Showing posts with label 2011 Sleepers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 Sleepers. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

The 2011 Fantasy Baseball All Sleeper Teams

The idea of sleepers is an out-dated one. However, it is a tremendous amount of fun for fantasy
owners to come up with players that seem under-rated based on a wide variety of circumstances. If you split those collectively thought as sleepers into groups based on what makes them interesting, you might come up with teams like these.

Easy Like Apple Pie

C Mike Napoli - He is finally with a team that appreciates his skills but be careful not to over estimate his playing time. He'll be the primary DH against left-handers (and he'll rock at that) but at-bats against righties could be tough to come by on a crowded Rangers roster.

C Matt Wieters - So few catchers have ever been dominate offensive players at Wieter's age that calling him a sleeper seems unfair. Like calling a teenager a potential adult, if you just wait a few years he'll probably get there.

1B Mitch Moreland - He's young but he's a fairly disciplined hitter that should hit for both average and power in the middle of a great lineup in a great park for hitters. Plus he won't cost nearly as much as the equivalent hitter with more experience. Would you rather have a $12 Moreland or a $23 Derrek Lee?

3B Pablo Sandoval - His confidence is soaring, he's in the best shape of his life and his new condition should guarantee that doesn't get benched for poor defense again.

CR Jerry Sands - He won't begin the season with the team but he's too much the powerful hitter the Dodgers need to stay in the minors the entire season. I'm betting he's up in May.

2B Sean Rodriguez - He does a little of everything, and the price is right to gamble on what he does with career high at-bats. Twenty homers and a few steals would fit nicely on my teams.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI Gordon Beckham - His potential is just too high to give up on. Plus, the White Sox rushed him a bit anyway, so the slump was something not very difficult to fortell.

OF Jason Heyward - If he stays on the field (and healthy while doing so) for 550-600 at-bats, he's a potential 2011 MVP.

OF Mike Stanton - This is your next National League Homerun King. If you're worried that he won't hit for average you haven't been watching closely enough.

OF Dexter Fowler - He has all the tools and the developing skills to explode on the scene a lot like teammate Carlos Gonzalez did in 2010. Now he needs a cool nickname, De-Fowl? De-Ler? Dexter is a serial killer to me now...

OF Jay Bruce - Bruce hit .338/.418/.700 during August-October. Bruce hit 15 HR in his final 35 games. Bruce is coming around.

UTL Manny Ramirez - With Manny it is all about health and motivation. He seems motivated to keep his career going. He the opportunity, now he just needs to go do it. Are you really betting against him?

SP Shawn Marcum - He proved last season that he was fully recovered from elbow surgery. This season he gets not only the bump from moving from the American League to the National League, but a bump from the AL-East to the NL-Central. He is my pitcher to get in NL-only Leagues this season.

Or he was, until this came up:
Shaun Marcum left his start on Wednesday because of shoulder tightness, and while Marcum downplayed what he felt, his manager sounds concerned. From Andrew Gruman's story: "There is definitely concern there," said [Ron] Roenicke. "His neck bothered him the last couple of days and when he went out there today, he thought it was the neck. I don't know if he was overcompensating, I don't know. We're in a tough spot if he's down for a while." One evaluator who saw Marcum's start on Thursday clocked his fastball at 86 mph. Not a good sign. Marcum has never been a power pitcher, but what concerns evaluators who have seen him this spring, beyond the velocity, is the quality of his fastball. Hopefully for the Brewers and for Marcum, he'll get better as he goes along.
SP Matt Garza - Garza gets the same bumps as Marcum but a lot of analysts seem to feel he'll be hurt by Wrigley Field (at least the ones that don't just think he's overrated do). I think what he gains in the switch (like facing pitchers instead of David Ortiz, Adam Lind, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero) will more than make up for a few extra homers allowed due to park factors.

SP Edison Volquez - The ace the Reds are looking for isn't Homer Bailey or even Aroldis Chapman. What you're hoping is that your league mates pay too much attention his control numbers in 2010. We know his control is better than that, he had quite a bit of bad luck, the statistical kind and the regular kind. I think he's ready to step up big time with a contending team at his back.

SP Jonathan Sanchez - Slow and steady progress isn't as exciting as the big splash but you can often get it cheaper. He's definitely going to pitch better in 2011, but he may not be as fortunate with his BABIP, so be cautious in bidding.

SP Phil Hughes - All he needs is to get his confidence back with his change-up and he becomes a top 20 pitcher without a single doubt. That's the pitch he's been working on all Spring Training. It's gonna happen.

SP Daniel Hudson - He had an amazing second half, Hudson may not be an "ace" but he is damn good. He and Mr. Kennedy will put the D'backs back in contention.

RP Frank Francisco - The favorite for saves in Toronto. His only problem has been staying healthy. He does not have the platoon problems that the other candidates for the job have.

RP J.J. Putz - The new closer in Arizona. Don't let the injuries and non-closer season get you down on Putz. He's as good as they come when healthy.

RP Drew Storen - This great young pitcher surrounded by solid bullpen talent should be able to thrive as the Nationals new closer. He isn't being drafted very high so he makes a great later rounds saves grab. Forget his spring numbers, he'll be fine.


An Apple a Day

C Jarod Saltalamaccia - Yes he has had his struggles but most of them were health related. He has his confidence back and a major opportunity. He's going to smash this season if he stays on the field.

C Russell Martin - He looks healthy so far. That doesn't necessarily mean his bat will bounce back but if he can return to hitting for average even with reduced power, he'll be one of the better catchers in the American League.

1B Derrek Lee - If the back isn't cranky,and the hand problem isn't serious, Lee is going to love Camden Yards which gives a giant homer assist to right-handed batters. That boost should help minimize the effects of aging on this classy slugger.

3B Chipper Jones - Some injury prone guys you just give up on drafting. But Chipper has always been different. He wants to contribute so bad and is still quite a hitter when healthy. It makes you wish the Braves were in the American League.

CR Lance Berkman - He is in better shape but the outfield will still be a challenge for him at this point.But as long as his legs are solid, I expect to see a resurgence in his bat.

2B Brian Roberts - Back problems are scary. When I originally placed him on this list it looked like he was coming into the season strong. Now I'm a bit more worried but I'll still take him his present discount.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI J.J. Hardy - Hardy is not an ideal choice in H2H leagues because he is as streaky as they come. But with health and a favorable new park come 20 homers.

OF Grady Sizemore - You cannot risk drafting him as a top 30 outfielder as some have been doing. But if you get him in the pick 100-120 area I think you'll be happy with the return even if it isn't quite the long dreamed of 30/30 season.

OF Carlos Beltran - I thought he was comingback healthy this season but he is not bouncing back quite as well as hoped. Part of it is probably the Mets and Beltran being cautious. But at some point he needs to prove he can play, then my early Beltran picks in mock drafts will be justified. (Are you watching Justified on FX? A great show.)

