Down the Stretch: The Top Starting Pitchers of 2010

Stephen Strasburg is already at the top of this list. However, he still needs to show he has the durability to produce over the course of a long season. Francisco Liriano is back to being one of the best in the game two years after his Tommy John Surgery. Josh Johnson is also proof that TJS is no longer a death sentence for a pitcher. It is however, hell on keeper lists.

Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	12.18	2.25	5.41	0.66	1.07	0.338	72.70%	2.91	2.1	2.17
Francisco Liriano	Twins	9.81	2.97	3.3	0.18	1.28	0.35	72.80%	3.45	2.33	3
Josh Johnson	Marlins	8.7	2.2	3.95	0.37	1.08	0.301	78.90%	2.36	2.52	3.26
Cliff Lee	- - -	7.78	0.57	13.73	0.67	0.98	0.301	69.60%	3.09	2.55	3.28
Roy Halladay	Phillies	8.09	1.09	7.44	0.7	1.02	0.301	82.20%	2.22	2.75	2.89
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	8.09	2.22	3.64	0.52	1	0.265	81.20%	2.18	2.86	3.18
Brett Anderson	Athletics	6.71	1.43	4.7	0.43	1.13	0.307	74.90%	2.86	2.9	3.36
Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	9.78	3.79	2.58	0.5	1.34	0.332	72.20%	3.28	2.99	3.49
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	8.46	2.47	3.43	0.62	1.11	0.29	76.40%	2.47	3.03	3.26
Tommy Hanson	Braves	8.29	2.76	3	0.47	1.26	0.322	70.30%	3.53	3.12	4.07
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	8.29	3.51	2.36	0.43	1.1	0.26	77.40%	2.66	3.13	3.75
Mat Latos	Padres	9.08	2.52	3.6	0.82	0.98	0.252	84.00%	2.33	3.15	3.4
Brandon Morrow	Blue Jays	10.81	4.06	2.66	0.66	1.36	0.341	69.10%	4.39	3.18	3.7
Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	7.04	3.16	2.23	0.36	1.31	0.312	71.40%	3.16	3.2	4.21
Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	7.58	3.08	2.46	0.43	1.32	0.32	71.50%	3.7	3.21	3.91
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	9.53	3.94	2.42	0.55	1.25	0.298	76.30%	3.07	3.22	3.89
Jon Lester	Red Sox	9.17	3.2	2.86	0.66	1.18	0.295	74.40%	3.26	3.24	3.35
Felipe Paulino	Astros	7.95	4.5	1.77	0.21	1.51	0.338	61.40%	4.4	3.24	4.59
Zack Greinke	Royals	7.66	1.97	3.89	0.78	1.2	0.313	67.20%	3.83	3.3	3.72
Jered Weaver	Angels	9.78	2.43	4.02	1.09	1.11	0.295	75.90%	3.21	3.31	3.55
Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	7.23	2.22	3.26	0.7	1.22	0.309	68.70%	3.56	3.32	3.6
Roy Oswalt	- - -	8.26	2.38	3.47	0.83	1.1	0.28	74.50%	3.22	3.34	3.48
Justin Verlander	Tigers	8.45	3.33	2.54	0.63	1.24	0.298	73.30%	3.65	3.34	4.06
Tim Lincecum	Giants	9.46	3.5	2.7	0.77	1.35	0.331	75.10%	3.72	3.35	3.43
Tom Gorzelanny	Cubs	8.2	3.98	2.06	0.48	1.45	0.334	70.40%	3.82	3.35	4.21
Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	7.07	3.44	2.06	0.45	1.25	0.287	75.70%	2.42	3.37	3.74
John Danks	White Sox	6.95	2.78	2.5	0.59	1.15	0.275	73.10%	3.31	3.37	4.05
Gavin Floyd	White Sox	7.44	2.76	2.7	0.66	1.32	0.32	70.20%	3.91	3.4	3.76
Colby Lewis	Rangers	8.7	2.79	3.12	0.84	1.17	0.291	75.60%	3.4	3.4	3.89
Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	7.76	3.18	2.44	0.59	1.28	0.304	72.20%	3.5	3.4	3.6
David Price	Rays	8.33	3.71	2.25	0.57	1.26	0.292	76.20%	2.97	3.41	4
