2013 Closer Update: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

Closer – Aroldis Chapman

Next – Jonathan Broxton

Sleeper – Sean Marshall

Super-Sleeper – Jose Arredondo

With manager Dusty Baker expressing his support for Aroldis Chapman as a closer and Chapman announcing that he grew to enjoy the closer role and would like to return to it, it was easy to see this coming. Chapman should immediately rise to the top of your closer rankings. He should be second only to Craig Kimbrel.Owners can expect an elite strikeout rate and excellent ratios. Click here to read more about the Cincinnati Reds decision.

It would appear that Jonathan Broxton has recovered from years of abuse at the hands of Joe Torre. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity will probably never be what they were again but Broxton has learned to be effective with what he has which is a still a nice low to mid 90s fastball. As long as his control is there he should be an effective set-up man and emergency closer. Only the return of Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen is forcing Broxton from the closer role.

The Expert League Challenge

I have had the privilege of participating in several fantasy baseball and football expert leagues. I have done well in a few of them but unfortunately have yet to actually win one. I plan to change that this season. Whether you participate in Fantasy Baseball or another type of sports betting the goal is always to win. Sometimes you want to win for recognition (as in Expert leagues) and other times you want to bring home the fantasy league pot. In either case the method is pretty much the same – develop a winning strategy and implement it to the best of your ability. 

On Sunday I drafted in two Fantasy Sports Invitational Challenge Expert Leagues run by Fantasy Sports R Us. One league was an NL-only with 11 teams and the other a nine team AL-only.  My Strategy in both leagues was fairly simple. Draft at least 200 homeruns, 120 stolen bases, two closers and strikeout starters. You can judge the execution of that strategy for yourself. I was more happy with the AL team than the NL team. I was not nearly as obsessed with the Reds and Yankees as the rosters may make it appear. I failed to acquire the quality of pitching I was hoping for but think I have a solid core in both leagues.

The NL-Only Team

C Rob Brantley, Miami Marlins – showed new on-base skills after joining the Marlins

1B Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers – hopefully over his shoulder problems

3B Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds – a talented player in a great lineup

CI Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals – an underrated power source

2B Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds – a top second basemen

SS Alex Gonzalez, Milwaukee Brewers – should see time all over the field and serve as Segura insurance

MI Steve Lombardozzi, Washington Nationals – betting on Espinosa’s shoulder problems

OF Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves – my bet to be a 2014 first round pick

OF Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals – his endurance should be better this season

OF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates – a youngster with power and speed

OF Carlos Quentin, San Diego Padres – a powerful hitter who is presently healthy

OF Tony Campana, Arizona Diamondbacks – just for the stolen bases

Utl Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres – my rookie of the year pick

SP Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds – I think he’s an ace starter

SP Trevor Cahill, Arizona Diamondbacks – trending very well, improved skills

SP Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs – an underrated starting pitcher

SP Ross Detwiler, Washington Nationals – him too

SP Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies – put it together in the second half of the 2012 season

MR Heath Bell, Arizona Diamondbacks – betting he finds his way to saves somehow

MR Brandon Lyon, New York Mets – next in line for saves in New York

CL Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals – A top five closer

CL Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies – a top skilled closer

R Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds – If he comes up early he’ll save my horrid middle infield

R Jerry Hairston, 2B, 3B, OF Los Angeles Dodgers – love having reserves that play all over

R Erik Kratz, C, Philadelphia Phillies – should be very productive while Ruiz sits

R Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates – an ace as soon as he gets the call

R Cory Luebke, SP, San Diego Padres – help down the stretch

The AL-Only Team

C Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox – should see more at-bats in a park built for him

1B Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays – he may not repeat but 30 homers is a cinch

3B Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics – a sleeper pick after getting caught looking elsewhere

CI Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees – the power is not going anywhere

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees – worthy of the number one pick in any league

SS Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians – a top shortstop

MI Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers – a quality late round middle infielder

OF Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox – big power potential

OF Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians – a solid player in a very improved lineup

OF Coco Crisp, Oakland Athletics – the stolen base master of the present

OF Leonys Martin, Texas Rangers – a better hitter than most understand

OF Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels – if he hits he should also steal bases

Utl Darin Mastroianni, Minnesota Twins – knows how to get on base and the speed skills for 70 SBs

SP Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers – better than he looked last season

SP Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox – flashed his former stuff last season, finally healthy

SP Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays – a solid pitcher on a great team