OF Jacoby Ellsbury - A potential 70 steal guy, before the injuries. He has looked fantastic this spring.

OF Justin Upton - He was held back by a sore shoulder for most of the 2010 season. With health and good fortune I see an explosion coming, similar to Ken Griffey, Junior, after his 1992 season. Look it up, kids.

UTL Mark DeRosa - He should play multiple positions for the Giants this season. He has a way to go before he has proven he can return to his former production levels but at his ADP, I don't think it will be a problem.

SP Brandon Webb - He won't start the season with his former Cy Young form completely intact. He is healthy, but re-gaining his mechanics will take a while. He is best drafted if you have the ability to reserve him in April and May while he gets his mojo back.

SP Jordan Zimmerman - Tommy John Surgery is not quite the problem it used to be for pitchers (and their fantasy owners). Players used to need 18-24 months to fully recover both physically and to re-gain effectiveness. That has been trending closer to 12-14 months of late.

SP Jake Peavy - He sure looks healthy to me this Spring Training. I've cautioned against high expectations with Peavy but he should remain a top American League starting pitcher.

SP Josh Beckett - Josh gives owners a lot to think about. I still have a mild fear that he remains the keeper of a secret injury. The reduction in fastball velocity followed by the reduction in use of the fastball. Could an injury be the cause? But he was also unlucky in 2010, and even if he pitches basically the same, better luck would make him a decent starter in AL-only leagues. Then there's that blow to the head...

RP Huston Street - Okay, so he's a little on the fragile side. But he does his rehab and comes back strong every time. When he stops bouncing back I'll stop drafting him.

RP Joe Nathan - Tommy John Surgery just isn't the problem it used to be. These days a guy returns in 12-14 months and he's stronger than ever.


Teach A Man to Fish...

C Derek Norris - Ivan Rodriguez, Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores are all in his way but Norris is the one who be guiding the Nationals pitching staff when they are ready to win. He'll prove that this season. He has the best bat of the bunch (by far) and though he has areas to improve defensively, throwing out 50 percent of potential basestealers will win you a ton of leeway.

C Robinson Chirinos - If nothing else he is more interesting than John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach. The Rays like him a lot, the Tampa Bay bloggers like him a lot and PECOTA likes him a lot. Here's a clip from TheProcessReport.com (one of the better Rays blogs out there):
So, imagine my delight when PECOTA projects a rather solid line for Chirinos right out of the chute: .261/.369/.455. That’s pretty good from any position, but catcher? Forget about it, consider that Prospectus has the league average catcher at .248/.321/.379 last season, leaving Chirinos with at least a .013 point advantage across the board. Impressive stuff, except some parts of this post are lies.

Prospectus does not have Chirinos projected at .261/.369/.455; Prospectus has Chirinos projected at .276/.360/.471. Even better – so why the deceit? Because the line everyone, from you to me to your mother would have taken from Chirinos belongs to someone hated in the fan base – Kelly Shoppach – and it’s not a projection, but rather how he hit left-handers last season. Folks are so quick to dismiss Shoppach from the roster for flavor of the month candidates like Jose Lobaton and Nevin Ashley that they forget Shoppach has utility to this roster and provided value last season.


1B Dan Johnson - Remember him? I'll let TPR take the lead again:
According to the research of Jason Hanselman of Dock of The Rays, Johnson’s expected BABIP (xBABIP) should have been right around the league average at .301. That equates to 13 extra hits and an expected slash line of .311/.432/.527. Even the biggest Johnson supporters would say that line is extremely optimistic, but keep in mind we’re talking about a small sample size of 40 games. The point is, even if Johnson’s 2011 BABIP is in the neighborhood of .250-.260, his batting average will improve and so will his already admirable on-base percentage.


3B Ian Stewart - It seems like he's been around forever but he is just 25 years old. He is finally feeling his job threatened and it seems to be exactly the motivation he needed. Stewart has been more vocal in the clubhouse and is putting up a fight for his job. He is working with hitting coach Carney Lansford on a slight alteration to his stance against lefties and on using the entire field rather than the pull-heavy style he has used in recent years. The potential is there and now the motivation is too.

CR Brett Wallace - A lot of teams are going to regret giving up on Brett Wallace so soon. He was a great hitter in college and a great prospect for the Cardinals, then after a year of being shuffled about we're shocked he lost his swing mechanics for a minute and struggled in an unexpected Major League debut? He's kicking ass this Spring, especially relative to the other Astros hitters.

2B Ryan Raburn - He is finally getting the playing time he'll need to make a serious impact on your fantasy team. Seriously, 30 homers (an increasingly rare feat) is a real possibility.

SS Alcides Escobar - Once the favored prospect of the Brewers, he was gonna be the base-stealing, gold glove shortstop of the next decade. Instead he is a Kansas City Royal. All that stuff he was gonna do for the Brewers? He'll just be doing it for the Royals' soon-to-be loaded and contending team.

MI Jed Lowrie - He is a better shortstop than Marcos Scutaro in almost every way, but Terry Francona is a loyal guy and he'll force Lowrie to fight for every at-bat and prove he deserves to play.

OF Logan Morrison - He has more power than early drafters seem to believe. He is only going to get better over the next few seasons. Even now he should hit for average with decent power and score a bunch of runs batting in front of Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez.

OF Carlos Gomez - Yeah, he's hitting .400 this spring. Sometimes it just takes time, sometimes it takes tough love, sometimes you just need people to think Lorenzo Cain is better than you.

OF Roger Bernadina - He is fighting for a starting outfield spot with the Nationals. Draft him whether he wins or loses. The Rick Ankiel and Nyjer Morgan types can't block him for much longer. He'll provide power and speed even as a bench guy.

UTL Juan Miranda - It looks like Russell Branyan will win the first base job. That is very understandable for a team that wants to win games now. I still back Miranda as a decent sleeper because the Diamondbacks have a gaping hole in left field, where Miranda can also play (if not particularly well. But he has a left field bat, which is more than you can say for most of the other candidates.

SP Craig Stammen - A strong groundball rate, a strong swinging strike rate that suggests his K-rate will rebound to levels closer to those on his minor league resume. And he'll be available so cheaply, you can't lose.

SP Carlos Carrasco - It seems like he's been around forever. He is just 24-years old. Analysts have debated for a few ears about his upside, mid-rotation or potential ace. He'll show us which this season, either way the price is right for acquiring him.

SP James McDonald - The Dodgers of the last few years give up on guys far too quickly. McDonald struggled a bit but he never got the chance to adjust. Now the Pirates will reap the benefits.

SP Phil Coke -When a guy gets moved from starting to relieving early in his career, we often forget how successful he was in his former role. Coke isn't a superstar but he's going to be a solid rotation guy.

