Slow Starts and Quick Starts

It has been a tough month. Since you last heard from me I have had some important family issues to deal with which were only made more difficult by the Marathon Bombing in my neck of the woods. I have had a hard time getting back in the swing of writing and following fantasy baseball the way I usually do. I have even considered just quitting this effort. But I have not. For now at least, I am going to continue to write here when the mood strikes at least. Hopefully it will start to get easier. I will still be writing for Big League Magazine as much as possible so my work will still be out there somewhere.

This week's BLM features two of my articles focusing on Slow Starts and Quick Starts. Here are a few excerpts for your enjoyment. Hopefully this will entice you to subscribe.

  Quick Starts

James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have a way of getting the most out of players but it is not magic. Despite Loney’s high current batting average, he does little for a fantasy team. He has little power and no speed so homeruns and stolen bases will be rare. Can he keep hitting for a high batting average? Sure, if he maintains his current approach. He has been a lot more patient at the plate this season. He is swinging at far fewer pitches out of the strike zone which has reduced his strikeout rate. Making stronger contact has led to a lot more line drives which will usually result in a higher batting average. The improvement is real but his .416 BABIP will not last so the average will come down. He could stay above .300 if he sticks with his new approach.

Mark Reynolds, Cleveland Indians

The key as it always was for Reynolds was to reduce the strikeouts. He is swinging at a few more pitches and making better contact. His swinging strike rate is up and his walks are down slightly but swinging more seems to agree with him so far. His BABIP is around league average so it does not look like lucky drops (his career BABIP is .305). He looks a lot like the player he was in the minor leagues. It is tough to say he will keep hitting .280-plus but I would ride him as long as it lasts. Swinging at more pitches, especially outside the zone is usually a bad idea but it is working for now.

Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics

Those watching closely last year got a glimpse of the player that Donaldson could be. This season it has been on display from the start for everyone to see. The keys were better BABIP luck, a few more walks and fewer strikeouts. The power is not tremendous but could add up to 15-plus over the course of the season. Not bad for a late round third baseman in AL-only leagues and probably undrafted in many mixed leagues. He is for real.

 Slow Starts

Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels

Hamilton has gone from one of the best parks for American League batters to one of the worse. But even before he left he made a strange change to his approach at the plate. He is swinging at just about everything and his contact rate the last two seasons has really suffered. Hamilton has fantastic power can be a great hitter but he seems strangely committed to this weaker approach. Unless you own him I would not be interested until he starts making better contact again.

Scott Kazmir, Cleveland Indians

On the surface, Scott Kazmir’s season stats to this point would place him solidly in the mediocre class. But he seems to be getting better with each start. His velocity is back in the mid 90’s and his strikeout rate is at 11.07K9. His control is fine judging by his 2.66BB9. The holdup seems to be a poor BABIP (.346) and an elevated HR9 (2.21) which is more than double his career rate. Kazmir is a great buy low if his owner lacks faith.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Price has been disappointing. However, his k-rate and control numbers are right around his career levels. His problem has been an elevated HR/FB (16.7 percent) compared to his (9.6 percent) career level. The homeruns are probably the result of his declined fastball velocity. His velocity has been around 95mph the last two seasons but is around 93mph this season.

Hamilton and Votto Win BBA's Stan Musial Awards

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance concluded their award
season today by naming the best player in each league for 2010. When
all the votes were tallied, two men were comfortably ahead.Texas
outfielder Josh Hamilton, who hit 32 home runs and fashioned an OPS of
1.044 while leading the Rangers into the playoffs, won the award
in the American League. Hamilton received sixteen first place votes
and 261 points overall, which put him ahead of his nearest competitor,
Detroit first baseman Miguel Cabrera, by roughly 70 points.

In the National League, helping Cincinnati to an unexpected divisional
title paid off for first baseman Joey Votto. After a season where he
cracked 37 home runs and posted a 1.024 OPS, Votto also received
sixteen first-place votes toward his total of 252 points. He also
denied St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols the chance to win
back-to-back BBA awards. Pujols was selected as MVP by the BBA in
2009, but placed second with 197 points in this year’s voting.

Winners of other Alliance awards also received votes in the Musial balloting. In the American League, Walter Johnson winner Felix Hernandez received 21 points, while Goose Gossage selection
Rafael Soriano had a single mention. On the senior circuit, Walter Johnson winner Roy Halladay placed fourth in the voting with 101 points.