R.A. Dickey	Mets	6.06	2.21	2.74	0.64	1.17	0.285	77.70%	2.64	3.44	3.69
Johan Santana	Mets	6.59	2.55	2.58	0.67	1.18	0.283	79.10%	2.94	3.48	4.34
Brett Myers	Astros	7.03	2.58	2.73	0.76	1.23	0.297	75.40%	3.08	3.51	3.76
Jeff Francis	Rockies	5.73	1.94	2.95	0.68	1.27	0.31	64.40%	4.56	3.53	3.96
Jhoulys Chacin	Rockies	9.28	4.27	2.18	0.64	1.28	0.291	70.50%	3.63	3.53	3.72
Doug Fister	Mariners	4.99	1.69	2.96	0.63	1.25	0.305	67.40%	3.87	3.57	4.21
Jason Hammel	Rockies	7.32	2.4	3.05	0.82	1.3	0.32	69.40%	4.35	3.57	3.75
Matt Cain	Giants	7.01	2.81	2.49	0.72	1.14	0.269	74.80%	3.07	3.57	4.38
Wandy Rodriguez	Astros	7.69	2.97	2.59	0.73	1.35	0.324	67.50%	4	3.58	3.8
CC Sabathia	Yankees	7.24	2.93	2.48	0.72	1.22	0.288	77.00%	3.02	3.59	3.88
Clayton Richard	Padres	7.1	3.61	1.97	0.56	1.4	0.316	76.10%	3.55	3.6	4.13
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	7.35	4.01	1.84	0.44	1.21	0.263	74.10%	3.02	3.6	4.25
Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	6.2	3.42	1.81	0.45	1.2	0.265	79.40%	2.26	3.61	4.21
Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	7.49	3.97	1.89	0.56	1.27	0.279	75.80%	3.24	3.63	4.14
Travis Wood	Reds	7.19	2.49	2.88	0.88	0.98	0.23	67.20%	3.38	3.71	4.33
Dallas Braden	Athletics	5.64	1.77	3.18	0.82	1.15	0.281	70.60%	3.49	3.72	4.16
Carlos Silva	Cubs	6.33	1.92	3.3	0.83	1.24	0.306	72.40%	3.92	3.73	3.95
Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	8.5	1.73	4.9	1.33	1.23	0.323	72.90%	4.22	3.75	3.48
Carl Pavano	Twins	5.19	1.53	3.39	0.84	1.16	0.285	73.90%	3.56	3.76	3.93
John Ely	Dodgers	6.67	2.82	2.36	0.79	1.32	0.306	65.80%	4.63	3.78	3.98
Shaun Marcum	Blue Jays	7.51	1.97	3.82	1.13	1.13	0.284	73.60%	3.7	3.83	3.94
Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	6.98	2.49	2.8	0.88	1.15	0.275	79.90%	2.88	3.83	3.81
Luke Hochevar	Royals	6.58	3.23	2.04	0.69	1.38	0.312	62.40%	4.96	3.84	4.22
Joel Pineiro	Angels	5.69	2.19	2.59	0.89	1.31	0.306	71.70%	4.18	3.88	3.87
Livan Hernandez	Nationals	4.74	2.88	1.65	0.59	1.31	0.288	75.70%	3.36	3.89	4.77
Tim Hudson	Braves	4.86	2.89	1.68	0.56	1.1	0.239	83.50%	2.28	3.89	4
Max Scherzer	Tigers	8.34	3.61	2.31	0.93	1.31	0.297	72.80%	3.73	3.91	4.02
Dan Haren	- - -	8.43	1.82	4.63	1.39	1.32	0.339	72.00%	4.45	3.91	3.63
Jonathon Niese	Mets	7.17	2.8	2.56	0.91	1.33	0.313	78.80%	3.33	3.92	3.93
Brett Cecil	Blue Jays	6.44	2.84	2.27	0.9	1.23	0.28	72.80%	3.8	3.92	4.18
Mike Pelfrey	Mets	5.2	3.11	1.67	0.6	1.45	0.316	74.00%	3.82	3.93	4.41
Cole Hamels	Phillies	9.22	2.71	3.4	1.3	1.23	0.304	81.10%	3.47	3.95	3.49
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	7	2.96	2.37	0.93	1.2	0.274	80.70%	2.88	3.96	4.05
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Red Sox	7.86	4.12	1.91	0.76	1.32	0.286	70.80%	4.19	3.96	4.64
Jason Vargas	Mariners	5.68	2.49	2.29	0.89	1.2	0.273	75.90%	3.43	3.97	4.7
Bud Norris	Astros	9.27	3.83	2.42	1.04	1.43	0.331	63.80%	5.03	3.98	3.91
Scott Baker	Twins	7.42	1.96	3.79	1.25	1.33	0.327	71.80%	4.63	3.99	4
Jair Jurrjens	Braves	6.25	2.94	2.13	0.85	1.29	0.291	67.60%	4.36	3.99	4.52
John Lackey	Red Sox	6.05	3.24	1.87	0.74	1.49	0.328	70.50%	4.51	4	4.51

