Wishing Mark McGwire Luck

I just wanted to wish Mark McGwire good luck in his new position as the hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals. I have read much praise from the players that he has worked with individually. I think he will do very well in this position and the Cardinals will benefit from what he has to offer. I used to love the A's back in the days of the Bash Brothers, with Ricky Henderson and Dave Stewart. They were incredibly fun to watch play. In those days the A's were one of the best teams in the game and had league-leading payrolls. McGwire was the true star of that bunch, when he was healthy anyway. You should watch the video attached to this article about Tony LaRussa returning to the Cardinals to hear LaRussa discuss McGwire's transformation as a hitter.

Below this great photo I discuss the reaction to McGwire's return by the dumber members of the mainstream media and their parroting groupies.


There is no proof that Mark McGwire ever used any illegal drugs before, during or after his baseball career ended. We know that he used Andro, because he never hid it. My old roommate was using it too before most of us even knew what it was. Most of the people commenting about this still do not know what Andro was. And it is because he did not hide it that much of this PED controversy exists today around the game of baseball. Androstendione was not illegal or even considered an anabolic steroid at the time McGwire was using it. You could have bought some yourself from many different legal sources. It was reclassified in 2004 when the Anabolic Steroid Control Act of 2004 was introduced into the United States Senate.***

***If people in this country were assigned jobs based on their intelligence and focus on what actually matters most of the Senators speaking out in what I call the Steroid Trials (and their media lackeys) would find themselves working for Burger King.

I have read many different articles in the last week or so and hundreds of comments by the readers of those articles that make claims that are just not true or fair. Today I read an article that basically claimed that McGwire was responsible for the suicide of two kids who used steroids. No. No he is not. If a kid is using steroids that responsibility lies with the kid himself, his parents and the people of responsibility around him. I have read the McGwire ruined baseball despite the fact that when he was hitting all those homeruns for the St. Louis Cardinals he was being labeled the savior of baseball. I have read that Mark McGwire now hides from the public scrutiny he deserves because he is so ashamed of his steroid use, and his lies. First, what lies? Can someone please show me when McGwire was proved a liar about anything to do with baseball or him using any form of PED? Second, when has Mark McGwire ever sought out media attention? Remember how when McGwire was hitting all those homeruns and everyone loved him and was anxious to hear his every waking thought, that he avoided the media like the plague. Seems like the kind of guy who avoids public speaking whenever possible.

You do not have to like Mark McGwire. I am certain he has habits that may annoy people. Maybe he clips his nails at the kitchen table or he leaves hair on the bar of soap in the shower. But I think it is wrong to punish the man over something that probably had little impact (if any at all, if he even did anything wrong which is not so certain as it is usually made out to be) on his career as a whole and most certainly did not hurt anybody or cause anybody to hurt themselves.

Merry Christmas Yankees Fans!

Posted to the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog:

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...and to Yankees fans it looks like Christmas, New Years, birthdays and Mothers Day all wrapped together with a bright red bow.

The New York Yankees just committed $180 million over eight years to first baseman Mark Teixeira. Teixeira was negotiating with several teams including the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox until late last week when both teams dropped out of the bidding. The Yankees didn't even make an offer until Tuesday morning but it was quickly accepted. I'm guessing that LA and Bostn were trying to get a recession discount because this is pretty close to the asking price all along.

Teixeira is a fantastic hitter with plate discipline, patience and power. He should be an excellent fit in New York's lineup. He should have no problem scoring runs in front of Alex rodriguez and driving them in behind Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon. Teixeira is a solid early round pick in mixed leagues and a top selection in deeper AL-only leagues.

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

If I preach about anything on this blog one of them is putting things into the proper context. David Golebiewski at Fangraph.com has posted a terrific series of articles that examine how the defense of the Texas Rangers and the improvement of Edwin Jackson, and also the new and improving defense of the Seattle Mariners fit into fantasy baseball context. This is great stuff that you should read.

Rangeless Rangers Compound Pitching Problems

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

This is especially significant with all of the young and extremely talented pitching about to come out of the texas Rangers minor league system. It also helps to explain why so many pitchers fail in Texas only to make dramatic improvements elsewhere. The Park Factors and Bad Defense combine tocreate a worst-case scenario for pitchers in Texas.