SP Gio Gonzalez - A friend of mine has lost his mind trying to add Gio Gonzalez in every league. He's absolutely positive he is the next big breakout pitcher. He did have an amazing second half of the season. Gonzalez is also having a very nice Spring Training.

SP Brian Matusz - Matusz is a future ace. There no denying it. Do what you can to acquire him now. He's heating up this spring the way he did in the second half last season.

SP Max Scherzer - After his brief demotion, Scherzer posted a 2.46 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning over his final 23 starts. That's one of the best pitchers in baseball for almost two thirds of the season.

RP Ryan Webb - He has the stuff to close. I've always hated Leo Nunez.

RP Kenley Jansen - He's a middle reliever you want on your pitching staff. He'll help your pitching staff (especially in strikeouts) more than a lot of starters would.



RP Johnny Venters - The man who should be closing for the Braves, he has the strikeout rate plus the control the other guy struggles with.

RP Evan Meek - The man who should be closing for the Pirates, he has the strikeout rate plus the control the other guy struggles with.

Its Not Where You're From...

C Hank Conger - As the only catcher the Angels have, who knows how to use a baseball bat, Conger is bound to get playing time. He can hit but he's still a rookie so don't overbid.

C Jonathan Lecroy - He'll miss four weeks with a finger fracture but he is still the starting catcher. He can hit a little too. He'll be a great one dollar catcher in 2011.

1B Adam Dunn - One of the best sluggers in baseball is moving from an National League pitchers' park to one of the best homer parks in the American League. Fifty homers is not out of the question.

3B Edwin Encarnacion - His potential is immense. Imagine he starts taking to the same coaching Jose Bautista starting to use the last couple of years? I have a hunch this could be the year. He's been sufficiently humbled.

CR Carlos Pena - It was a big portion of bad luck for a guy who has a small margin for error. He should rebound this season with the Cubs who have a ballpark he should enjoy mashing within.

2B Chris Getz - You don't need every guy to be a hall of famer. You just need guys that will produce more than their cost to you. Getz will hit a few homers and steal some bases. He may even qualify at multiple positions.

SS Luis Cruz - It is very anti-sabremetrics of me to admit this, but I think Yuniesky Betancourt has been underrated, and even abused by the pro-Advanced Stat crowd. Sure, he isn't a great player but he gets ground into the dirt whenever his name is mentioned. It's a little much. But if the Brewers get sick of Betancourt's mediocre defense and his inconsistent bat, Luis Cruz is ready and raring to go. He tore up the winter leagues, don't take my word for it, go look it up.

MI Omar Infante - No, he doesn't really rank as an All-Star but he is a solid player about to get a career high number of at-bats. That usually equals career high stats for the talented guys and Infante is a talented guy. Plus, he's one of those guys that just looks like a Baseball Player.

OF Jay Gibbons - A once solid bat, that is probably out of place as a starter. It looks like Marcus Thames and Tony Gwynn are going to take a lot of at-bats from him. But for a buck or two, in a deep NL-only, he could be useful.

OF Rajai Davis - He hits for average, he steals a ton of bases and he'll score a mega-ton of runs. Don't get all down on him because of his on-base percentage, that probably doesn't matter in your league anyway.

OF Jordan Schafer - He's back, he's healthy and swinging the bat as he did a few years back. As soon as an opening presents itself he'll be the best fifth outfielder you've ever owned.

OF David Murphy - Because of the Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli acquisitions, Murphy will be sitting a little more than usual at the start of the season. But with Josh Hamilton fragile, Nelson Cruz fragile, and Julio Borbon inconsistent thus far - Murphy will get his at-bats.

SP Aaron Harang - Once upon a time owners actually wanted to draft Harang. He was a fairly effective pitcher with a decent strikeout rate. Then he ran into Dusty Baker and an unfavorable ballpark and everything went to hell. Now he has a manager used to coddling fragile arms and the best pitching park in the game.

SP Jeff Francis - The former ace of the Rockies has had some rough times of late, mostly due to injuries but seems healthy now, if not quite what he was once projected to be. He still has some stuff and a mind that knows how to use that stuff, and a ballpark stingy with homeruns.

SP Chris Young - See Jeff Francis, but change Rockies to Padres.

SP Kyle McClellan - They keep calling him the fifth starter for the Cardinals, but he won't be at the end of the season. Then they'll be calling him ace.

SP Mark Rzepczynski - With a new manager in place, a pitching oriented one, Rzepczynski has a chance to win a spot in the rotation again, or at least become a regular in the bullpen. Either way, I expect him to be very useful in AL-only leagues.

RP Joel Peralta - Someone has to get saves in Tampa Bay, it may as well be Peralta. If nothing else he's the cheapest of the guys projected to be part of the time-share.

RP Henry Rodriguez - I just like guys that can sling in 100mph in bullpens with closers I don't like.

RP Matt Belisle - He is not flashy but he is effective and in a bullpen with weaknesses.

RP Jordan Walden - He is the future closer of the Angels. Get him now.

RP Jesse Crain - If Thornton chokes on the big job, this guy rather than Sale just might be the answer.


Flying Pigs in a Wintery Hell

C Brayan Pena - The Royals would rather start broken down Jason Kendall.

C Jason Castro - He finally has a complete opportunity in his grasp and he gets hurt again.

1B Jason Giambi - He can still hit a ton of homeruns. If Todd Helton goes down again...

3B Jose Lopez - Everyone except the Rockies management apparently, would rather see Eric Young Jr. win the second base job this season.

CR Dallas McPherson - The White Sox may actually keep him on their bench this season. Maybe he'll put some at-bats together.

2B Luis Hernandez - He may have gotten some press as a possibility for the Mets but it will never happen.

SS Eric Farris - A toolsy possibility should the Brewers get sick of their mediocre and injury-prone middle infielders.

OF Carlos Gomez - Sure he has yet to show much potential in the majors but it's in there somewhere. Maybe the great spring is a sign.

OF Matt Joyce - The Rays traded for him and then they let him sit around for a while. But apparently he'll get serious play this season. In that case, you want him.

OF Johnny Damon - He'll keep Desmond Jennings down on the farm all season. No better reason for resentment than that.

SP Zack Duke - He depends on defense and the Pirates gave him none last season.

SP Scott Olsen - He's not even close to what he was maybe with a team like the Pirates he can accept that.

SP Paul Maholm - See Zack Duke.

SP Esmil Rogers - He gets the strikeouts and the groundballs, he just needs to have some BABIP luck, or stop allowing so many linedrives, either one. Looks like he has a spot in the rotation all sewed up.

SP Shawn Hill - He is always hurt, but when healthy he can be an effective starter.

RP Dontrelle Willis - His spring started off okay, but this is probably the last shot for Willis.

RP Fernando Rodney - He'll get saves but his ratio stats will suck.

