Fixing Drew Stubbs

When Paul O’Neil was still with the Cincinnati Reds he was not yet the player who led the New York Yankees during their 90’s Dynasty Years. Instead he was pressured by then manager Lou Piniella to pull the ball as often as possible in hopes that he would hit more homeruns. The results were mediocre. When the Yankees traded Roberto Kelly (my favorite player at the time) for O’Neil, I was quite mad about it. I would have bet anything at Sportsbetting.ag that the Yankees had just set back their re-building project by several years. I soon learned that Paul O’Neil was a much better player than I realized. The Yankees freed O’Neil to return to an all fields approach. Now Paul O’Neil is a treasured Yankee and is remembered as a great player.

I do not mean to suggest that Drew Stubbs will magically transform into the modern day Paul O’Neil (Ryan Braun?) now that he is in Cleveland. However, I do think he is a better player than the one the Reds basically threw away. The Reds tossed the Indians a player that was nearly without value at the plate in 2012. Stubbs batted just .213/.277/.333 last season. He walked less and struck out more. He hit more groundballs and infield flies and his lowest line drive rate ever. It was the worst season of a young player’s career.

Stubbs has a long swing that causes him to struggle to hit breaking pitches but especially the curveball and the changeup.  He swings at fewer pitches out of the zone than most players but he also makes worse contact when he does. He also swings at fewer pitches than most players both in and out of the zone and makes worse contact. 

Stubbs was drafted in 2006 out of the University of Texas. He was drafted just after players like Evan Longoria and Clayton Kershaw and before Tim Lincecum. According to Baseball America he was considered the best athlete, best defensive player, second-fastest base runner, and third-best power hitter among collegians. With a little tweaking and some hard work the Reds might have made Stubbs a better player before graduating him to the majors. Apparently the Reds were happy with Stubbs as he was and rushed him through the system in just over two seasons. He was placed into the hands of a manager who seemed to have little patience with young players. 

Since his call-up, Stubbs has displayed an excellent glove in center field, homerun power and a bunch of stolen bases. He has never hit for average in the majors (and did not do it much in the minors either) but his decent walk rates made his on-base percentage acceptable when combined with his other skills. Fantasy owners had no problem with his .250-.260 batting average because usually it came with around 15 homers and 30 stolen bases. But just like the Reds, fantasy owners abandoned him in droves when his average fell to .213 during the 2012 season.

As a player with both power and speed Stubbs can be expected to have a slightly higher than average BABIP and his career .323 BABIP fits. In 2012 his BABIP was just .290 which may be around average for most players but not for Stubbs. If nothing changes but his BABIP returns to the .330 level, Stubbs should have stats that resemble his 2010 and 2011 seasons. Hopefully is walk rate will rise back to its former level. His linedrives return and and he reduces those infield fly balls. The Indians would probably be happy with that. But if the Indians actually put some time in with Stubbs and worked on shortening his swing and improving his approach at the plate he could be even more than he was with the Reds. He could be the Cleveland version of Paul O’Neil.

Matt LaPorta VS Michael Brantley

Photo from fOTOGLIF

If he had managed to stay healthy Matt LaPorta would probably be entrenched either in left field or at first base. In fact until the Indians signed Russell Branyan, LaPorta was the consensus starter at first base and Michael Brantley looked like a near lock to man left field for the tribe. Most writers are now speculating that Brantley and LaPorta are now competing for just one spot on the major league roster, with the most likely scenario being LaPorta in left field and Brantley in triple-A. I am not as positive that is the case, though I have no inside information. But applying some logic this is what I'm thinking:

1. Both Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta seem to be in Cleveland's long term plans. So delaying either player from establishing himself in the majors seems counter-productive.

2. Russell Branyan has some injury concerns which may limit his playing time. Enough concerns that Brantley or LaPorta could potentially receive enough at-bats to justify a spot on the major league roster ahead of Trevor Crowe or Austin Kearns.

3. Based on the most recent results and scouting reports, the trio of Brantley, LaPorta, and Branyan is bound to be more productive than Kearns, Crowe and just one of the younger players.

4. LaPorta is coming off hip and toe surgeries and there exists the possibility that Brantley will outplay him this spring. In that case, would not the Indians send LaPorta to the minors instead of Brantley?

I was somewhat surprised to learn that (at least in the majors in admittedly small sample sizes) Matt LaPorta was the better defensive player. Brantley had a UZR/150 of 5.8 in left field, and -49.3 in center field. LaPorta had a 8.9 UZR/150 at first base, and -8.7 in left field but 15.4 in right field. It probably isn't much of a consideration for the Indians at this point but I think its interesting at least.