SP Vance Worley, Minnesota Twins – a pitcher I like more than you

SP Dan Straily, Oakland Athletics – a minor league strikeout leader with a rotation spot

SP Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners – the park should make him look better than his skills

SP Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals – one of my bets to step up big time in 2013

MR Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics – my favorite relief sleeper

CL Brant Balfour, Oakland Athletics – the only closer left on the board

R Ryan Flaherty, 2B, 3B, OF, Baltimore Orioles – versatile and behind a brittle starter

R Matt Dominguez, 3B, Houston Astros – improved his bat skills last season, starting 3B

R Mike Aviles, Cleveland Indians – versatile reserve on a team with many potential holes

R Eduardo Nunez, New York Yankees – a young and versatile player on an aging team

R Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), SP Tampa Bay Rays – the Rays are miracle workers

Mr. Yunesky Maya Goes to Washington

After his work visa is worked out the Washington Nationals will officially sign Cuban right-hander Yunesky Maya. This is a huge step for the Nationals as an organization. You can see some of the advance work they did to get this done with both Livan Hernandez and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez in the organization. Maya should be made to feel comfortable right away.

If you are wondering why Maya seems familiar it is because you've seen him in both World Baseball Classics pitching for the Cuban entry. He was one of the best pitchers in Cuba before defecting last September. He was the ace of the Cuban rotation that included Aroldis Chapman. he won the Cuban equivalent of the Cy Young in the 2008-09 season. Most scouts believe he can pitch for the Nationals almost as soon as he arrives.

Fantasy owners should be very aware of Maya. He may even impact the pennant races in some leagues, especially NL-only leagues. He'll report to Florida for extended Spring Training but should move through the system quickly.




EDIT: To add quotes from the August 1st Press Conference (h/t FederalBaseball.com)

"The actual negotiations went fairly quickly once were able to negotiate," DC GM Mike Rizzo explained when asked how long the team had been talking to Maya, "There's a strict policy and the red tape of getting him the documentation he needs to come to the states....we went after him quickly and aggressively as a person we thought could give us instant impact at the major league level for the long term and that's the reason we decided to sign him to a major league contract." (ed. note - "According to Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore, the contract is worth $6M over 4 years.")

The Nationals had a "very thorough evaluatory process" of the pitcher, Mr. Rizzo continued, "He was seen I think by five separate scouts on separate occasions, during international competition over the years, most recently during the World Baseball Classic and we had multiple reports on him and we scouted him very in-depth in the Dominican Republic once we got over there."

"How soon will Maya be in the Majors?" Mr. Rizzo said that, "Yunesky's going to be around [in D.C.] for a couple days to see the ballgame(s), then he's going to immediately fly to Viera [FL] to throw in front of our Pitching Coordinator Spin Williams. We're going to assess where he's at in his conditioning and how stretched out he is as far as a number of pitches he can [throw], then...he'll throw a live bullpen, a simulated game, do a rehab start, then we'll reassess at that point where he goes, if he comes directly to the big leagues or to the minor leagues for a little bit of more seasoning and to build his pitch count up."

Post All-Star Break Prospects to Watch

I have been asked by a couple of readers for lists of prospects to look for in the second half of the season. Apparently you guys want to know both the prospects that should be up soon and the prospects that will be making cameos before making their impacts next season. I am nothing if not obliging.

Impact Call-Ups to Expect

(in no particular order)

Dominic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies - At two levels, he has already surpassed his high home run total. He doesn't have the discipline of Jason Heyward or the power of Michael Stanton but he is in their class as a prospect. Brown has often been compared to Daryl Strawberry and that is a very good comparison. He has 30-plus homerun power and he has the speed (if not the skills) to steal 20 to 30 bases annually. He has solid plate discipline (for a 22-year old and should draw enough walks to provide strong on-base percentages. He does strikeout a bit but more in the power hitter range than the outrageous (Mark Reynolds) range. Brown is waiting for something to happen in the Phillies outfield, whether that is Jayson Werth* being traded or Raul Ibanez being benched has yet to be determined.

*For some reason I keep reading that Jayson Werth is having a bad season. That is simply not the case. The only real difference (at least in a negative sense) between 2010 and 2009 is the homerun pace. Otherwise he is batting for a better average, getting on base and slugging just as much. His teammates are collectively having an off year due to injuries and slow starts and slumps and that has slowed his Runs and RBI pace. But Werth was a .382 wOBA player in 2009 and is at .376 so far in 2010. He may not be having the perfect fantasy season but his real baseball season is just fine.