Built-In Resentment

C Chris Ianetta - This is clearly Ianetta's last opportunity to prove himself with the Rockies. According to Denver Post columnist Troy Renck, minor-league catching prospect Jordan Pacheco has impressed veterans with his plate discipline and understanding of his swing. He says there are some in the organization that believe he can hit big-league pitching this season.

C Matt Wieters - In a lot of keeper leagues, Wieters owners have to decide before the season starts whether he deserves a contract extension or not. Prediction: Wieters will be available in a lot of drafts in 2012.

1B Kila Ka'aihue - In this case the resentment isn't ours. It comes from Royals GM Dayton Moore who hates that the power and average providing Ka'aihue has forced himself into the big league picture. He's also hated by those that need to spell his name.

3B Brandon Wood - Now that no one cares, he's absolutely positive to produce great numbers for a shortstop/third baseman.

CR Andy Marte - The Pirates are the latest team to give him a look.

2B Ben Zobrist - There is a guy in one of my leagues that could have traded his one dollar Zobrist for almost anything, but he held on to him. He thought the power was for real (so did I ) but it hasn't worked out so well so far.

SS Drew Sutton - A disciplined player in the Ben Zobrist class of hitters. He could start the season with the Red Sox. he won't get many at-bats but if an injury happens he could have use in AL-only.

MI Robert Andino - With J.J. Hardy injury-prone and Cedeno without a bat, Andino might be the best offensive option at short the Orioles have, at least at times during the season.

OF Felix Pie - The baseball gods just won't give Pie a break. When hBolde plays well he either gets hurt or is then stuck on the bench behind a more proven player. He has not played well from the bench in his career but he says he's better prepared for that role this season.

OF Nate McClouth - He's back. No one knows where he went but 20/20 is once again a possibility.

OF Jeff Francouer - He is in a very comfortable situation. A coaching staff he's familiar with and an upper management that has faith in him. He has been put into a leadership role on a very young team. I have a hunch he has a decent season. But I won't pay more than a buck or two.

OF Alex Gordon - Judging by his Spring Training numbers he really wants to play on your team this season. Will you let him?

OF Julio Borbon - Many owners were disappointed by Borbon in 2010. But giving up on him is probably a mistake. He has the talent to be a top fantasy outfielder.

UTL David Ortiz - Something his slow starts the last couple of seasons has seen his stock drop dramatically in early drafts this season. I think he has another great season in him, especially surrounded by so much talent on the Red Sox.

SP A.J. Burnett - He's had a great spring and he has all the talent in the world. However, he tends to let us down.

SP Javier Vasquez - Except for those years with the Expos (doesn't that seem like a million years ago) and that one season with the Braves, he's been disappointing. He might be a solid pitcher this season but if you pay for more than that I name you sucker.

SP Oliver Perez - Maybe he can find a team that won't trash his mechanics and then release him when he loses velocity. Harold Reynolds agrees.

SP Joel Pinero - He's never quite as good as we hope.

SP Jason Hammel - Hammel tends to struggle with men on base. Probably because he gets hammered when pitching out of the stretch. However until those base runners get on he is a pretty good pitcher.

RP Joba Chamberlain - He's got his velocity back. Makes a huge difference. The oblique injury is just annoying.

RP Wilton Lopez - He pitches for that Astros, but I like him. I like him quite a but actually.

OFF THE BENCH

C Bobby Wilson - The Angels are obsessed with defense and Bobby Wilson may be the only possibility that can provide a great defensive presence and not be a complete zero with the bat.

C Jake Fox - At the time of this writing, Fox was leading the majors in Spring Training homers and RBI. He could always hit, he just needs a position to play and the opportunity to get 400 or so at-bats. Buck Showalter might be the man to give it to him. If he gets 20-30 starts at catcher that would really rock.

1B Chris Davis - Every season he puts on a late season homer display and looks like the second coming in Spring Training.The question is always, is this the year? In 806 at-bats, Davis has 39 homers, which isn't too bad, it is the 278 strikeouts in that same period that kills him.

3B Eric Chavez - He's healthy and playing quite a bit in Spring Training. Damn, he used to be good. One of the best actually.

CR Jorge Vazquez - This big guy can hit. Only Eric Chavez is standing in his way. Chavez is bound to get hurt doing that.

2B Josh Barfield - He probably just lost a nice role to Luis Castillo.

SS Eduardo Nunez - Look him up, he's better than you think. He'll be stealing some bases for the Yankees this season.

MI Scott Sizemore - The Tigers were willing to call him the starter at second last year before Spring Training even started. They'll find a place for him this season.

OF Marcus Thames - He should play quite a bit with Gibbons considered the full time left fielder. Thames has stupid power.

OF Alejandro De Aza - He'll steal some bases, no matter what.

OF Mike Morse - He could always hit, he's just never been given the opportunity to put 500 at-bats together as a starter. He might win a starting role this spring, either way he's going to play this season, a lot.

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. - The Dodgers would be very happy if Gwynn won their center field job and pushed Kemp to left field. He's having a great spring, maybe the combination of Daddy and Donnie Baseball has got everything finally clicking. At worst you'll still collect a couple dozen steals.

UTL Mark Trumbo - He'll man first base while Kendry Morales is on the disabled list.

Rookie of the Year Candidates

C Carlos Santana - He does everything and he's a catcher. Bold Statement: Forget Buster Posey, this is your man. You're gonna love him.

C Jesus Montero - There is some doubt out there bout whether Montero can remain at the catcher position but it isn't coming from the higher ups in the Yankees organization. Mark Newman admitted to John Sickels that there was a point when Montero was indeed a bad catcher. However, he has worked very hard to learn the position and Newman believes he can be average at the position. With this guy's bat that is more than good enough, and fantastic news for Montero owners. And yes, he can play from the bench.

1B Brandon Belt - His excellent bat control and great coaching has helped him shoot through the Giants system. He may never return to the minors.

3B Lonnie Chisenhall - The cheapskate Indians just sent him back to the minors to save a few bucks but he'll be back really soon. He isn't Mike Schmidt but he should hit for average and power.

CR Mike Moustakas - Okay, he might be Mike Schmidt.

2B Jason Kipnis - The Indians are loaded with great talent again. Kipnis is another that could be playing for the tribe right now. Hopefully the Indians don't screw it up again.

SS Danny Espinosa - A potential 20/20 shortstop is definitely somthing we fantasy guys like to see. His batting average may not impress but it shouldn't kill you unless you have other BA-less players keeping you down.

MI Brett Lawrie - He has a solid chance to skip Triple-A ans start the season with the Toronto Blue Jays.

OF Domonic Brown - The broken hand may end up being the best thing to happen to Domonic Brown. Rather than face the pressure of winning a spot he can relax, rehab and then get a call-up after tearing up the minors for a few weeks more. It's all good.

OF Eric Thames - A toolsy outfield prospect for the Blue Jays. If Travis Snider fails to make it happen you could see him mid-season.