Matt LaPorta appears to have solid but unspectacular power. He combines what I would call 20-30 homerun power with solid but again unspectacular plate discipline. I would place his ceiling as a player somewhere around Nick Markakis and his floor at Matt Diaz. From that you can infer that I believe he is a solid major league player, the question is only how good can he be.

From Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta speaking of Matt LaPorta:

"He's going to get 500 at-bats, if he's healthy," manager Manny Acta said. "That's what's important here."

Michael Brantley has had solid walk rates and good contact numbers throughout his minor league career. He does not hit for power but has very good speed on the bases and is capable of stealing 30-40 bases in a season. Cleveland doesn't appear to be very high on him but he deserves more respect. Especially when the alternative is Austin Kearns.

News, Links and Observations

The Cleveland Indians have fired manager Eric Wedge and the entire coaching staff. Why they bothered to do this with less than a week remaining in the season will probably remain a mystery.

The Indians are in the early stages of what general manager Mark Shapiro referred to as a "reloading" period, and the reload will extend to the managerial position and the coaching staff.

A 1:30 p.m. ET press conference was scheduled Wednesday at Progressive Field to announce that Wedge and his coaches have all been relieved of their duties. Wedge and his staff will stay aboard for the season's final six games, including the four-game set in Boston this weekend.

According to a team source, Wedge has known his fate for several days, while the coaches -- including pitching coach Carl Willis, hitting coach Derek Shelton, bench coach Jeff Datz, first-base coach Luis Rivera, third-base coach Joel Skinner and bullpen coach Chuck Hernandez -- were informed of the moves following Tuesday's rainout against the White Sox.

Taking over for Peter Abraham, the number one Yankees blogger at The LoHud Yankees Blog, will be Chad Jennings of the Times-Tribune in Scranton and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees Blog. I loved Peter's work and as a huge Yankees fan (I'll be sharing news on my own new Yankees Blog very soon). I follow a few blogs for each MLB team, and I'll certainly be adding his new Red Sox blog to my list. The Boston Globe sports section just became relevant again.

Here's a small sample:

Chad covered the Triple-A Yankees with distinction and his blog was a must-read for Yankee fans who wanted to be up to date on the organization’s prospects. Chad has a knack for blogging and is a fine writer and reporter.

As somebody who once covered the Double-A Yankees, I believe there is a lot of value in having a reporter who started in the minors and worked his way up. Chad is a young guy with a lot of ambition and knowledge of baseball and he’s the perfect choice to take over this blog.

Over at Athletics Nation they are discussing the 2010 roster and which players should be o n it. Every aspiring or returning fantasy league champ can use articles like this to get a little closer to the thinking of the front office and the most loyal fans.

Here's a small sample:

As much as I love Rajai Davis, never has the phrase "sell high" been more apropos. Unless we really believe he can hit .360 for half a season ever again in his career, it might be worth entertaining some offers. If not, we have a very fast leadoff or number two hitter for next season. The A's will also have to make a decision on Adam Kennedy (and third base), and it's possible they aren't fully committed to Jack Cust and/or Scott Hairston as full-time players next season. Have the A's found the shortstop answer in Cliff Pennington (and we're assuming that 30 year old Free Agent Bobby Crosby will finally leave Oakland) or are they still searching for something they haven't had since Miguel Tejada (coincidentally, who is a FA of his own this year)?

Lou Piniella described what he expects his 2010 pitching staff to look like and he gets very specific about it in this Chicago Tribune article. The article focuses on the Cubs apparently allowing Rich Harden to depart via free agency. I found the the quote about Jeff Samardzija to be pretty interesting...

Here's a small sample:

"You look at our starting pitching here for next year," Piniella said. "You've got (Carlos) Zambrano, you've got (Ryan) Dempster, you've got (Randy) Wells, you've got (Ted) Lilly, you've got (Tom) Gorzelanny, and you've got (Jeff) Samardzija, who is going to go to winter ball. And if this kid keeps improving, he'll be right in the mix. So we've got six nice arms."

Mike Pelfrey's season has mercifully come to an end and Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog, examines his season and what went wrong. I still think Pelfrey has some good years coming. I'm just not certain what I'd bet to have him on my teams...