2010 Sleeper Alert: Francisco Liriano

Photo from fOTOGLIF

After his 2006 season it seemed certain that Francisco Liriano would never again be put into the category of a sleeper pick. However, after his 2009 performance (5.80/4.87 ERA/FIP) that is exactly what he is. In fact, most owners have been down on him according to early mock drafts. But that is changing, mostly due to Liriano's stunning performance in the Dominican Winter League for Leones del Escogido. Dominican League statistics are hard to come by but at the end of last week Liriano was in the midst of an impressive streak that included 26 and 2/3 scoreless innings and 35 strikeouts in 27 and 2/3 innings. Last night he struck out 10 batters over five scoreless innings against Gigantes del Cibao to claim the Dominican League title in the deciding ninth game of the series at Julian Javier Stadium in San Francisco de Macorís. He allowed just one hit and improved to 3-1 with a 0.49 ERA. This brought his season totals to 47 strikeouts in just 37 innings.

If I was ever off Liriano's bandwagon, I am clearly back on it. In 2009 Liriano suffered through what the Minnesota Twins labeled Elbow Fatigue, which led to some swelling in his forearm, that led to his DL stint. Some player take more time than others to recover from injury. It is very possible that Liriano simply came back too soon, and put too much stress on his Tommy John repaired elbow. This season he will be more than two years removed and judging by his recent performances in the Dominican he has got that special something back. Combine this good news with the Twins' improved infield defense and the new stadium (with real grass) that should benefit pitchers and the possibilities are soaring.

However owners should still exercise caution in drafting Liriano, who has to be considered injury prone. Still, he should be squarely in every owner's radar. When you're considering the John Maines, Aaron Harangs, and for your fantasy roster you may want to check on the availibility of the Twins young lefty first.

Other opinions on Francisco Liriano:

David Golebiewski of Fangraghs.com - Don’t forget Liriano. Exasperating as he is, he figures to post an ERA in the low-to-mid four’s in 2010. He’ll be back. That fastball needs an upgrade, however, if he hopes to terminate opposing batters.

Tim Brown of Yahoo.com - While at first glance the White Sox and Tigers have the better starting rotations in the Central, Francisco Liriano will be pivotal. Reports out of the Dominican Republic say Liriano has regained his velocity and the late bite on his slider. The Twins are eager to see for themselves. In the meantime, he’s behind Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Carl Pavano, and battling Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins for the fifth place in the rotation.

NBC Sports/ Rotoworld - Liriano looked incredibly sharp, hitting 95 MPH consistently with his fastball and displaying a tight break on his slider. The 26-year-old lefty had a lousy 2009 campaign, but the Twins have to be pleased with the way he looked tonight. Liriano should have no trouble climbing back into the club's starting rotation with a strong spring and is quickly turning into a legitimate fantasy sleeper. We all know what kind of dominance he's capable of.

Question: Can Liriano and Lester Recover?

