Fixing Drew Stubbs

When Paul O’Neil was still with the Cincinnati Reds he was not yet the player who led the New York Yankees during their 90’s Dynasty Years. Instead he was pressured by then manager Lou Piniella to pull the ball as often as possible in hopes that he would hit more homeruns. The results were mediocre. When the Yankees traded Roberto Kelly (my favorite player at the time) for O’Neil, I was quite mad about it. I would have bet anything at Sportsbetting.ag that the Yankees had just set back their re-building project by several years. I soon learned that Paul O’Neil was a much better player than I realized. The Yankees freed O’Neil to return to an all fields approach. Now Paul O’Neil is a treasured Yankee and is remembered as a great player.

I do not mean to suggest that Drew Stubbs will magically transform into the modern day Paul O’Neil (Ryan Braun?) now that he is in Cleveland. However, I do think he is a better player than the one the Reds basically threw away. The Reds tossed the Indians a player that was nearly without value at the plate in 2012. Stubbs batted just .213/.277/.333 last season. He walked less and struck out more. He hit more groundballs and infield flies and his lowest line drive rate ever. It was the worst season of a young player’s career.

Stubbs has a long swing that causes him to struggle to hit breaking pitches but especially the curveball and the changeup.  He swings at fewer pitches out of the zone than most players but he also makes worse contact when he does. He also swings at fewer pitches than most players both in and out of the zone and makes worse contact. 

Stubbs was drafted in 2006 out of the University of Texas. He was drafted just after players like Evan Longoria and Clayton Kershaw and before Tim Lincecum. According to Baseball America he was considered the best athlete, best defensive player, second-fastest base runner, and third-best power hitter among collegians. With a little tweaking and some hard work the Reds might have made Stubbs a better player before graduating him to the majors. Apparently the Reds were happy with Stubbs as he was and rushed him through the system in just over two seasons. He was placed into the hands of a manager who seemed to have little patience with young players. 

Since his call-up, Stubbs has displayed an excellent glove in center field, homerun power and a bunch of stolen bases. He has never hit for average in the majors (and did not do it much in the minors either) but his decent walk rates made his on-base percentage acceptable when combined with his other skills. Fantasy owners had no problem with his .250-.260 batting average because usually it came with around 15 homers and 30 stolen bases. But just like the Reds, fantasy owners abandoned him in droves when his average fell to .213 during the 2012 season.

As a player with both power and speed Stubbs can be expected to have a slightly higher than average BABIP and his career .323 BABIP fits. In 2012 his BABIP was just .290 which may be around average for most players but not for Stubbs. If nothing changes but his BABIP returns to the .330 level, Stubbs should have stats that resemble his 2010 and 2011 seasons. Hopefully is walk rate will rise back to its former level. His linedrives return and and he reduces those infield fly balls. The Indians would probably be happy with that. But if the Indians actually put some time in with Stubbs and worked on shortening his swing and improving his approach at the plate he could be even more than he was with the Reds. He could be the Cleveland version of Paul O’Neil.

Delmon Young, Joe Mauer and Stuff...

Delmon Young on a Roll

Delmon Young was once expected to become a major offensive baseball force. He was the next in a line of young stars that included Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, James Shields and others in the Tampa Bay Rays minor league system. He was questioned for having a bad attitude and being hard to coach, but no one doubted his potential. Four years later from that peak of interest he has yet to have much impact. He has been average at best and often much worse than that. But whereas the Rays quickly cut their loses the Minnesota Twins have stuck with him and there are signs that it is about to pay off for them and fantasy owners.

Young's mother died early this season of cancer, he received a week off. This is tough for anyone to deal with, so maybe we can understand a little better some of this season's lack of focus. To date, Young is batting .265/.292/.388 with 7 homeruns, 2 stolen bases, and three caught stealing. Though he has never been a very patient hitter (contrary to popular opinion this isn't the end of his usefulness as a hitter) Young's lack of power has been very disappointing. This is the stuff you probably already knew.

What you may not have realized is fairly significant. Like Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young has always had a slight hitch in his swing. This is something that Young has been working on since the end of last season. Changing your swing is one of the most difficult (and dangerous for your production) things that a hitter can do. Some hitters manage it easily some are forever fiddling trying to find what works again. Since the All-Star Break Young has hit .265/.292/.515 which is not amazing but a huge step up from his first half. In July he hit .313/.343/.500 and .269/.296/.558 in August. This is not mind-blowing statistically but it is progress. When you combine his statistical progress with the recent comments by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire praising Young for his change in attitude and the work he has put in working with the the coaching staff, it gives you hope that his potential is still in reach. Young is still just 24-years old, an age where most prospects are still at triple-A. Young of course has spent the last three seasons in the major leagues. I'm looking at a huge breakout in the 2010 season.

Your American League MVP is Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer is a beast. Right now he is the best player in baseball. Yes, better than Albert Pujols. In fact Mauer could be having the best season ever for a catcher. Better than Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, or Ivan Rodriguez or any catcher in history has ever recorded.

Random Bits and Pieces

The New York Yankees may not get center fielder Brett Gardner back as soon as expected. His doctors suggested that he keep the splint on his thumb another week. So under even the most optimistic program he's another couple of weeks away. But lefty reliever Damaso Marte may be back on Friday. Don't drop Gardner unless you absolutely must. The Yankees could use his fresh legs in the last few weeks of the season to rest the older knees of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.

Ed DeCaria of BaseballHQ.com has just completed a two-part study of the correlation between pitching performance and wins. In an attempt to see what factors matter most in predicting wins. The results are a bit unsatisfying (after a whole lot of math and charting he never manages better than a 50/50 shot at predicting wins) but the articles are interesting and may make it easier to understand what makes the best pitchers tick if you have access to HQ.

Mike Hampton, who has been useful at times this season, has a torn rotator cuff. He has chosen to go the rehab route rather than have surgery. You can hardly blame him. After missing huge chunks of the last five years the idea of another serious surgery and lengthy rehab had to be daunting. I doubt he'll be of any use the rest of the season and I would be very hesitant to draft him in 2010.

Drew Stubbs (Cincinnati Reds center field prospect) has been promoted to the majors today. He should be in the majors to stay. It is actually a little shocking that the Reds did not promote him earlier considering his nice production in the minors and the Reds' needs in the outfield. He still needs to cut down the strikeouts but has begun to take walks at a decent rate and should continue to improve. He is already a better hitter than Wily Tavares. He should provide his owners with boatloads of steals.

Arizona Diamondbacks manager AJ Hinch is excited about the potential of the club's likely September callups. In particular he mentioned first base prospect Brandon Allen, who is hitting .341 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 35 games with Triple-A Reno since the D-backs acquired him from the White Sox. Also, outfielder Cole Gillespie who has hit .325 for triple-A Reno. Those two make nice speculation picks on FAAB if your league rules allow.

Mike Morse has been called up by the Washington Nationals. He doesn't have a clear position but he can seriously hit when given the chance. If he's still available snatch himup on the cheap.