Here's a small sample:

…that said, he was pitching in front of a terrible, ever-changing, often-out-of-place defense… also, he seemed to get more ground balls than in previous seasons, and that is important for him to be effective… the problem was his walks, and putting himself in a position to fail, which is something no pitcher should do with that sort of defense behind him…

Tommy Rancel of D'Rays Bay is predicting that Matt Joyce will take over right field for the Rays in 2010. He also sees Gabe Gross as a potential non-tender. I actually thought the Rays were going to give Joyce that shot this season mostly based on Joyce's solid rookie season with the Detroit Tigers. Joyce was traded for Edwin Jackson, a move that at this point heavily favors the Tigers but that could be changing in 2010.

Sports: A Game of Inches has a nice piece on Jonny Gomes and his improvements this season. Those of you who have read my stuff for a while know I've been on that bandwagon. I called him potentially the next David Ortiz. This article breaks down his tools and skills very well and will give you a true sense of his value and upside.

Here's a small sample:

But let's not be too hard on Gomes here. A marginally better than league average walk rate is nothing to sneer at when paired with legitimate power (.230 career ISO) and defense skills that are only half as crappy as his predecessor. In fact, in less than half as many PA's as Adam Dunn this season, Jonny Gomes has been, when you combine and compare offensive and defensive production, exactly half as valuable as Adam Dunn this season. Extrapolated, that insinuates that two have the same production rate per game for their respective teams. Such is true for 2009, but is this a legitimate expectation for 2010 and going forward?

If you enjoy the MLB offseason as much as I do, you should like this piece by BUCCOfans.com. They examine the needs of the Pittsburgh Pirates and a few of their potential targets come the free-agency period. According to their calculations the Pirates have nearly $20 million to spend. I'm sure a good portion of that will go to raises and arbitration but they should be able to add a quality bat and do some bargain hunting for bullpen arms.

Here's a small sample:

The first thing anyone should say is "we've heard this before". Many will point to last year when Neal Huntington said "we're going after a right handed power bat, a starting pitcher, and a bullpen arm". He came away with Eric Hinske, Virgil Vasquez, and Chris Bootcheck, although it should be noted that Daniel Cabrera, Rocco Baldelli, and Derrick Turnbow all turned down more money to play elsewhere (although that's not really a bad thing for the Pirates).

The Red Sox desperately need to re-sign Jason Bay. Bay is their primary power source and a key element in the middle of their lineup. Unfortunately for Boston fans, the Red Sox underestimated what it would take to re-sign him and will now most likely have to compete with other teams for his services. The New York Yankees could be lurking, ready to steal another Red Sox target from under their noses. The Bottom Line (a quality Red Sox blog) examines this situation.

Here's a small sample:

My point is this... Teixeira got away and now he's a major part of why the Yankees are the World Series favorites. If they win it all this season, many will say that they "bought" another ring with the huge contracts they dished out this offseason, but the Red Sox can't afford to let another potential "anchor" sign with someone else.

The Return of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto

If you noticed more smiles than usual around the water cooler today it may be that you are looking at the fantasy owners of Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto. It does not matter what format you were playing in or how good your team has done in the meanwhile. Getting one (or even both) of these guys back in action is like pulling off a major trade in which you gave up absolutely nothing. It feels almost as good as it hurt when you lost them in the first place.

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore is avoiding rehab in the minor leagues for the elbow injury that has bothered him since spring training. The Cleveland Indians have been calling the injury an inflamed elbow. The Indians also caution that any further set backs will likely result in season-ending elbow surgery. Sizemore is insisting that his elbow feels good and that he did not feel any pain when he tested the elbow over the weekend. We can only hope that he is telling the truth and that the tests were strenuous enough to be conclusive.

Playing through the pain did not do anything good for Sizemore's early season numbers. When he hit the disabled list he was batting .223/.309/.417 with nine homers and seven stolen bases (of 13 attempts) in 206 at-bats. It is very difficult to measure how much the injury played into his start. His walk rate was down, his strikeout rate was up but other than that everything (excluding the SB-rate) seemed to be typical of Sizemore.

There is no avoiding the fact that Sizemore is a risk for fantasy teams. A sore elbow has the potential to alter his swing and significantly change his results. It could also make him more cautious on the base paths. All that said if I had the opportunity to add Sizemore to one of my rosters I would do it without hesitation. The risk is extremely high but so is the reward. Don't part with your best cogs to add him but if you can manage it without them, I would endorse the move in leagues of every format.