Dear Jon,

My name is Max Estes and I found your website through mlbtraderumors.com on Monday and I REALLY enjoy it! I have two conundrums in a extremely competitive head-to-head 7x7 (Runs, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, IP, W, L. Save, Strike Outs, ERA and WHIP) keeper (10 keepers plus 1 minor leaguer) league of which I am the commissioner. I could use your guidance. The categories I'm having some trouble in are AVG, SLG, Saves and sometimes SB. I received an offer from another manager where I would get Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano and Matt Lindstrom for Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester.

I was thinking about taking out Verlander for either Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard. What is your opinion of those trades. Also I have an offer of I get Marco Scuturo for Gary Sheffield. I need an IF more than an OF but I could use the power. If you need any more information or more players on my team please let me know. Thank you in advance for helping me.

Max Estes

Hey Max,

Thanks for checking out the site and deciding to stick round. I appreciate it a lot. I need to thank Tim Dierkes, he's been sending a lot of readers my way lately. But to your trades...

Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano, and Matt Lindstrom

for

Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester

You did not include any prices or rounds so I'm going to assume that they do not matter in regards to who you choose to keep. If that assumption is wrong just let me know but for now I'm going to evaluate the trade as if you could keep anyone you choose without penalty.

Carlos Beltran is the best player in the deal by far, despite Hunter Pence having his strongest season yet. Unfortunately, being a Houston Astro sort of limits the Runs and RBI potential. A Rule of Thumb for Fantasy Baseball trading is that if you gain the best player in the deal you win the trade. They call it a Rule of Thumb because that isn't always a very accurate measure. Both players are hitting for very good averages, both are hitting for power (although not as much as we might hope as far as homeruns are concerned), and both are stealing a few bases. Beltran is just better in all of those categories. Beltran would be an upgrade over Pence but not a mind-blowing one.



Francisco Liriano is having a very tough season. His control is way off which is much more damaging than any perceived loss of stuff. He is having a degree of bad luck but a FIP of 4.88 indicates it is a bit more than just bad luck. He also seems to have abandoned his change-up. Which is resulting in more flyballs hit on his fastball, which resulted in a higher homerun rate. That's a major mistake for him and something that is easily fixed assuming he hasn't lost the feel for the pitch somehow. This could have a lot to do with Joe Mauer's absence for most of the first two months of the season. It's hard to judge based on one start but in his May 25th start his control seemed to be back and the result was zero walks, and seven strikeouts (and 11 hits) in just four innings. There were also small signs of recovery in the few starts before that one. It is based on a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet Liriano is about to enter a very strong stretch of pitching.

You would also receive the Florida Marlins closer, Matt Lindstrom. He may be a closer but Lindstrom is not going to help you in any category except saves. His control has been about as bad as it could be. I'm shocked he hasn't lost the role to one of the Marlins' many prospects. But you need saves and he does get them.

You would be giving up Justin Verlander who is pitching great and Jon Lester who has had disappointing results thus far. Believe it or not Verlander has been pretty unfortunate this season. His BABIP is bloated at .339 and his LOB percentage is just 64.9 compared to his career mark of 71.5 percent. In short, Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. As bad as Verlander's luck has been, Jon Lester's has been much worse. Lester's .379 BABIP has been a huge hindrance to his owners. That and a 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has ruined his results. Balls that were harmless infield flies last year (12.9% in 2008, 4.8% in 2009) are now being launched out of the park. This is going to turn around soon. It has to, or Lester could be the causulty of the return of John Smoltz who is looking very good in his rehab starts. The Red Sox also have Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden pitching great in the minors.

You are going to lose quite a bit from your pitching staff if you make this deal but I understand that this is your strength. Exchanging Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard (both are pitching pretty good) for Verlander would help make it a bit better for you and still provide your trading partner a significant upgrade over what he was getting before. If you can get him to make the switch from Verlander I would do the deal. It has some risk, but I think you'll get enough of an upgrade where you need it (SLG, Saves, and Stolen Bases) to make it worth while. This is especially true if you believe (as I do) that Francisco Liriano will turn it around. Liriano is the key. If you believe, you can do this trade. If you don't believe then you should keep trying to re-work it.

As for the Marcus Scutaro and Gary Sheffield deal, I would just hang on to Sheffield. Scutaro is having a nice season, but I think it will all be downhill from here for him. Sheffield is going to get to play a lot and when he's playing well there are few better.

Good luck Max!