Originally produced for BigLeaguesMagazine (they're gone now :( )
Let history inform your choices
If you have access look back at past drafts and search for trends in
your fellow owners. Does one owner consistently draft young lefty
pitchers? Does another fixate on much publicized sleepers? Does yet
another owner always seem to have the best minor leaguers? Knowledge of
your rivals gives you a degree of power over them. Call out the names of
players that fit their typical plans early or force them to bid an
extra dollar or two. Many owners struggle to adjust when their draft
plans go awry. You can be the owner to make that happen. Let history be
your guide.
Have a plan…any plan
Even a bad plan is better than not having one. It could be as simple
as category goals to reach by the end of the draft (part of most good
plans). It could be more complicated than Warren Buffet’s tax returns.
The important thing is to have a plan of attack and to do your best to
implement it. Owners without some sort of plan are more likely to forget
about key players or to mess up their budgeting during an auction.
There are tons of ready-made plans you can use, just adjust them to your
league and the players available. If you need more ideas perform a web
search for fantasy baseball strategies. I love it when a plan comes
together.
Be ready to adjust when things do not go your way
Are you one of the more successful owners in your league? In many
leagues the best owners will find themselves in bidding wars over any
player they show even a smidge of interest in owning. Their rivals can
seem more concerned with messing them up than in actually building their
own winning teams. Having a decent Plan B can be the difference between
a good draft day and disaster. The best way to avoid the need for an
alternate plan is to have a plan with built-in options so that you are
not easily hurt by those plotting against you. Is that paranoia? Not if
they are out to get you.
Get your share of the Top Talent
In any draft there will be a few players that stand above the rest.
In keeper leagues it is very possible there are only four or five
players available with typical first round value. You should make a
point of acquiring at least your share of that top talent and ideally
you’ll be able to get someone else’s share of the top talent as well.
The better your keeper list the more important this becomes. You do not
want owners with weak keepers to be able to catch up to you just by
drafting more of the top talent. It is vital to identify the best
players available and decide how much of it you need to grab for
yourself. Never decide you have enough to win. Be greedy.
Watch the scarce positions closely
Shortstop and second base are very shallow positions this year and
though first base is deep the top tier is not deep at all and the fall
to the second tier is longer than usual in my opinion. The top tier at
first (in whatever order) looks like Joey Votto, Albert Pujols and
Prince Fielder with everyone in the second tier having some problem or
question about their potential production. At second base it looks like
Robinson Cano and everyone else. I love Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and
Jason Kipnis but each has issues that prevent them from being in the top
tier. Shortstop is just Jose Reyes and Pray Tulo Stays Healthy. There
is nothing wrong with being an elitist in fantasy baseball.
Yes, Starting Pitching is deeper but…
Many experienced owners have long practiced waiting until the
mid-rounds to start building their pitching staffs. With the number of
great young pitchers on the rise some owners have fooled themselves into
believing they can wait until the late rounds to collect starting
pitchers. That may be possible in some very shallow leagues but if you
want the opportunity to score big in the pitching categories you will
need to collect some of the top two tiers of starters rather than
settling for the leftovers. The pitchers at the end of the draft may
seem a lot better than in years past but the best pitchers are also a
lot better. So do not wait too long to get your first few starting
pitchers. Unless you like having the worst pitching in your fantasy
league that is.
Go ahead and pay for saves
If the top closers – Craig Kimbrel, Jason Motte, Rafael Soriano and
maybe Jonathan Papelbon – are available go ahead and buy one if the
price is not terribly inflated. The closer position is so unstable that
getting one of the top three guys could give you a huge advantage over
your competition. However, if you miss out on the top three, maybe four,
I suggest you wait and take the cheapest options available. Don’t avoid
the category altogether in your draft as too many people are watching
the waiver wire for possible saves these days. Your goal is to either
get the safest options or the cheapest ones. No one likes being in the
middle anyway.
Crave power above all things
The big homerun numbers have not gone away completely but when you
get past the first two tiers of players the homeruns are just not
available the way they used to be. Stolen bases on the other hand seem
to be available at the end of drafts. There are more and more players on
rosters (some do not even start) that can give you 10-20 stolen bases.
Power hitters are much rarer. I like to grab power hitters that steal
bases rather than devote any spots to pure base stealers. Those players
are obviously much coveted by smart owners. Make the most of your
dollars by avoiding the ones that could be batting average liabilities
and spending a few more bucks on the best available five category
hitters. Power does not just corrupt, it rules.
Stretch your draft day budget to the limit
Plan to own a few one dollar players. I try to create budget depth by
planning to have a least one dollar player in each position group – one
catcher, one corner, one middle infielder, one outfielder, one starting
pitcher and one relief pitcher. This gives me a greater opportunity to
own a top tier player in each position group as well. If you plan and
execute well your one dollar guys will also be excellent sleepers. I
often manage this by drafting young or inexperienced but also potential
laden players in those low budget spots. Last season C John Jaso, 3B
Kyle Seager, SS Everth Cabrera, OF Michael Saunders, SP Hisashi Iwakuma
RP Fernando Rodney were excellent one dollar choices (wow, the Mariners
dominated the end game!). Some early picks for dollar spots this season
are C Erik Kratz, 2B Matt Carpenter, 3B Brent Morel, SP David Phelps and
RP Sean Doolittle. If you can’t be rich, create the illusion that you
are.
Dominate the End Game
Owners should attempt to save enough auction dollars to allow you to
spend two or three bucks each on your last two or three players. This
will eliminate the possibility that you spend the end of the auction
getting outbid on players you can only nominate for a buck. At the end
of most draft days there are a few players that stand out from the
dregs. Perhaps talented rookies or veterans with uncertain playing time
are still on the board. Most owners would prefer to avoid drafting the
Michael Martinez types out of pure necessity so save a few bucks. Fill
your roster with talent at every opportunity. Make your draft good to
the very last spot.
