Trade Advice: Shields/Berkman and Jones/Cruz

Hi Jon,

I'm in a mixed 6 team keeper roto league. I'm considering trading James Shields for Lance Berkman. Both of these players will become free agents at the end of this season. Berkman is suffering from some bad luck with his low babip as we all know. Possibly a good buy low situation?

It is important to note that the rest of my staff includes: Webb, Garza, Cain, Harden, Gallardo and Billingsley. I will surely go over my IP limit with 7 starters.

Thanks,
Jason

Hey Jason, in a six team league (assuming normal size rosters) I imagine there is decent talent available on the waiver wire in case of injuries. I love your pitching staff but with Brandon Webb having injury problems and Rich Harden's history of injuries it is important that you have some emergency options. Your staff is excellent and you are correct that if everything goes well you should easily meet most innings limits even without Shields on your roster.

James Shields is an excellent pitcher. He induces groundballs which helps limit the number of homers allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays have emphasized to their pitchers the importance of pitching to contact and allowing the defense to do its part. This has resulted in a significant drop in strikeouts by the starters. Shields has gone from a K/9 of 7.70 in 2007 to 6.70 in 2008 and just 5.05 thus far in the 2009 season. This is dragging down his fantasy value in 5x5 leagues. In addition, his BABIP is a very low .245 which indicates that a correction could be coming along with a potential jump in earned run average. This is not a pitcher to avoid, but his value looks like it could drop off from previous seasons.
Lance Berkman has started slowly. He suffered from a biceps injury that caused him to miss a few days early this season. This was reported as a minor injury and we haven't heard Berkman complain about it since his return. But he is presently batting .189 with six homeruns. His walk and strikeout rates are both a little higher than usual. His power seems as good as usual. This definitely looks (as Jason suggested) like just bad luck caused by a his pathetic .182 BABIP.

I would make this trade in an instant if I were in Jason's shoes. You probably won't have another chance to get Berkman at a value like this again this season as he is showing signs of breaking out of the slump.

Hi Jon

Great site and valuable insights. Wanted to get your thoughts on a trade offer. I'm strong in steals/runs, but need some power. Another owner has offered me Nelson Cruz in exchange for Adam Jones. While both players are at a peak right now, I'm not quite sold on Nelson maintaining his value through the year.

What do you think?

Thanks
Dan

Thanks for reading Dan. I like both players and I did write ups on them very recently. You can check them out here and here. I have faith that Nelson Cruz can continue to hit at his current power pace. The average could take a dip but I have faith that if healthy he will hit thirty homers this season. I like Adam Jones just as much and I think Jones will be a better player in the long term.

You did not provide too many details about your league but assuming there is not anything strange these two players are pretty equal in my eyes for the 2009 season. In a keeper league I would not part with Adam Jones because I believe his future is brighter. I also do not believe that there is a significant enough power difference between the two that would make this trade worthwhile for you. If you really want to move Jones for a power hitter I would aim much higher.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

Trade Jose Reyes for Greinke, Jones, and Hill?

I'm in a 14 team 4 player keeper league that is now in its fifth year. I can't sleep at night with a feeling of buyers remorse after making a trade yesterday. I decided to deal my fantasy God Jose Reyes for Zack Greinke, Adam Jones, and Aaron Hill. I have owned Reyes since his career began but this trade seemed so interesting. Did I do the wrong thing here in getting rid of Reyes for possibly some players who could be over performing now. Honestly I just wanted to hear an outside opinion because I'm getting ripped apart on the boards in my league.

-- Scott

I think you can relax, Scott. I think you made a great deal for yourself. It is always hard when you give up the unquestioned best player in the deal. You are right that Zack Greinke probably will not have an earned run average under 1.00 for the entire season. Adam Jones is unlikely to bat for a .380 average. Aaron Hill may hit 20 homeruns but I would be shocked if he hit the 30-plus for which he is presently on pace. But that is no reason to worry.
Zack Greinke is becoming the ace pitcher he was always projected to be. He should be a Cy Young contender all season. He is striking out better than a batter per inning which is excellent for a starter but only slightly better than the pace has established over the last few seasons. His BABIP is .292 so far which indicates that he hasn't been particularly lucky with balls in play. He induces ground balls so he should limit the damage that flyballs can do as well. FanGraphs has him with an FIP of 1.38 (compare it to ERA if you aren't familiar -- with some luck factors removed) so it is not an illusion, he is in fact pitching like an ace.

Adam Jones has been projected as a potential 30/30 star outfielder by dozens of analysts including me. In addition, Jones was predicted to ready for a breakout entering this season by just about every fantasy writer in the business. He is being more patient at the plate so far with 9.1 percent walk rate compared to a 5.2 percent career rate. His contact rate has improved and swinging at better pitches naturally leads to better numbers. I believe the batting average will come down to the .290-.300 range. But the power? The power is here to stay. I think we're looking at a very real 30/30 ((okay, maybe 30/20) season in the making.

I've always liked Aaron Hill a little more than most. Probably because I drafted him as a minor leaguer in my primary AL-only and he contributed to a championship. Hill is getting lucky at the plate so far. His walk and strikeout rates are right at his career averages. His BABIP is at .388, almost 70 points over his career average. His career high in homeruns is just 17 (hit the year before his injury) but at age 27 he would not be the first player with experience to see a power spike. I doubt he hits 30 homers but a career high in the 20-25 range would not be ridiculous. His average will come closer to his career .289 average. Some might consider this a disappointing analysis but a .290 average with 20-plus homers from second base is not a bad thing.

I have to assume Scott, because he made the deal that he is not concerned with stolen bases because this is the area you will no doubt lose the most. Jose Reyes is in a mini-slump after starting the season fairly hot. This is mostly the result of an unlucky streak. His BABIP is .283, almost 40 points below his 2008 level and 27 points below his career level. I am not at all worried about Reyes' production. Jones will lessen that loss slightly but the big benefit in this trade is in homeruns, Runs, RBI, and adding the (presently anyway) best pitcher in baseball. You should relax Scott, and tell your league mates they can drink out of your championship trophy at the end of the season...after they admit they were wrong.