs hits fly balls and line drives at good rates for a power hitter. His BABIP suggests that he was unlucky last season (.264 in 2008 compared to his career rate of .292) and indicates that he could rebound slightly even though moving to the tougher American League.

Fantasy Outlook: Look for the Royals to platoon Jacobs in the lineup with right-handed first baseman Ryan Shealy to maximize their production at first base. As the left-handed batter in the platoon, he should see enough at-bats to be an asset to fantasy teams. Do not be surprised if the platoon is not a conventional one. For defensive reasons Jacobs may appear as the designated hitter in order to get top prospect (and equally poor on defense) Billy Butler some games in the field. Fantasy leaguers can expect solid power and a just barely acceptable average from Jacobs in 2009.