OF Brett Jackson - Blocked in the Cubs outfield for now. I love his bat and feel he's slightly underrated. Probably because he's a Cub.

OF Trayvon Robinson - He's a bit raw but has potential superstar written all over him. A faster Matt Kemp is my comparison.

OF Will Myers - If he was remaining a catcher for reals, he might be the number one prospect in baseball. Hell have to settle for top ten.

UTL Eric Hosmer - The 2011 Baseball Prospectus called him Batman. What else do you need to know?

SP Zach Britton - My favorite pitching prospect, an extreme groundball guy with a knack for striking guys out. It looks like he'll make the team out of spring training.

SP Michael Pineda - Pineda has the strikeouts and control to be on a bunch of sleeper lists. But the topper for me is the ability to also induce groundballs. No, I can't say it enough.

SP Jeremy Hellickson - Everyone loves him, he'll probably be over priced.

SP Kyle Drabek - Son of Doug and a future ace on his own merits.

SP Mike Minor - Picked because he would move quickly through the system, he turned out to be better than even the Braves expected.

SP Ivan Nova - Ivan Nova was 12-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 Triple-A starts in 2010. He is one of many young Yankees having a great Spring Training.

SP Mark Rogers - He has the stuff when healthy. It used to be better stuff but it's still plenty good. He won't begin the season with the big league team because he's been slow stretching out, but he'll be up soon if all goes well.

RP Jake McGee - He's begging to close, so far Joe Maddon is ignoring him.

RP Chris Sale - He won't get the first shot at the closer role but he should still have great stats. Just don't pay too much.

RP Craig Kimbrel - The new close for the Braves. You can't ignore the strikeout rate, he should be an exciting pitcher to own.

RP Aroldis Chapman - He won't close this year and he isn't likely to start either but he has the stuff for either job. The starting would take some time, the closing he's ready to do now.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Looking for 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers?

Are you looking for sleepers for your fantasy league draft? You've come to the right place. Today I present (yes, as a tease) just the first of the eight teams of sleepers in the annual All Sleeper Teams article. The rest should be up tonight (please please please...)

Let the name of the team be your guide.

Easy Like Apple Pie


C Mike Napoli - He is finally with a team that appreciates his skills but be careful not to over estimate his playing time. He'll be the primary DH against left-handers (and he'll rock at that) but at-bats against righties could be tough to come by.

C Matt Wieters - So few catchers have ever been dominate offensive players at Wieter's age that calling him a sleeper seems unfair. Like calling a teenager a potential adult, if you just wait a few years he'll probably get there.

1B Mitch Moreland - He's young but he's a fairly disciplined hitter that should hit for both average and power in the middle of a great lineup in a great park for hitters. Plus he won't cost nearly as much as the equivalent hitter with more experience. Would you rather have a $12 Moreland or a $23 Derrek Lee?

3B Pablo Sandoval - His confidence is soaring, he's in the best shape of his life and his new condition should ensure that doesn't get benched for poor defense again.

CR Jerry Sands - He won't begin the season with the team but he's too much the powerful hitter the Dodgers need to stay in the minors the entire season. I'm betting he's up in May.

2B Sean Rodriguez - He does a little of everything, and the price is right to gamble on what he does with career high at-bats.

SS Jose Reyes - He's healthy again, he's playing for a new contract with a manager who values him for what he does, rather than what he might do. That is to say watch him steal 70 bases in 2011.

MI Gordon Beckham - His potential is just too high to give up on. Plus, the White Sox rushed him a bit anyway, so the slump was something not very difficult to fortell.

OF Jason Heyward - If he stays on the field (and healthy while doing so) for 550-600 at-bats, he's a potential 2011 MVP.

OF Mike Stanton - This is your next National League Homerun King. If you're worried that he won't hit for average you haven't been watching closely enough.

OF Dexter Fowler - He has all the tools and the developing skills to explode on the scene a lot like teammate Carlos Gonzalez did in 2010. Now he needs a cool nickname, De-Fowl? De-Ler? Dexter is a serial killer to me now...

OF Jay Bruce - Bruce hit .338/.418/.700 during August-October. Bruce hit 15 HR in his final 35 games. Bruce is coming around.

UTL Manny Ramirez - With Manny it is all about health and motivation. He seems motivated to keep his career going. He the opportunity, now he just needs to go do it. Are you really betting against him?

SP Shawn Marcum - He proved last season that he was fully recovered from elbow surgery. This season he gets not only the bump from moving from the American League to the National League, but a bump from the AL-East to the NL-Central. He is my pitcher to get in NL-only Leagues this season.

SP Matt Garza - Garza gets the same bumps as Marcum but a lot of analysts seem to feel he'll be hurt by Wrigley Field (at least the ones that don't just think he's overrated do). I think what he gains in the switch (like facing pitchers instead of David Ortiz, Adam Lind, Jorge Posada and Vladimir Guerrero) will more than make up for a few extra homers allowed due to park factors.

SP Edison Volquez - He is the ace the Reds have been looking for. He'll prove it this season.

SP Jonathan Sanchez - I just love all those strikeouts. He's jumping up a level this season.

SP Phil Hughes - The Little Rocket (so named by Jason Giambi) takes off this season.

SP Daniel Hudson - He had an amazing second half, Hudson may not be an "ace" but he is damn good. He and Mr. Kennedy will put the D'backs back in contention.

RP Frank Francisco - The favorite for saves in Toronto. His only problem has been staying healthy. He does not have the platoon problems that the other candidates for the job have.
Bold
RP J.J. Putz - The new closer in Arizona. Don't let the injuries and non-closer season get you down on Putz. He's as good as they come when healthy.

RP Drew Storen - This great young pitcher surrounded by solid bullpen talent should be able to thrive as the Nationals new closer. He isn't being drafted very high so he makes a great later round saves grab.

Wait until you see the rest of the teams. You will LOVE it.

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

2011 AL-Only Sleeper: Mitch Talbot


Mitch Talbot has been around.

I don't mean to make him sound that half-full container of sour cream in the back of your refrigerator. Just that he has seems to have been floating around baseball for a while before landing with the Indians in 2010. He isn't exactly old, he'll turn 28 at the end of the season. But because he has floated around it becomes easy to label him as a journeyman and dismiss him as a fantasy baseball factor, but that would not be fair. As the champion of fairness in these parts, it is up to me to make a case for Mitch Talbot: 2010 Sleeper!

Talbot has pitched exactly 169 innings in the major leagues. He achieved the bulk of them (159 IP) starting for the Cleveland Indians during the 2010 season. He wasn't an amazing performer but in an AL-only league he was useful. He collected ten wins, a 4.41 era, and 1.49 whip, with peripherals that looked like this: .301 BABIP, 69.4 percent LOB, .73 HR9, 4.97 K9, 3.90 BB9, and a 47.8 percent GB rate. Talbot's overall numbers match his FIP almost exactly. Pretty crappy, eh? Now look at his career minor league numbers:

1.30 whip, 9.05 H9, .62 HR9, 2.64 BB9, and a 7.41 K9 - Nothing amazing there, but consider this. If you throw out a horrible (7.78 era, I usually hate doing that but here it feels right) month of August and his strong finish in September, I think Talbot can help an AL-only pitching staff. He'll also do it for pennies. The Cleveland Indians are going to shock a lot of people in 2010 with their rapid improvement. They have tons of talent and Talbot (and Talbot owners) should benefit.