Brett Wallace, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays - One of my favorite hitting prospects, Wallace is showing improved homerun power. He is a disciplined hitter, although his patience seems to have slipped just a bit. He should eventually hit for high averages, with very nice OBAs, good power (say 20-30 homers annually), and provide zero speed. Lyle Overbay is still in the way at first base. Overbay's sub-par season has not helped the Blue Jays in their attempts to move him. The Jays are also trying to move Jose Bautista (selling high, just as you would) which would also open a spot, though Travis Snider may get the first opening.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays - Hellickson has everything you want to see in a pitching prospect. He wins. He induces strikeouts. A large chunk of the flyballs he allows are of the harmless infield variety. When you subtract the infield flies from the other variety he induces more groundballs than fly outs. He has excellent command (3.55 K/BB) and is just 23-years old pitching in the International League. He should already be in the majors.

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins - He induces groundballs on almost 60 percent of the balls put into play. He induces strikeouts at nice rate and his improving changeup promises that that rate can improve even further. With the Twins appearing reluctant to part with their better prospects in a trade for pitching, Gibson looks like a nice option down the stretch.

Jerry Sands, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - Right now, no one is talking about Jerry Sands, but all he does is hit. He hits for average (batting .319/.422/.636 at two levels) and he hits for power (27 homers in 332 at-bats). He draws walks and makes pretty good contact for a slugger. This 25th-round pick from the 2008 draft looks unstoppable right now. The Dodgers could certainly use an unstoppable slugger in their lineup. Who couldn't?

Thomas Diamond, RHP, Chicago Cubs - He was left for dead by the Rangers. Okay, they sacrificed his place on the roster for a fresher crop of prospects. This is all to the Cubs benefit. He looks exactly like the talented rotation starter he was expected to become a few years ago. He is still just 27-years old. The Cubs have absolutely nothing to lose by promoting him into the major league rotation.

Brock Bond, 2B, San Francisco Giants - Bond is not the type of player that usually gets put on fantasy-oriented prospect lists. But his .417 OBP in 4 seasons is exactly the style of player the Giants need at the top of their lineup. If they make the move watch him get on base and score runs like crazy.

Cameo Appearance Only
(the real impact will come in 2011)

Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle Mariners - He pitches in the high 90's. He has three plus or better pitches and he has the ideal power pitcher's body. He will also graduate into the best pitchers park in the American League. The hype is growing. He induces strikeouts, groundballs and infield flies. He has excellent command and is going to challenge Felix Hernandez for his throne atop the Mariners rotation.

Blake Beavan, RHP, Seattle Mariners - He has become more of a pitcher and less of a hard thrower since being drafted by the Rangers. He was one of the prospects sent to the Mariners in the recent Cliff Lee trade. He does not strike out batters at the rate we fantasy owners like to see but he can still toss it past a batter when he needs to. He survives with incredible command and by inducing a ton of groundballs and infield flies. He should look spectacular behind King Felix and Prince Pineda some day.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays - A spring wrist injury and slow start probably conspired to keep Jennings from contending for American League rookie of the year in 2010. He has the tools and is developing the skills to be the perfect replacement (or complement) to Carl Crawford. If I ran the Rays, I'd toss B.J. Upton out on his butt and let Crawford, Jennings, and Ben Zobrist man the outfield for the next ten years.

Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles - I have expressed my great man-love for Zach Britton many times. He has a 65.8 percent GB rate this season and that isn't even a shocking number for him. He strikes out batters at a decent rate (enough to know he can deceive batters). Baseball America has pushed him into their mid-season Top Ten Prospects. The 2011 rookie of the year, you heard it here first.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals - Many fantasy analysts were jumping off the Moustakas band wagon after a couple of not bad but disappointing seasons. He has roared back into their hearts. He was contending for the Texas League Triple Crown and has already pushed former phenom Alex Gordon out of the Royals infield. The Royals are getting it together.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds - The Cuban lefty is impressive but has not developed as quickly as some expected. He has the raw stuff to blow it past any batter but lacks the finesse and command necessary to dominate in the long term. I think it was a mistake to start him at Triple-A. I think a quick journey from the lower minors as the Nats did with Stephen Strasburg would have been the better move. It would have built his confidence and given him a chance at Strasburg-like hype. The Reds have moved him to the bullpen (it seems like a short term move but that's hard to say) to speed his advancement and for possible help in a late season playoff run. Don't let the cooling of the hype turn you off, he's still going to be very good.

Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics - Carter hasn't hit for average this season but his power is top shelf. However, thanks to a nice hot streak he has dragged his slash to .241/.350/.504 with 23 homers in 365 at-bats. Most prospect junkies thought Carter would be up by now, but apparently the Athletics want to see improvement in his plate discipline first.

You Will Not See Them in 2010 But DAMN!
(Damn = Drooling Already so Make Note)

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels - He has all the tools, and is developing the skills to become one of the great ones. He has a .353/.445/.519 slash with 45 steals (just 11 cs) and developing power. Grab him now while you still have a prayer of getting him on the cheap.

Aaron Hicks, OF,Minnesota Twins - The tools are way ahead of the skills at this point. But this potential Torii Hunter clone is going to put it together very soon.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals - The Royals system is getting stronger and stronger. Hosmer has more power than his numbers may suggest and he even steals a few bases to go with his awesome batting average. Dayton Moore is doing something right at least.

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians - When you watch him swing you get the sense that he could be the next Chipper Jones but the numbers aren't there yet. He is an excellent player to stash in deeper farm systems.

Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle Mariners - He has 18 homers and 18 stolen bases in 332 at-bats. Franklin has probably surpassed Carlos Triunfel as the Mariners' shortstop of the future. Can you hear the pigs in space like reverb on that?

Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves - Every prospect analyst in his right mind is drooling all over Teheran's tools. He has the potential to be as good as any pitcher out there.

Hot Prospects: Mike Minor and Aroldis Chapman

NBC Sports is reporting that the Braves are promoting left-hander Mike Minor to Triple-A Gwinnett after dominating Double-A batters with 109 strikeouts in just 87 innings. Minor is a candidate for a second half call-up if the Braves need the arm. However, they could try to restrict his inning count in just his second professional season.

From Jason Grey

"The No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft is a relatively polished four-pitch southpaw (despite his first-inning blowup in the Rising Stars game). He sits at 90-92 mph but showed he could dial it up to 94 when needed. He had good fade on his change, and his curveball was inconsistent but good at times. He needs to improve his fringy slider, but he's another pitcher who could move very quickly but doesn't have a huge ceiling."

They also have a report on Aroldis Chapman's progress in his transition (at least temporarily) into a reliever.

"Excellent," GM Walt Jocketty said when asked how Chapman was doing as a reliever. "His last time out [on Saturday], he pitched one inning and faced two left-handed hitters and struck them out. He got the right-hander out. In that one performance, he was dominating."

Chapman has allowed one run over three innings in two relief appearances with Triple-A Louisville, striking out five and walking one. The Cuban fireballer was scheduled to work two innings behind the rehabbing Edinson Volquez on Tuesday night.

More on Aroldis Chapman

More on Aroldis Chapman, a hat tip to Drunken Jays Fans for posting this video for me to steal. Aroldis is in New York waiting to meet with the Yankees Brass. As much as I'd love to see him on the Yanks I think it would be even cooler to see him sign with the Washington Nationals. They could sign El Duque to a minor league contract and try to acquire Jose Contreras and they'd be nice filler as the team waited for its prospects to develop. It would also give the Nats two of the best pitching prospects in the sport.




Albertin Aroldis Chapman de la Cruz
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 185 lb.
Born: February, 28, 1988 in Cayo Mambí, Frank País, Holguín, Cuba

* Has a wife and young daughter as well as parents and two sisters still living in Cuba
* Holds the Cuban National Series record for fastest pitch thrown in a game at 102 mph.
* Has a fastball (two seam or four seam), sinking fastball, curveball, slider, changeup and a forkball
* Led the Cuban National Series twice in strikeouts in 2006-2007 and 2008-2009.
* Was recognized as the top left handed pitcher in Baseball World Cup in 2007.
* Defected from the Cuban National Team on July 1, 2009 while participating in the World Port Tournament in Rotterdam, Netherlands
* Signed a representation agreement with Athletes Premier International (API) for contract negotiation and marketing on July 13, 2009
* Obtained provisional passive residency status in the country of Andorra on September 21, 2009
* On September 25, 2009 was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball following their investigation and the United States Department of the Treasury licensed Chapman as an unblocked National of Cuba

