What the Blue Jays Have Not Done

With today’s agreement on a contract extension between the Toronto Blue Jays and R.A. Dickey, the Blue Jays have successfully upgraded every aspect of their roster. They have a new leadoff hitter and shortstop in Jose Reyes. They have a new left fielder in Melky Cabrera. They have competition at second base between Macier Izturis (the favorite) and speedster Emilio Bonafacio, who if he is not at second will serve as an upgrade to Omar Vizquel the former utility player. The National Cy Young award winner is just one piece of a dramatically updated starting rotation: Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. The team retained Anthony Gose as insurance against the continued regression of Colby Rasmus. Brett Lawrie is back at third base and primed for a big season after the experience of the 2012 season. The only spot that you might consider upgrading but has not even been considered by the Blue Jays is designated hitter – where their former stud first baseman now resides. 

Not so long ago, Adam Lind was a top prospect and a player that oozed the potential that fantasy owners lust after. The Blue Jays selected him in the third round of the 2004 amateur draft out of South Alabama University. He performed very well in the minors, showing an ability to hit for both average and power. The Blue Jays took their time working him into the regular lineup. He worked as both a part-time designated hitter and left fielder. In 2009 he earned a fulltime role in the lineup and hit .305/.370/.562 with 35 homeruns which was right in line with projections based on his minor league performances. 

He began the 2010 season right where the 2009 season had ended. But in early May of that season he was placed on the disabled list with a back injury which has been a recurring problem ever since. He got off to a great start to the 2011 season hitting .339, with 15 home runs and 44 RBIs in 46 games until the back injuries hit him again. It seems reasonable to assume that the back injuries have affected his swing at times. In fact early in the 2012 season there was a point where he could not bend over because his back was that stiffened and inflamed. Yet, he was not on the disabled list and was being treated with anti-inflammatory medication. Chris Lund of The Hardball Times wrote an article presenting video evidence of the changes in his swing due to the back injury.  He even suggests that the changes to his swing are causing the back injury to recur.

“The back injury is a significant marker because of the shift Lind has made in his swing. The way he engages his torso and lower half puts greater strain on his back for a player trying to generate enough bat speed to hit for power. As such, we have seen Lind miss games due to wrist and back injuries in the time since the original back problem.”

On May 17^th of the 2012 season, Lind was sent to the minors. He was batting just .186 with three homeruns at the time. Two weeks later he was taken off the 40-man roster. The Blue Jays claimed they wanted Lind to work with minor league hitting instructor Chad Mottola on regaining his stroke. They clearly stated that there was no timetable and that he would not be recalled until they were certain he had earned another opportunity. Lind played 35 games altogether in the minors during the 2012 season. He hit .545/.615/.818 in three games at the double-A level, and .392/.448/.664 in 143 plate appearances for triple-A Las Vegas where he worked with Chad Mottola. On June 24^th the Blue Jays recalled Adam Lind to the major leagues. He was a different player at that point.

Season	Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
2012	Mar/Apr	0.21	0.306	0.333	0.639	0.120	0.238	0.283	75
2012	May	0.14	0.213	0.279	0.492	0.140	0.143	0.222	33
2012	Jun	0.29	0.375	0.714	1.089	0.429	0.200	0.454	192
2012	Jul	0.29	0.329	0.470	0.798	0.182	0.356	0.346	118
2012	Aug	0.30	0.333	0.450	0.783	0.150	0.333	0.341	115
2012	Sept/Oct	0.30	0.342	0.447	0.789	0.146	0.319	0.338	113

Obviously Lind did not transform back into the masher of 2009 but he became productive once again with a wRC+  of over one hundred in each month since. The major difference between these numbers and 2009 is almost entirely in batted ball types (and another stint on the disabled list with back problems). Lind is hitting a lot more groundballs and infield flies. His HR/FB took a turn in the right direction but with Lind hitting so many balls on the ground it does not show in his homerun total. However, if Lind does nothing but maintain his swing and this type of production he could hit 20-25 homers with a solid batting average. 

The key to Lind’s productivity is health. If he can stay off the disabled list and do the necessary stretching and exercise to both stay in shape and prevent his back from tightening it could help him put up numbers more in line with his potential. There is some hope that the big changes to the Blue Jays roster this offseason will serve as motivation.  Adam Lind is no longer the young guy that’s been there the longest. He does not have to be the veteran presence or protect anyone in the lineup or even play defense. All he has to do is hit and until the last couple of seasons he had done that very well his entire life.

5 Slumps that are about to End

Also known as the buy-low list, here are five players who are either slumping right now or have been slumping all season, and the reasons why their slumps (hopefully) won't last. Some players are just second-half guys, for whatever reason.

1. Mark Teixeira -- If you have played fantasy baseball at all in the past few years, you know what Teix is capable of doing after the all-star break (which is coming up on July 12). In 2009, he hit .313 after the break and raised both his on-base and slugging percentages significantly. In 2008, the first- and second-half differences were even more dramatic -- he went from batting .271 to .366; slugged nearly 200 points higher (.656 vs. 484) and raised his OBP from .373 to .464. Now is the time to make a play for Teix -- and you are hoping his owner can't take another day of his .230 average so far this season.

2. Derrek Lee -- Lee had an enormous second half last season; and while he is only batting .233 right now (not nearly as good as the .280 first half he posted last season), he posted a .336 average with a .656 slug and .436 OBP after the break in 2009. His current BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is just .275 -- well below his career mark of .321. So, has Lee just been a bit unlucky this season, or has his career turned the downhill corner? My guess is the former. Buy.

3. Mark Reynolds -- Reynolds has improved in the second half in two of the last three seasons, and his career second-half batting average is 10 points higher than first-half. He is another player whose BABIP this season is way below his career mark (currently he is at .271, and his career number is .333). Give his second-half improvement in past years, I would expect his luck to change.

4. Jorge Cantu -- After a red-hot start to the season, Cantu has been plugging along at a snail's pace in the RBI and batting average department. He is batting .210 in June with just 9 RBIs -- just for comparison's sake, he had a .311 average and 23 RBI in April. And yeah, his slugging has fallen dramatically in that span, from .567 at the end of April to the .432 it stands at today. The good news is that Cantu improved slightly in the second half in 2009, and I think a shake-up a the helm in Florida is going to spur him on for the second half this year. This one is more of a gut-feeling pick than the others that are based more in numbers; however, Cantu's BABIP is 21 points below his career average -- so there's that.

5. Adam Lind -- It is much more difficult to predict players that haven't been around all that long. His career splits indicate that he is a much better second-half player, but most of that was determined by the enormous season he posted last year. So what is Lind, who has a .205 BA, just 9 HR and 34 RBI doing wrong? Well first of all, he just may have been pressing -- really hard -- in the first half, trying to reproduce the magic of last season. Toronto has tried to ease the pressure by moving Lind down in the lineup (this week), and he responded by hitting his first homer since May. Cito Gaston says Lind and fellow struggling teammate Aaron Hill (who was moved to sixth in the order) will stay down there until they get hot. His BABIP is .244 so far as opposed to the .323 he had last season -- there must be some middle ground to be had here. It might be risky, but it is probably a cheap enough chance to take.

Honorable Mention: Matt Wieters -- I can't use the numbers to back me up, since he is only in his second season, but his second half last year was awesome. He is only hitting .203 in June, so his slump is for real -- let's see if his second half last year was too.