The complete voting results are as follows (first place votes in parenthesis):

American League
Josh Hamilton, Texas (16) 261
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (4) 188
Robinson Cano, New York 158
Jose Bautista, Toronto (1) 146
Adrian Beltre, Boston 107
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (1) 102
Paul Konerko, Chicago 65
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 56
Joe Mauer, Minnesota 50
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland 44
Felix Hernandez, Seattle 21
Vladimir Guerrero, Texas 13
Justin Morneau, Minnesota 12
Delmon Young, Minnesota 10
Cliff Lee, Seattle/Texas 8
CC Sabathia, New York 8
Alex Rodriguez, New York 7
Clay Buchholz, Boston 4
Mark Teixeria, New York 3
Jon Lester, Boston 2
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle 2
Nick Swisher, New York 2
Jim Thome, Minnesota 2
Kevin Youkilis, Boston 2
Brett Gardner, New York 1
David Ortiz, Boston 1
Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay 1

National League
Joey Votto, Cincinnati (16) 252
Albert Pujols, St. Louis (3) 197
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (1) 118
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia (1) 101
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego 98
Troy Tulowitski, Colorado 98
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington 93
Matt Holliday, St. Louis 84
Aubrey Huff, San Francisco 32
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis 17
Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado 16
Josh Johnson, Florida 16
Dan Uggla, Florida 16
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia 16
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee 13
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee 10
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia 9
Martin Prado, Atlanta 7
Jason Heyward, Atlanta 6
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 5
David Wright, New York 5
Adam Dunn, Washington 4
Kelly Johnson, Arizona 4
Andres Torres, San Francisco 1

The
Baseball Bloggers Alliance was formed in the fall of 2009 to encourage
cooperation and collaboration between baseball bloggers of all major
league teams as well as those that follow baseball more generally. As
of this writing, the organization consists of 233 blogs spanning all 30 major league squads as well as general baseball writing.

The
BBA is organized under a similar structure as the Baseball Writers of
America, where blogs that follow the same team are combined into
“chapters” and only two votes from the chapter on an award
are counted. The blog chapters that are focused on general baseball
were allowed two votes as well, which they could use both on the same
league or split between the two leagues.

Chapters
generally followed one of two methods when casting their ballot.
Either representatives of the chapter were given the ballots for
voting or a “group ballot” was posted, accounting for both of their
votes.

Ballots are posted on the respective blogs and for this award,
were tabulated on a 13-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 point scale for first through
tenth place. In the interest of transparency, links are given below for
the ballots. Chapter affiliation is in parenthesis. Those chapters
that decided on the group method are noted with an asterisk.

American League
Camden Crazies (Baltimore)*
The Bottom Line (Boston)*
The Tribe Daily (Cleveland)*
Motor City Bengals (Detroit)
Switch Hitting Pitchers (Detroit)
One Royal Way (Kansas City)*
Twinkie Talk (Minnesota)
Seth Speaks (Minnesota)
Bronx Baseball Daily (New York)*
Contract Year (Oakland)
Rise of the Rays (Tampa Bay)
Infield Fly (Toronto)
The Blue Jay Hunter (Toronto)
Advanced Fantasy Baseball (Fantasy)*
Victoria Seals Baseball Blog (Other)*
Misc. Baseball (History)*
Blogging From The Bleachers (General)*

National League
Blog Red Machine (Cincinnati)
Marlin Maniac (Florida)
Marlins Diehards (Florida)
Feeling Dodger Blue (Los Angeles)
The Eddie Kranepool Society (New York)*
Dugger’s Corner (Philadelphia)
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? (Pittsburgh)*
The Outfield Ivy (St. Louis)
Pitchers Hit Eighth (St. Louis)
Friar Forecast (San Diego)*
22gigantes (San Francisco)*
Advanced Fantasy Baseball (Fantasy)*
Victoria Seals Baseball Blog (Other)*
Misc. Baseball (History)*
Ron Kaplan’s Baseball Bookshelf (Miscellaneous)*
Blogging From The Bleachers (General)*


Prior Winners: 2009: Joe Mauer, Minnesota; Albert Pujols, St. Louis

The official website of the BBA is located at www.baseballbloggersalliance.com.
The BBA can be found on Twitter by the handle @baseballblogs and by
the hashmark #bbba. Members of the BBA may be heard at Blog Talk Radio
every Tuesday night with their call-in show, BBA Baseball Talk, which may also be downloaded as a podcast from iTunes. For more information, contact Daniel Shoptaw at founder@baseballbloggersalliance.com.