Plus, he's a warrior who likes to beat on the Red Sox...unbiased Jon

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

2011 Sleeper: Jeff Francis SP Kansas City Royals


At first glance, it doesn't appear that Jeff Francis has ever been a desired fantasy starter. Before you look at his stats you know that he's spent his entire major league career pitching at Coor Field. Coors Field, the longtime bane of fantasy owners everywhere when it comes to pitching, has made many decent pitchers look abominable. Francis is included in that class but he can't blame it all on the thin air.

Francis, at least in the majors, has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Not terrible rates, but nothing to make an ambitious fantasy owner take notice. His HR9 has been all over the place from awesome to abysmal. However he does induce a decent number of groundballs. With skills like these it is pretty easy to understand why with so many teams looking for starters (teams with cash to spend like the Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Cubs) Francis landed on the Kansas City Royals.

But as most of us understand these days, a pitcher's skills are not the entire story. There are park factors, team defense, and luck that factor into things.

Park Factors

Even in the era of the humidor, Coors Field is not exactly a friendly place for pitchers. According to StatCorner.com's Park Factors, Coors Field had the following influence in 2010:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K: 87 / 90
GB:102 / 103
BB:103 / 89
OF: 91 / 93
1B:103 / 104
LD:129 / 128
2B:104 / 120
IF: 95 / 90
3B:121 / 188
HBP: 72 / 99
HR:116 / 117
wOBA:108 / 112

If you were wondering why the Rockies have had such bad luck signing free agent pitchers, here is your first clue. Unless a guy is desperate to line with pockets with greenbacks, free agent pitchers will go elsewhere. Here are the numbers for the new place - Kauffman Stadium:

PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB)
K: 88 / 92
GB:106 / 101
BB:104 / 91
OF:100 / 108
1B:104 / 102
LD:105 / 106
2B:117 / 106
IF: 85 / 93
3B:122 / 126
HBP:115 / 82
HR: 73 / 85
wOBA:104 / 100

What you really want to look at is that homerun factor. At Coors Field 116/117 and in KC, 73/85. The rest is a lot closer than you might think, but a 30 percent swing in homerun rate could do wonders for any pitcher. A plus for Jeff Francis and his potential fantasy value.

Team Defense

Both the Royals and Rockies were bad defensive teams last year. In fact, the Rockies and Royals rate as the worst and second worst defensive team by UZR/150 the last three seasons. The Rockies at -5.8 and the Royals at -5.7 were basically just as bad. Fortunately, the Royals have reason to believe they have significantly improved their overall defense. Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar should all be significant improvements defensively. Very unscientifically, I'm going to say that the Royals should be a good defensive team in 2011. Another plus for Francis and his fantasy value.

Luck

I hate the very idea of luck. Probably because I have a severe lack of it, at least the good kind. It is also almost impossible to measure in any accurate way. francis has a career BABIP of .314 but he's been over that mark four out of six seasons (he missed the 2009 season due to injury). That sounds like bad luck, the horrid defense factors into that as well. His LOB percentage is all over the place but it has mostly been below 70 percent, which looks like bad luck. Inconsistent bullpens and lousy managers don't help, but it was at 64.5 percent in 2010 which looks like real bad luck. With so much bad luck in Jeff's history we can only hope the change of scenery brings brings better luck to Francis and his fantasy owners.
Conclusion

Jeff Francis is not a great pitcher but he is a decent one. Before his injury he proved to be fairly durable. He pitched at near a league average level (that may be a bit generous) in one of the worst pitching environments the world has ever known. In an improved pitching environment he should has a pretty good chance at a career best season. One that fantasy owners in AL-only leagues should like seeing on their stat sheets, and mixed leaguers may want to gamble on in the late rounds or dollar days.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

2011 Sleeper: Brad Emaus 2B (or utility) New York Mets

The New York Mets and many of their fans have been bitching about Luis Castillo and his unsuitability to be their starting second baseman almost since he arrived in New York. It's probably a little unreasonable in intensity... Fortunately, for those New Yorkers and the Mets, the pain is almost over. The new Mets management has options to replace Castillo and it appears that they will. Castillo is in the final season of a four year deal and is scheduled to earn $6 million. He could very well collect it playing for another team. Sandy Alderson appears to be the type of General Manager that will acknowledge a mistake and cut a player rather than continually try to prove he was right.

Reese Havens is the future at the position if all goes well but for now it appears to be a competition between four players: Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Justin Turner and the incumbent Luis Castillo.

Daniel Murphy

Last year the Mets the Mets saw Daniel Murphy as an infield option but injury took him out early in the season and he was not a factor in 2010. But Murphy is now healthy and expected to compete for the job of starting second baseman. To prepare for the 2011 season Murphy signed up for the Dominican Winter League. He batted .320/.395/.515 with four homers and five steals (only caught once) in 103 at-bats. A small sample to be sure, but an encouraging one.

Murphy is a natural third baseman but the Mets believe he can handle second base defensively, or at least that he'll be better in the infield than the outfield. From a scouting report in the Boston Globe:
"He’s a good enough athlete where he can pull it off,’’ said the scout, "but it will take time just to learn all the nuances of the position. I can see their thinking. He can hit. A sound player. This would be a nice conversion for them at a position they need help at."
Murphy has the patience to draw walks. He is also a good contact hitter but swings at a few too many pitches out of the strike zone, which limits his batting average potential. He has decent power for a middle infielder and the speed and ability to steal 15-20 bases in full-time at-bats. Murphy is probably the favorite to win the position based on his talent and major league experience. He's likely to be on the major league roster even if he fails to win the starting job. Murphy seems idealy suited for an injury prone Mets team. He can play several positions and will not embarrass himself with the bat. Those skills are best utilized from the bench.

Justin Turner

The Mets picked up Justin Turner on waivers from the Baltimore Orioles where he was a fan favorite but was apparently unappreciated by the team's management. In his brief Major league appearances Turner has failed to hit effectively. Turner can play all over the infield including short stop and the Mets called him up when Jose Reyes needed a mid-summer break. But despite his major league woes, turner had a very strong season in Triple-A for the Mets, batting .333/.390/.516 with 11 homers and five steals (caught three times) in 312 at-bats. He followed his strong Triple-A stint with a solid performance in the Dominican Winter League where he slashed .318/.382/.438 with a homer in 80 at-bats.

