Jose Bautista, Best of the Best?

Wow.

Last night Jose Bautista hit his 17th and 18th homeruns of the season. His fantastic start to this season has kicked off (ouch, sorry Football Fans) a debate not on whether he is for real (no longer much doubt about that) but if Bautista might be the best player in MLB! I'm not quiteready to take the title from Albert Pujols just yet. But I have to admit, Bautista is looking a lot like Pujols' Buster Douglas.

As of this writing, Bautista is hitting .364/.509/.841 with 18 homers, 37 runs, 31 RBI, and even five stolen bases. This complemented by a 22.2 percent walk rate, and just a 15.9 strikeout percentage. His .323 BABIP is high (a career high for him) but not not so high you might start calling him absurdly lucky or anything. Obviously, you'll have a tough time adding him to your fantasy team if you haven't already. If you own him he is no doubt worth whatever you paid.

A few Bautista links followed by other links you may be interested to read.

Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL?
Essentially what it comes down to is how much weight you put on the most recent performance. If you think Bautista’s eight month power binge is evidence that he’s a changed hitter, then it’s hard to get away from the conclusion that he has passed Miguel Cabrera and is now the best hitter in the American League. More conservative types might want to see him keep this up a little bit longer before making drastic changes in their evaluations. I’m not sure either side has enough evidence to be clearly right or wrong, honestly.

José Bautista breaks down a life-changing home run, explaining the power swing that’s made him a star

“Last year was magical for me,” he says, settling by his locker in Dunedin, as footage of his homer loads on a laptop. “I made a lot of adjustments and some other things fell into place.” But to count among the perennial greats—that’s been his dream since he was five years old. “You have one great season,” he says with a smile. “Why wouldn’t you want to repeat it?”

Long-toss debate shakes up MLB draft

The Owasso, Okla., native surged to the head of the high school class this year thanks to a fastball that reached 100 mph this season, a beyond-his-years cutter and the sort of mature approach scouts believe can land him in the major leagues by 2013. Dylan Bundy’s ascent toward the end of the spring sent him to the top of at least one American League team’s draft board, according to a scouting director, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein called him the top talent available.

Eric Hosmer And The Gathering Horde

The argument for Eric Hosmer, though, is simply that he was dominating Triple-A to such an extent that he simply had nothing left to learn against minor league pitching, and keeping him in the minors would hinder his development. Most hitting prospects – even most top hitting prospects – are not finished products as rookies. Yes, there’s a chance that Hosmer is Albert Pujols, who was one of the five best players in baseball on his first day in the major leagues – but more likely than not, he’ll be a better player as a sophomore than he is as a rookie. The more reps he gets this year against major league pitching, the more likely he is to go off on the league next year – and next year, the Royals will want their best team on the field from day one, because next year their playoff odds figure to be a lot higher than 10%.

Updates on Strasburg, Ankiel, Wang, Perez
Stephen Strasburg was in Washington yesterday for a scheduled check-up with Nationals orthopedist Wiemi Douoguih and will begin throwing off a bullpen mound "any day now," according to general manager Mike Rizzo.

This Just In: The Mariners Suck!

For a season and a good part of two months, the Mariners have had pitching and known what they lacked - offense. So they broke camp this year with Milton Bradley batting third and Jack Cust at DH. Now Miguel Olivo has batted cleanup and so has journeyman infielder Adam Kennedy. Chone Figgins has been, as the Cleveland broadcast team said last week, "a bitter disappointment."
Fixing the Royals Lineup...

You may recall that when Eric Hosmer was called up, I suggested that he bat leadoff. This led to a discussion with Nate Bukaty and Steven St. John on 810 WHB, with Nate suggesting that for clubhouse reasons it wasn’t practical to lead off with Hosmer, but that you might be able to do it with Alex Gordon. Which was fine with me. At this stage of their careers, Hosmer and Gordon are pretty similar offensive players – left-handed hitters who can hit for a good average, will take a walk, and have power to the gaps if not to the bleachers, and while neither one is a threat for 40 steals, they both have the speed to take the extra base and occasionally catch the opponents napping with a steal.

Sean Burroughs Returns to MLB
Son of former major leaguer Jeff Burroughs, who hit 240 home runs and was AL MVP in 1974, the younger Burroughs led his team to Little League World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. By the time he was 18, he was nearly his dad's size at 6-2, 200, and when he was selected ninth overall in the 1998 draft, he turned down an offer to play college ball at USC to sign with the Padres.

When the Noise Becomes Interesting...

You do not have to search far to find a fantasy baseball analyst warning against trusting the noise generated during Spring Training. "He's in the best shape of his life" and "I'm definitely going to steal 40 bases this season" are the phrases that make us drool but are probably best ignored. It is about ignoring the subjective and concentrating on the facts. Nothing wrong with that. But once in a while the objective case needs the subjective ideas to form a complete picture.