Down the Stretch: The Top Outfielders of 2010

Name	Team	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wOBA
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	7.20%	18.70%	0.357	0.409	0.63	0.272	0.393	0.445
Nelson Cruz	Rangers	9.40%	21.70%	0.32	0.381	0.587	0.267	0.352	0.412
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	14.10%	21.80%	0.255	0.367	0.586	0.331	0.239	0.405
Jon Jay	Cardinals	7.70%	16.70%	0.362	0.411	0.523	0.161	0.42	0.399
Aubrey Huff	Giants	12.50%	13.80%	0.295	0.388	0.523	0.228	0.298	0.395
Jayson Werth	Phillies	13.00%	27.60%	0.299	0.392	0.52	0.221	0.369	0.392
Manny Ramirez	Dodgers	13.50%	19.00%	0.312	0.404	0.508	0.196	0.345	0.391
Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	4.80%	23.90%	0.315	0.347	0.557	0.242	0.361	0.389
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	9.70%	16.20%	0.301	0.373	0.518	0.217	0.319	0.384
Nick Swisher	Yankees	9.40%	23.90%	0.292	0.365	0.511	0.219	0.34	0.379
Josh Willingham	Nationals	14.90%	23.00%	0.268	0.389	0.459	0.192	0.304	0.378
Andres Torres	Giants	10.80%	24.40%	0.283	0.365	0.493	0.209	0.349	0.377
Corey Hart	Brewers	7.60%	24.40%	0.289	0.343	0.538	0.249	0.328	0.376
Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	11.90%	19.80%	0.292	0.385	0.467	0.176	0.332	0.376
Magglio Ordonez	Tigers	11.00%	11.80%	0.303	0.378	0.474	0.17	0.313	0.375
Andre Ethier	Dodgers	8.90%	19.00%	0.298	0.36	0.508	0.21	0.323	0.371
Carl Crawford	Rays	7.20%	17.10%	0.301	0.352	0.478	0.177	0.334	0.37
Jason Heyward	Braves	13.80%	25.10%	0.265	0.378	0.452	0.188	0.317	0.366
Colby Rasmus	Cardinals	11.50%	32.40%	0.269	0.353	0.504	0.235	0.341	0.366
Ryan Braun	Brewers	8.00%	17.10%	0.296	0.354	0.478	0.182	0.325	0.366
Mike Stanton	Marlins	9.90%	35.20%	0.256	0.328	0.52	0.264	0.328	0.365
Delmon Young	Twins	4.10%	11.20%	0.313	0.344	0.507	0.194	0.32	0.363
David DeJesus	Royals	8.60%	13.40%	0.318	0.384	0.443	0.125	0.355	0.363
Torii Hunter	Angels	10.10%	17.90%	0.292	0.369	0.486	0.193	0.316	0.363
Marcus Thames	Yankees	11.10%	30.80%	0.3	0.386	0.431	0.131	0.393	0.363
Coco Crisp	Athletics	9.30%	18.80%	0.279	0.341	0.452	0.173	0.313	0.362
Chris Young	Diamondbacks	9.20%	23.00%	0.269	0.338	0.477	0.209	0.304	0.362
Marlon Byrd	Cubs	5.30%	14.80%	0.307	0.364	0.454	0.148	0.339	0.362
Jim Edmonds	- - -	8.80%	24.50%	0.274	0.34	0.485	0.211	0.327	0.361
Carlos Quentin	White Sox	9.40%	17.60%	0.237	0.337	0.49	0.253	0.222	0.358
Angel Pagan	Mets	8.10%	17.50%	0.295	0.351	0.452	0.157	0.336	0.358
Brett Gardner	Yankees	12.70%	19.80%	0.283	0.382	0.382	0.099	0.34	0.358
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	9.40%	16.80%	0.281	0.352	0.442	0.161	0.312	0.354