Joey Votto

Unlike Sizemore, Votto has been rehabbing in the minor leagues and looks on his game. What exactly was ailing Votto has been kept under wraps by Votto and the Cincinnati Reds. We know that he had an inner-ear infection which was complicated by continuing to fly with the condition. He was forced to leave a few games with dizziness. But then he was placed on the disabled list with what the Reds called a stress-related problem. This could be almost anything from stress over the vertigo to a more serious problem they probably exacerbated by not sidelining him when the problem first occurred. Apparently the secrecy over his condition is at the request of Votto himself.

From the National Post:

"Have faith in me as a person that I would make the right decisions for myself and the ball club. I would never sell the team or the city of Cincinnati short,'' he said. "I think I give every single Cincinnati Reds fan exactly what they pay for. I feel like at times, I give more, because [baseball] engrosses my life. It takes a lot of my time emotionally and physically --off the field, too.'

Votto was on fire to start the season and was blasting homeruns even while suffering from the ear infection complications. He went on the disabled list with a slash line of .357/.464/.627 with eight homeruns and two stolen bases in just 126 at-bats. It appears to me that this was totally inline with Votto's development into a great baseball player.

I think the risk with Votto is minimal. He looks and sounds healthy and in a positive state of mind according to local reports. Which is extremely significant if stress alone truly did lead to his DL stint.

From the National Post:

"I was just joking around with people," said Votto as he smiled through a post-game interview on Sunday. "I was in such a good mood today because it's been such a struggle getting through games that I couldn't help but have a smile on my face."

I believe that Joey Votto will go directly back to proving himself one of the best players in the National League. He should hit for a great batting average and very nice power. His owners should not hesitate to activate him. If for some reason he is available in your league grabbing him should be your number one priority.

Moving Up: Matt LaPorta

With Travis Hafner on the disabled list the Cleveland Indians have called up top outfield prospect Matt LaPorta. LaPorta of course was the key reward when the Indians dealt CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers. He should be picked up in all but the shallowest of leagues. He begins by platooning with David Dellucci but if he continues to hit the way he was at triple-A that won't last long.

LaPorta has amazing power and should eventually hit for a good average. He has good contact skills but still needs to develop more patience and discipline at the plate. In a full season of at-bats he could easily hit 30 homeruns and is likely to approach forty once he adjusts to the major leagues. This season I would expect something in the 260-270 range with 25-plus homers if he stays in the majors the rest of the season. He is likely to be streaky as pitchers adjust and he adjusts back to them. But those hot streaks will be what fantasy owners live for -- like the older players in your league when they talk about Darryl Strawberry's epic streaks.

IMPORTANT: Do not sleep on Luis Valbuena who was also called up. He could very well be starting before the end of the week. He has pop and speed and qualifies at second base.

Season	Team	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2007	Brewers (R)	7	27	7	1	0	2	4	4	1	8	0	0	0.259
2007	Brewers (A)	23	88	28	8	0	10	18	27	7	22	0	1	0.318
2008	Indians (AA)	17	60	14	1	0	2	6	8	4	12	0	0	0.233
2008	Brewers (AA)	84	302	87	23	2	20	56	66	45	63	2	1	0.288
2009	Indians (AAA)	21	75	25	4	2	5	22	14	9	10	0	0	0.333

LaPorta called up and ready to play

Matt LaPorta and Luis Valbuena Ready for Impact

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

More Hot Stove Free-Agent Signings

The Yankees have reached an agreement with RHP A.J. Burnett and the Indians have all but signed closer Kerry Wood. You can read my complete analysis of those pitchers on the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog.

The New York Yankees Sign A.J. Burnett
As a New York Yankees fan I'm not all that enamored of the much rumored plan the Yankees have to sign three free agent starters.The plan forces Phil Hughes and to a lesser extent Ian Kennedy out of the rotation to begin the 2009 season. This seems like the wrong move to me. Signing CC Sabathia was a necessity for the Yankees. They needed that intimidating starter to place at the head of their rotation. I can even understand the second free agent pitcher so that the young guys are not just given a job and will instead have to fight for it. But to sign a third and probably older starter and seemingly give up on the youth movement is just not good team building.
The Tribe Inches Closer to Closer Kerry Wood
Kerry Wood took a physical for the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Assuming that Wood passed he would soon sign a contract with the Indians expected to be for two years and $20 million. Wood stayed relatively healthy last season as the Cubs closer and was also very effective in the role. He converted 34 of 40 save opportunities while providing the Cubs with 66 and 1/3 innings. He struck out out 84 and walked just 18 batters. He is moving to the tougher league but this generally has a greater effect on starters than relievers.