LINK

According an arrest affidavit, a deputy spotted a car [Miguel] Cabrera was driving, smoking on the side of Okeechobee Road in Ft. Pierce, about 100 miles southeast of the Tigers' spring-training base in Lakeland. Cabrera had an odor of alcohol on his breath, his eyes were bloodshot and watery, and his speech was heavily slurred, according to the report.

In the arrest affidavit, deputies said Cabrera repeated, “Do you know who I am? You don’t know anything about my problems.” Cabrera then picked up a bottle of James Buchanan’s Scotch whiskey and started drinking, according to the report.

Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. He is not willing to admit that at this point. The Tigers believed that they had nipped this problem in the bud after the 2009 incident. A stern talking to and a few apologies were never going to be enough to truly solve this problem. How do I know he has a problem with alcohol? If you get in trouble with the police because of your drinking, even if it is only once in every 365 nights you go drinking, you have a problem. But if you're paying attention you'll note that this is me applying my thoughts to to the facts about Cabrera. We are not supposed to do this.

If the Detroit Tigers think that a week of "rehab" is enough to address Cabrera's problems, they aren't taking his alcoholism seriously. The Tigers are now saying that he may make his Spring debut on Monday. 'Nuff said.

Now does that mean that Miguel Cabrera shouldn't be your first round pick? Tough to say. I have been criticized in the past for suggesting that I wouldn't draft Cabrera because of his untreated alcohol problems. In addition, I don't think he takes his position as the leader of the Tigers offense seriously. I don't believe he gives much consideration to conditioning. None of that makes him a bad person or even a bad player but in my opinion he is a serious risk to dash a fantasy team's championship hopes. It's 50/50, in the first round I want better odds.


LINK

At his long-awaited physical exam and official weigh-in Friday, [Pablo] Sandoval tipped the scales at 240 pounds, according to Ethan Banning of Triple Threat Performance, which coordinated his offseason conditioning regimen.

Sandoval weighed 278 pounds at the end of last season. He also reduced his body fat measurement from 30 percent to 19 percent, Banning said.

"That's not Mr. Universe, but it's a long way from where he was," Banning said.

Banning estimated that the 5-foot-11 Sandoval gained nearly seven pounds of muscle on the highly disciplined nutrition and training plan, so his total fat loss was closer to 45 pounds.

It is tough not to love Pablo Sandoval. Not only does he obviously love playing baseball, he looks like a lot of us. So when we hear that Kung-Fu Panda is in the best shape of his life, we cheer for him and then we ignore it. It won't improve his plate discipline after all.

I'm certain you'll let me know if any of the following subjective thoughts on Pablo Sandoval and his weight-loss/transformation stop making sense:

1. His agility and ability to play defense is likely to improve, at least to the level it was in 2009. In case you missed it, Sandoval was benched last year because of his defense, not his bat. So, he'll get more at-bats.
   
2. His endurance should improve. He should be stronger later in games and should require fewer late-inning substitutions. So, he'll get more at-bats.
3. His confidence is soaring. As we know, half of baseball is 90 percent mental.
   

What is the most important thing a player needs to have for offensive success? That's right, tons of at-bats. Sandoval is an excellent contact hitter who has good power (maybe even better now after training with Barry Bonds' boys) who looks like he'll get a ton of bats. Not only do I think Sandoval being in the best shape of his life is significant, I think it is the primary reason we can expect a big bounce-back season.

From the Process Report:

Bautista had a fantastic season and would have qualified for free agency at season’s end. Instead, the Jays essentially replace Vernon Wells’ dollars with a lone commitment and an equally risky one at that. There are no early opt-out or buyout opportunities involved here. Even if you just look at when Bautista got playing time and ignore that he couldn’t break into the lineup while playing for some extraordinarily poor teams, here’s what you’ll find:

Season (PA)/TAv/wOBA/OPS
2006 (469): .261/.326/.755
2007 (614): .269/.331/.753
2008 (424): .256/.311/.718
2009 (404): .272/.339/.757
2010 (683): .331/.422/.995

Bautista is an above average offensive player most years, but not by much. He appears to be a negative on defense, although his flexibility is a nice asset, and this is his 30-year-old season –leaving little doubt he will decline over the length of the deal. A replication of 2010 is highly unlikely, so being an above average player for the duration is the perfect world outcome. More likely? He earns some surplus on the front side and the Jays are ready to get rid of the deal by 2015.