Turner has always shown the ability to hit for a strong batting average. This is based mostly on his strong contact skills, and some ability to draw walks. He has a little pop, nothing to write home about, and doesn't steal bases. His value is in hitting for average and defensive versatility. He is also a very strong hitter against left-handed pitchers. Although he is seemingly popular wherever he goes, Turner may be the unlikeliest candidate for the job based on a lack of power and speed but he has his supporters.

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo was a decent player with the Florida Marlins who brought him up and with the Minnesota Twins during his short stint with them. He has never shown any power. His fanalytic value has always been tied to his batting average and stolen bases. His speed on the bases has gradually evaporated and the batting average comes and goes. For the Mets, Castillo has been bad and worse, two out of three seasons. He still draws a decent number of walks but his average has been so bad that his on-base percentages have been mediocre. The decline in speed has also killed his defense, which has been terrible for the Mets. Even if Castillo had a great Spring Training he would have a hard time winning the faith of the Mets management.

Brad Emaus

The Mets used their first Rule V draft pick on natural second baseman Brad Emaus, so he must stay on the major league roster for the entire season or be offered back to the Toronto Blue Jays. It is difficult to say how determined the Mets are to have Emaus on the 25-man roster. One the one hand, they did draft him and pay the Blue Jays cash to take him off their hands. On the other hand, the Mets (even in their current state) have the money to blow just to take a look at a player.

My hunch says that the Mets are serious about Emaus. Sandy Alderson, is serious about team building and making maximum use of all his resources. His assistant Paul Depodesta is a stats guy and has to love a player like Emaus for reasons that will soon become apparent to you. Another assistant J.P. Ricciardi ran the Blue Jays when Emaus was drafted and likely knows him better than most. I think Emaus will stick around. The question is in what role.

Here's what Emaus had to say about being picked to Baseball America:
“My agent (ACES’ Mike Zimmerman) told me this week that there was a 50-50 chance I’d be taken in the Rule 5, and right now I’m just very ecstatic, excited to be given another chance by the Mets,” Emaus said via phone from the Dominican. Asked to give Mets fans a scouting report, Emaus said, “I’m just a blue-collar guy, a solid guy who has to know the game, has to have some (baseball IQ) because I don’t have great tools. I’m not flashy but I bring my best every day and go out trying to find an edge.”
Emaus spent the 2010 season playing at two levels for the Toronto Blue Jays. In Double-A, he slashed .272/.402/.434 with five homers and five steals in 170 at-bats. After being promoted to Triple-A, he hit .298/.395/.495 with ten homers and eight stolen bases. A nice season that he followed up in the Dominican Winter League (noticing a theme?) where he slashed .268/.345/.449 with one homer and two steals in 127 at-bats.

Emaus has a fantastic eye and a ton of patience at the plate. He has solid power, which is mostly double at this point but there is still room for that to turn to homer power. Right now he probably would hit 10-15 homers in a full season of at-bats with an upside of 20. He has decent not great speed but is a skilled baserunner who will steal 10-15 bases per season. He should hit for a strong batting average based on his eye and very good contact skills. His upside looks a lot like Daniel Murphy's but he also throws in a solid glove at second base. He is sure-handed but with just average range according to scouting reports.

Conclusions

Murphy is clearly the favorite to win the job but Emaus is a dark horse with a ton of support in upper management. Murphy has the most major league experience and his versatility makes him a decent bench option. Emaus has a better glove at second base and gets on base at a tremendous rate, he would make a very good number two hitter behind Jose Reyes and in front of the powerful middle of the Mets lineup.

Luis Castillo is so reviled that it is almost impossible for him to make the team. It is probably more likely that he is cut than he becomes the starter. Justin Turner has some flash but lacks the backing to win the job short of an outstanding spring. There is a case to be made for platooning Turner with Murphy but that is kinda hard to predict.

More Mets News

From MLB.com:
Johan Santana visited Mets medical staff in New York this week and has been cleared to begin a rehab program "which will have him throwing before the start of Spring Training," according to a team spokesman. Santana, 31, had been sidelined since undergoing September surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. His original rehab schedule called for him to begin playing catch in January, leading the spokesman to say, "It's about where we're supposed to be."

Though there is no concrete timetable for his return, the Mets do not expect him back until around mid-season.
Check It Out!

Our friend Jason Collette has moved on to Baseball Prospectus (FanBall.com is leaving us soon) and the link leads to his first piece on a few underrated pitchers that fantasy owners should consider. Check it out!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1/6/1920032/the-mets-options-at-second-base

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/12/02/watching-justin-turner-live-in-december/

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2011/01/12/comparison-brad-emaus-justin-turner/

http://risingapple.com/2010/05/26/mets-claim-justin-turner-from-orioles/

Thursday, January 13, 2011

2011 Sleeper: Robinson Chirinos (and the Garza Trade)

Around here the wait for Spring Training to start can be excruciating. We scour ESPN.com looking for news to hold us over. But it is January and we end up reading about Rex Ryan and his quest to unseat Bill Belichick as the greatest coach in the land and looking at Superbowl predictions. Fortunately for the fantasy baseball junkie, there is NFL football and the never ending search for yet another sleeper.

There has already been plenty of talk about the Tampa Bay Rays making the Matt Garza trade. In case you've been under a rock the deal was Matt Garza, Fernando Perez, and minor league pitcher Zachary Rosscup to the Cubs for pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld, and catcher Robinson Chirinos.

I don't have much to add about Garza himself. I like him in the National League, where he should get a slight boost to his overall numbers. The change in ball parks is not ideal but moving from the AL East to the NL Central should more than make up for it. But you knew all that or at least you've read it on three million different fantasy sites.

Far more interesting to me (for fantasy purposes) are the players coming back to the Tampa Bay Rays and the roles we can project for them, especially catcher Robinson Chirinos. After laboring for years to advance as far as Double-A, Chirinos broke out in 2009 by hitting .294/.396/.519 then built on that in 2010 by hitting .326/.416/.583 with 18 homers. At catcher, anything close to those numbers in the majors would make Chirinos a fantasy stud and an MLB star.

I think we've been mislead about how important Chirinos was to this deal. The Rangers were also hard after Garza. According to Peter Gammons the Rangers tried to acquire Chirinos for the Rays to include him in a Garza deal.
The Rangers were the other team in it to the end. They thought they could get Chirinos from the Cubs, then package him with left-handed pitcher Derek Holland, reliever Frank Francisco and outfielder Engel Beltre, plus pay some of Francisco's contract. Friedman sees everything in the long term, and he thought that in 2012 and '13 -- when Jeremy Hellickson, David Price and Archer could be an extremely formidable front three -- the Rays would have a better chance to keep their window open.
The Rangers players plus Chirinos would have been a much better package in the short term as far as keeping their place atop the AL-East. That the Rangers wanted to acquire Chirinos for them indicates how important he was to the deal from the Rays perspective.