Trade Fallout: Jackson Jumps to Motown
In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ‘07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ‘08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ‘08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

This makes the Tigers acquisition of Jackson even more interesting. The Tigers have improved their defense this offseason but is it enough to allow Jackson to stay at the level he reached last year? If it is and Jackson can increase his strikeout rate and maintain or even improve his BB/9 from last season we could be looking at a real breakout.

Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D
As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

An improved defense as well as an improved offense means good things are in store for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. I'm especially intrigued with the improvement that is possible for Felix Hernandez.
Read All of The Above Articles - what I've sampled for you is just that.

Raul Ibanez Signs with the Philadelphia Phillies

Raul Ibanez has agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies believed to be worth $30 million for three years. Ibanez replaces former left fielder Pat Burrell who is presently a free agent.

This seems a bit odd for the Phillies. Ibanez is older (37-years old), just as bad defensively, and left-handed which tilts the Phillies lineup dramatically to that side. Ibanez is also a not as skilled at getting on base as Burrell. Ibanez does make better contact and thus usually hits for a better batting average but that has more value for us a fantasy players than it does for the Phillies.

Ibanez moves to a better park for hitters. Citizens Bank Park was rated at 1.029 runs and Safeco at 0.932. Ibanez is a good contact hitter with good power. He hits more groundballs than you would like to see from your power hitters. He should put up better counting stats in a far stronger Phillies lineup. All of this makes Ibanez a good fantasy baseball addition for the 2009 season.

Emily's Fantasy Baseball Survey

There is a very popular fantasy baseball survey making its way around the internet. It was created by a NorthWestern student named Emily. She is doing research on fantasy baseball and the people who play it. Please take5-10 minutes to complete this survey and further the scholarly reach of our hobby.

Hello Fellow Fantasy Baseball Fans,

My name is Emily Stecher and I am a senior at Northwestern University writing my senior thesis on fantasy baseball. I am a fantasy baseball participant myself and an avid baseball fan. The literature on fantasy baseball is not terribly extensive so I am trying to conduct a survey to further my research. This survey takes 5 minutes and I would really appreciate all the help I can get. Plus, everyone who participates will be entered in a raffle to win a $50 VISA gift card.

Here is the link to the survey. Please take it!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=68fvy_2bS28ez0el35eRWFHQ_3d_3d

Thanks so much!,
Emily

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.

Favorite Statistical Sources

Everyday there is another great site pops up that presents the baseball team and player statistics. The sites linked below are my favorites. They are not only great, they are free, so please support them in whatever fashion possible.

TheBaseballCube.com
When I want to get a quick sense of a player thebaseballcube.com is the first place I go. Not only do I get the basic stats that count for fantasy but key bits of information such as birthdate, age at each level, college stats, honors and awards that have been granted the player and a bunch more.

FanGraphs.com
When I need to understand where a player is going statistically or when I want to know why they rose or fell, this is the site I check. Fangraphs has tons of great stats that you rarely find on other sites - wOBA, IFFB percentage, HR/FB, IFH%, WPA and tons more. Plus, this site has a great blog that Dave Cameron --one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet -- contributes to frequently.

HardBallTimes.com
Sometimes I just need someone else to do the heavy lifting for a whilw and that means a trip to hardballtimes.com is in my future. Everything is here -- the news, the stats, the analysis, the fantasy spins, and the great reads. These guys also produce one of the very best baseball annuals in the business. Their annual has everything that the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Baseball Forecaster are always missing.

FirstInning.com
When I need to study a prospect there is only one source for advanced stats (that won't cost you an arm and a first born) and that is FirstInning.com. All of the stats you want when you're studying up on major leaguers are here for minor leaguers. Plus - prospect lists, charts, graphs, park factors, league factors -- everything you need to seriously examine prospects is here.

FSIC American League Draft Order

Advanced Fantasy Baseball will be drafting from the eighth spot in the American League Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge. Here is the whole draft order with the other competitors listed.

1	Fantasy Baseball Dugout
2	The Fantasy Man
3	Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
4	Rotohelp
5	Sporting News
6	ProFantasy Baseball
7	Roto Central
8	Advanced Fantasy Baseball
9	Fantasy Sports R Us
10	BBall Deluxe
11	Open Team
12	Fanball

I'm glad to see that there are some great sites competing. We all know how boring it get when the competition is not up to the challenge.