When Jose Bautista signed his big new contract this week it was trashed by many of the smartest writers around. They look at the stats and see that Bautista's 2010 season sticks out like a sore thumb. It must be a fluke! How can a player go from slightly above average to suddenly great?

You won't always find the answer in the stats. Instead you need to look closer. Jose Bautista may have struggled to find a full-time role while with the Pittsburgh Pirates but think about that. The Pirates? They haven't won meaningful games in a decade and haven't done it two straight seasons in two decades. They are routinely trashed for making lousy personnel decisions. Until very recently they've struggled to develop major league talent despite having top picks in every draft of the last 20 years and certainly lacked the ability to coach them up. Even with the Pirates a closer look would have revealed a slightly flawed player with good power. The Blue Jays saw a decent player they could turn into a better one (the Red Sox did too, just sayin').

You can check out this detailed explanation by Frankie Piliere for the specifics. But the mechanical changes are very real and they matter. If he can maintain them there is no reason he can't remain at a new level of effectiveness. This isn't noise, these are facts.

I like that the Blue Jays signed Jose Bautista. Yes, it is a bit of a gamble but guys that can smack 50 homers a season are especially rare in the post-steroid era. If he has a strong follow-up season he would have gotten at least that and more. He can hit, hit for power and field two positions very well. This is not the next Vernon Wells contract.

Spring Training Points of Interest

And we're back...

Isn't Spring Training freakin' awesome? I love it. This is the time of year when I rarely watch any show that isn't on the MLB Network. So many rumors and stories to follow and many of them are fantasy relevant.

Michael Young is beginning to look like a future Florida Marlin. It seems odd to think that the Marlins would take on the salary of Young, and they are not likely to take on all of it, but they have become the favorites to acquire the Rangers' captain. The fish do have a huge hole at third base this year. They also have a ton of welfare money they've been sitting on. Young's numbers in Florida's pitching friendly stadium probably wouldn't be quite as good but he'd become a major part of a potentially awesome young lineup. If you aren't drooling over Mike Stanton's potential this season, you have not been paying attention.

Here are five other stories that should interest you:

The Top 50 Fantasy Sports Blogs

I would have linked to this article anyway, but being included on the list flattered and amazed me. I'll be checking out many of these sites myself. I wish I'd known about some of the basketball blogs a few months ago.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols

Some fans are starting to call Albert Pujols greedy for his contract demands but I don't think so. Most fantasy baseball participants understand that Pujols is the best everyday player in the game. You would be hard pressed to find any negatives on Pujols. This isn't Jayson Werth getting an inflated contract, this is the best player in the game looking to get appropriate compensation.

What Position will Jose Bautista Claim?

I've already covered what I think of Jose Bautista's ability to repeat his amazing power show in 2011. But will it happen at third base or in the outfield? The outfield is surprisingly shallow in deeper leagues where everyone is looking for five starters. Third base is pretty deep these days especially if you include some of the great prospects like Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Moustakas. I vote for the outfield.

Can A.J. Burnett get it back?

I think so. Burnett has bounced back before so he can do it again. Plus, it is being kept quiet but apparently he dealt with a load of personal problems last season that threw off his focus. A.J. is also a pitcher that needs to be clicking with his catcher and that has been tough for him with the Yankees. I think Russell Martin can help here if he is healthy and effective.

Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau Comebacks in the Works

This may shock you. I'm am far more confident in the return of Joe Nathan to dominating closer than I am Justin Morneau to top notch first baseman. Nathan is already tossing the ball 90 miles-per-hour and swears he'll be ready to start the season. The Twins may want to hedge that bet but Nathan looks good and talks a great game. Justin Morneau has concussion problems that the thing about head injuries is that they don't just go away. In fact each concussion makes the next one ore likely. Scary thought.

I have an article on late round starting pitchers that has been in the works for a few weeks almost ready to go and the annual sleepers article will be posted very soon as well. Join the site by clicking the panel in the right side bar, go ahead, everyone is doing it.

The Truth About Jose Bautista's 2010 Season

There is already a lot of debate on message boards about Jose Bautista's place in fantasy drafts going into the 2011 season. So far, drafters seem to be betting on a repeat of 2010's homer barrage. As a third round pick Bautista needs to return a value around $20 to $25 in standard AL-only leagues. He was valued around $32 in 2010.

To properly judge Bautista's ability to repeat his performance I think we need to know what he did differently. Stats tell us part of the story but without a root cause it becomes very easy to predict a large regression, to something closer to his career levels. Not that his career levels are bad. The 2010 season was one of Bautista's few opportunities to be an everyday starter. Using his career fly ball and HR/FB rates and projecting 500 at-bats Bautista comes out at 32 homers. That's probably a good baseline expectation for 2011 but some of us would like to see better.