Chris Denorfia	Padres	9.00%	19.70%	0.288	0.352	0.471	0.183	0.321	0.354
Alfonso Soriano	Cubs	7.50%	25.50%	0.26	0.319	0.499	0.239	0.299	0.353
Kosuke Fukudome	Cubs	14.50%	19.10%	0.265	0.37	0.435	0.17	0.293	0.353
J.D. Drew	Red Sox	11.80%	23.70%	0.258	0.35	0.457	0.199	0.294	0.352
Matt Joyce	Rays	15.80%	26.20%	0.223	0.354	0.462	0.238	0.253	0.352
Austin Kearns	- - -	9.60%	26.30%	0.281	0.359	0.436	0.155	0.352	0.352
Seth Smith	Rockies	8.30%	18.00%	0.261	0.325	0.488	0.226	0.271	0.351
Vernon Wells	Blue Jays	7.10%	15.90%	0.267	0.32	0.499	0.232	0.273	0.351
Tyler Colvin	Cubs	7.40%	28.80%	0.251	0.31	0.505	0.254	0.289	0.351
Pat Burrell	- - -	12.70%	28.50%	0.256	0.348	0.47	0.215	0.299	0.35
Bobby Abreu	Angels	12.30%	21.20%	0.264	0.355	0.439	0.175	0.303	0.348
Brennan Boesch	Tigers	7.60%	21.60%	0.275	0.336	0.464	0.189	0.315	0.347
Darnell McDonald	Red Sox	8.30%	27.20%	0.272	0.339	0.437	0.165	0.345	0.347
Hunter Pence	Astros	6.20%	16.80%	0.284	0.328	0.472	0.188	0.306	0.347
Ryan Ludwick	- - -	8.20%	23.00%	0.272	0.338	0.468	0.196	0.312	0.347
Nick Markakis	Orioles	11.00%	15.60%	0.285	0.364	0.425	0.14	0.322	0.346
Justin Upton	Diamondbacks	11.10%	30.70%	0.268	0.352	0.442	0.173	0.346	0.346
Austin Jackson	Tigers	6.50%	27.80%	0.308	0.358	0.411	0.103	0.424	0.345
Mike Morse	Nationals	4.40%	22.50%	0.272	0.313	0.49	0.219	0.296	0.345
Alex Rios	White Sox	5.90%	15.60%	0.29	0.336	0.464	0.174	0.309	0.345
Fred Lewis	Blue Jays	7.50%	23.90%	0.271	0.337	0.442	0.171	0.333	0.343
Johnny Damon	Tigers	11.50%	17.50%	0.27	0.355	0.409	0.139	0.312	0.343
Jason Kubel	Twins	10.50%	22.10%	0.263	0.34	0.455	0.192	0.293	0.343
Corey Patterson	Orioles	6.80%	23.30%	0.277	0.331	0.426	0.149	0.337	0.342
Andruw Jones	White Sox	12.80%	26.60%	0.207	0.313	0.461	0.253	0.204	0.342
Bill Hall	Red Sox	8.90%	30.40%	0.24	0.309	0.471	0.232	0.275	0.342
David Murphy	Rangers	10.00%	17.70%	0.273	0.344	0.42	0.147	0.306	0.342
Ryan Spilborghs	Rockies	9.40%	25.50%	0.267	0.344	0.439	0.173	0.326	0.339
Shane Victorino	Phillies	6.70%	13.90%	0.256	0.314	0.441	0.185	0.267	0.338
Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	6.80%	13.20%	0.311	0.361	0.394	0.083	0.35	0.338
Ben Zobrist	Rays	14.20%	19.50%	0.256	0.363	0.363	0.107	0.295	0.337
B.J. Upton	Rays	11.20%	29.80%	0.237	0.325	0.411	0.174	0.309	0.337
Jason Bay	Mets	11.00%	26.10%	0.259	0.347	0.402	0.144	0.329	0.337
Brad Hawpe	Rockies	12.00%	26.30%	0.255	0.343	0.432	0.178	0.314	0.336
Eric Hinske	Braves	10.80%	27.30%	0.248	0.335	0.446	0.198	0.3	0.336
Michael Cuddyer	Twins	9.20%	15.20%	0.276	0.343	0.428	0.152	0.304	0.335
Laynce Nix	Reds	7.60%	23.90%	0.284	0.339	0.452	0.168	0.351	0.335