Cuban National Series - Holguín
G GS GF GR W L PCT SHO SV IP AB BF H AVG R ER ERA SO BB IBB 2B 3B HR HBP WP
2005-06 15 15 0 0 3 5 .375 0 0 54 200 263 48 .240 33 26 4.33 56 54 1 7 0 5 5 3
2006-07 23 12 0 11 4 3 .571 0 7 81.1 285 350 59 .207 26 25 2.77 100 50 0 8 1 4 9 5
2007-08 16 16 2 0 6 7 .462 1 0 74 275 324 55 .200 36 32 3.89 79 37 2 10 3 3 8 1
2008-09 22 20 1 2 11 4 .733 0 0 118.1 433 515 109 .252 56 53 4.03 130 62 2 16 0 7 9 14
2009 P’OFFS 2 2 1 0 0 2 .000 0 0 14 51 60 12 .235 6 5 3.21 14 7 1 2 0 1 1 0
TOTALS 78 65 4 13 24 21 .533 1 7 341.2 1244 1512 283 .227 157 141 3.72 379 210 6 43 4 20 32 23


International Competition

2007 Pan American Games - Gold Medalist
IP K
1 2

2007 Baseball World Cup - Silver Medalist
Game G JP IP R ER H SO BB HR WP
VS. SO KOREA 1 0 7 2 2 6 9 1 0 0
VS. JAPAN 1 0 8 1 1 3 11 2 0 1
TOTALS 2 15 3 3 9 20 3 0 1

2009 World Baseball Classic
G GS CG W L SHO SV IP H R ER ERA HR HB BB SO WHIP HLD GF
2 2 0 0 1 0 0 6.1 6 4 4 5.68 0 0 4 8 1.58 0 0

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2009/10/mets-meeting-with-cuban-defect.html#ixzz0Up3ssP1w

2010 Free Agent: Aroldis Chapman

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times wrote of Cuban Defector Aroldis Chapman last week:

Envision a 21-year-old pitcher — left-handed, no less — that has lit up radar guns to the tune of 102 mph, drawing raves from scouts as the southpaw Stephen Strasburg. Now consider that this pitcher is not just a myth, but a living, breathing entity, who can be found these days in, of all places, Madrid. And just one other thing: He's a free agent, poised to sign in the upcoming weeks with a major-league team.

Chapman is going to be one of the hottest free agents in the market this fall/winter. Teams are already lining up to make chair-breaking bids. The problem is Chapman unlike the last Cuban pitcher to draw this much interest, Jose Contreras, is not a finished product. He is a prospect. He is extremely raw with little beyond his extreme fastball to his arsenal. His control is just not good at this by most reports.

Fantasy owners with deep minor league systems may well want to take a chance with Chapman. Heck, I recommend that they do. But if you're thinking of Chapman as a player ready to make an impact in 2010 you need to re-think things. He's more Kendry Morales than Contreras.

A Name to Remember: Aroldis Chapman

We have no idea if Aroldis Chapman can even come close to matching the hype created around his signing the last few days but he is definitely a player all fantasy baseball owners should have on their watch lists. If you are in a league with a mid-season farm draft or with very liberal rules for signing free agents, Chapman is worth speculating on.

If the name sounds familiar it is likely the result of watching him in the World Baseball Classic, pitching for the Cuban team. He recently defected while playing in a tournament in the Netherlands with the intention of signing a large contract with an MLB team. Although his performance statistics were mediocre, he impressed many scouts with a fastball that hit triple digits on the radar gun. He also throws a promising change-up pitch.

He has been compared to Jose Contreras another Cuban defector but he is younger and supposedly has the superior talent. If that's true you can expect the bidding to approach $50-60 million. But Chapman is still a raw talent. He will require a team with strong coaches and preferably a reputation for getting good results from raw talented arms.

Other International Signings: (info is courtesy of BaseballAmerica.com)

• The Cardinals signed Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo for $3.1 million.
• The Yankees signed Dominican catcher Gary Sanchez for $3 million as well as Dominican shortstop Damian Arredondo and Dominican righthander Christopher Cabrera for $400,000.
• The Athletics signed Venezuelan shortstop Wilfredo Solano, Junior Martinez, a Venezuelan third baseman, and Venezuelan Outfielder Alfredo Sosa.
• The Blue Jays signed Venezuelan catcher Santiago Nessy.
• The Brewers signed Dominican right fielder Jose Pena.
• The Astros signed Dominican shortstop Jonathan Mejia.
• The Pirates signed outfielder Ping-Hung Chi, righthander Shen-Cin Hong, and first baseman Chih-Wei Hsu all of Taiwan.