Bautista owes much of his success to Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy who showed Bautista during the 2009 season that he was late on nearly every pitch. This made him easier to strike out as well as reducing his production rates. Murphy and Bautista worked on fixing his swing throughout the 2009 season and when he received regular at-bats in September of 2009 he hit ten homers from September 6th to the end of the season. Then he played winter ball to cement the changes into his muscle memory. He even changed his off season workouts from a power lifting routine to a regimen based on polymetrics and cardio with the aid of his Dominican trainer, Kelvin Terrero.

Frankie Piliere, a former scout for the Texas Rangers and presently writing for FanHouse.com breaks down the changes far better than I could:

The first part of Bautista's new setup is rather simple. Compared to past years, he is slightly closer to the plate with his back foot. He's not a player that uses the whole field exceptionally well, but he also trusts his hands and knows that he can spin on the best inner-half fastball. So, what he appears to have done is edged his way up on the plate and cut off parts of the zone that pitchers once were able to exploit. It's a subtle one- or two-inch difference, but that small movement up on the plate has allowed him to build on a strength.

Then there is the slight change in his lower half. A little more straight up and down in 2009, Bautista is now in a bit more of a crouch and sitting more on his back leg. His bat angle in his setup is worth pointing out as well. At an angle closer to 45 degrees last season, it's close to flattened out now. Overall, it appears he has made an effort to get his top hand more involved and get his hands moving through the zone quicker in general. To do that, he has put his hands in a higher position and is creating much more leverage. Rather than low and close to his body, we now see him with his hands not just higher but also further away from his body. So, before he even begins his swing, he is in a stronger, loaded position with his hands back.

Take a good look at the way Albert Pujols reads and reacts mechanically to a pitch inside and you'll see some extreme similarities. Pujols does not use a leg kick, but once Bautista's foot is down, the similarities show up in a big way.

"I was getting ready way too late and the ball was beating me to the strike zone," Bautista said. "When I wasn't playing every day, making the adjustments was really tough because I wasn't seeing the results."

The changes outlined above make the statistical changes easier to understand. With that understanding comes the ability to believe Bautista can repeat them or at least come close enough that we can bid on the side of the over of our earlier baseline for homers.

The uptick in contact rate is the easiest to believe. With Bautista getting better looks and improving his timing, it is only natural that he would make better contact. Manager Cito Gaston's call for more balls hit in the air leads to an improved fly ball rate. Better timing and improved contact leads organically to the improved HR/FB which together with more flyballs leads to 54 homeruns.

I'm calling myself a believer in Jose Bautista. I think there will be some regression but not enough to call Bautista a fluke or a potential bust. I think 35-40homers is a good bet and a repeat of 2010 is not out of the question.
Information for this article was gathered from many sources including these great articles:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_lemire/08/04/jose.bautista/index.html
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/why-jose-bautista-is-for-real/
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/24/altered-swing-mechanics-key-to-jose-bautistas-home-run-binge/

Jarrett Hoffpauir: Toronto's Third Baseman

UPDATE: The Toronto Blue Jays have designated Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. I'm not certain why this happened after he seemed to take the demotion in the right spirit. This could be something that his agent instigated but that is purely guesswork. I imagine we'll hear more on this in the next few days.

From the Seattle PI:

Toronto, ON (Sports Network) - The Toronto Blue Jays have designated third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. Encarnacion, 27, was batting .200 with nine home runs and 22 RBI in 37 games this season. He was sidelined from April 15 through May 17 because of a sore right shoulder and missed 30 games during that stretch. Toronto acquired Encarnacion from Cincinnati in a four-player deal at the trade deadline last year. He has a career .257 average with 88 home runs and 308 RBI.

The Toronto Blue Jays sent Edwin Encarnacion to the minors on Sunday. After several years in the majors it must be a major blow to his ego. However disappointed Encarnacion may be, this demotion may ultimately be the best thing for him. He is still young and still holds the potential to become an excellent power-hitting third baseman.

To replace Encarnacion on the 25-man roster, the Blue Jays have recalled 27-year old Jarrett Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir grew up in the St. Louis Cardinals' system. He was fairly successful in a short stint with the major league last year. He hit .250/.438/.417 with one homer in 16 plate appearances. His career minor league line is .288/.366/.427 in 2,509 at-bats. Those are not superstar numbers but they show competence with the bat.

Older players like Hoffpauir typically need to hit well immediately to extend their opportunities. In this case it is more likely to be bad defense than a weak bat that keeps Hoffpauir on the bench. However, in AL-only leagues I think Hoffpauir represents a good risk. He should get to play a few games right away. If he can play decent defense, manager Cito Gaston will have no reason to sit him in favor of the slumping Jose Bautista.