Fantasy owners should keep a close eye on Chirinos during Spring Training. I believe he has an excellent chance of making the team as a utility player if not as a back-up catcher. He has a reputation as a great glove in the infield and at catcher. The Rays definitely see something in Chirinos and a productive player (even a part-time one) who qualifies at catcher is fantasy gold. That's much more significant to fantasy owners than another rookie pitcher on a team loaded with quality arms.

The rest of the deal...

Chris Archer has been discussed a ton as the consensus best prospect in the deal. He was in the top three Cubs prospects by almost every source and for many was number one. He has great stuff and his ceiling is as a front line starter. However, until he improves his control his chances of emerging as more than a quality innings eater are minimal. Though he was at the top of the charts in the Cubs deep system, he is just one of several very good pitching prospects for the Rays. He needs improved control to separate himself from the pack, to his credit his control has improved two straight seasons. He is essentially ready to fill that innings eating role now and could make his major league debut this season.

Outfielder Sam Fuld is an ideal fourth outfielder. He is a solid defender at all three outfield positions and at the plate shows patience and the ability to draw walks. He doesn't have much power but can steal bases. He is much like a more durable and experienced Fernando Perez. Stat guys should love Fuld since he is a stat guy at heart as well. He is a Stanford graduate who majored in statistics and interned at Stats, Inc. Our kind of guy.

Hak-Ju Lee is a few years away but is a very interesting prospect. Keith Law of ESPN likes him more than most and had him ranked first in the Cubs system. He is a very good defensive shortstop with above average speed on the bases. He doesn't have much power and though some believe he will develop some, power is not likely to be a major fantasy asset of Lee's.

Brandon Guyer is an average defensive center fielder with nice speed. He had a very good 2010 season hitting .344/.398/.588 in Double-A with 13 homers, 76 runs, 58 rbi, and 30 stolen bases in 410 plate appearances. He looks like a nice starting option if one of the outfield primaries needs extended time off due to injury.

Other Articles on Robinson Chirinos and the Garza Trade that you may enjoy.
____________________________________________________________________
http://www.espn1040.com/includes/blog/index.php?action=blog&blog_id=12&post_id=1430

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110107&content_id=16408630&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

http://theprocessreport.com/2011/01/07/report-tampa-bay-rays-set-to-trade-matt-garza-to-chicago-cubs/

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110107&content_id=16408870&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_16408870

http://dockoftherays.com/2011/01/09/archer-interviewed-on-minors-and-majors/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sam-fuld-fascinating-4th-of/

Monday, January 10, 2011

2011 Sleeper: Chris Capuano SP New York Mets

Last week the New York Mets acquired Chris Capuano, the former Brewers pitcher. Capuano missed the 2008 season and most of the 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 66 innings with the Milwaukee Brewers last season he seemed to have regained most of his command and effectiveness. He posted a 7.36 K9, 2.86 BB9, 1.23 HR9, and .298 BABIP, all fairly close to his career levels.

Those numbers put Capuano in the solid but not great category. He's someone who in fantasy we hope to slot as our fourth or fifth starter and pray for an ERA around 4.25. He usually delivers. Miller Park, where Capuano has spent most of his career, is a good park for homerun hitters and especially for left-handed power hitters. Which explains some of Capuano's problems with the long ball. However, as a fly ball pitcher, Capuano is always going to see a fair number of balls leave the park.

Capuano's new home greatly reduces homers. A swing from a factor of 118/103 (LHB/RHB) in Miller park to 90/94 in Citi Field Park, quite a large reduction. Limiting Capuano's largest weakness as a pitcher to such a large degree greatly increases the odds of Capuano having a nice 2011 season. If he can return to his former durability and maintain his former effectiveness, Capuano is a great target in NL-only leagues, and a nice late-round pick in mixed leagues.

Park factors from StatCorner.com

Player Stats from FanGraphs.com

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

2011 Sleeper: Eduardo Nunez SS New York Yankees


The 2010 Major League Baseball season is officially over. Congratulation to the San Francisco Giants for winning their first championship since leaving New York for the West Coast. I am certain that few fans (outside of California) expected the Giants to get past the Philadelphia Phillies. Actually winning the World Series was the ultimate fantasy. It makes you want to check the Belmont Sportsbook for the odds. And while it is sad that we won't have much baseball to watch over the winter months, now, in a lot of ways, is when the 2011 Fantasy Baseball season truly begins.

I have missed on plenty of sleepers in the past (you're shocked I'm sure...) and hit on more than my fair share (I despise your doubting chuckles) of undiscovered gems. One of the most galling misses was Robinson Cano. I am an avid follower of the New York Yankees but I did not see him coming. He looked like a mediocre infield prospect without much patience at the plate. A lot like Eduardo Nunez before the last two seasons of rapid development during which he became the Shortstop of the Future(read with a super-cool Space Ghost style voice).

Okay. You may be wondering how I can get excited about a Yankees shortstop prospect when Derek Jeter is as close to a lock to spend his entire career in pinstripes as any active player of the last fifty years. The easy answer is I'm not alone. The Yankees themselves were willing to part with stud catching prospect Jesus Montero in a trade for Cliff Lee back in July, but they refused to sub Nunez for injured infielder David Adams and forced the Seattle Mariners to deal with the Texas Rangers instead. It is easy to assume that Nunez is just a contingency plan in case Derek Jeter does something unexpected like become one of Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles. But according to Bill Madden of the New York Daily News the Yankees could have other ideas:
Though no one in the Yankee high command is ever going to even speculate about the future after 2011 - especially with the very sensitive contract negotiations with Jeter about to get underway – but it's becoming increasingly clear the plan is to phase out Jorge Posada next season when his contract expires, opening up the DH slot for Alex Rodriguez, thereby allowing Jeter to move to third, making room for a more athletic shortstop, which would be the 24-year-old Venezuelan, Nunez, who hit .289 with 50 RBI and 23 stolen bases in 118 games at Triple-A Scranton this season.
Yes, that could very well be just ridiculous speculation on the part of Madden but it makes a lot of sense. General Manager Brian Cashman has been adamant about incorporating more younger talent into the 25-man roster. You have seen evidence of this on the pitching staff (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson) and in the outfield (Brett Gardner). Shortstop has not been an area of great need, but even the most fervent Jeter supporters will admit it would be nice to improve the defensive range at the position. Even if Jeter does stick at shortstop Nunez is likely to see an ever increasing role off the bench - subbing at shortstop and third base as New York's aging superstars spend more time at Designated Hitter and resting on the bench.

So pretend you buy that Eduardo Nunez will receive meaningful at-bats. The question then is about his worth to fantasy owners. Obviously, I believe he will have greater value than his cost. He should come very cheaply because most will not expect him to play at all. Nunez was highly touted as a Five-Tool Prospect when the Yankees signed him as an non-drafted free-agent in 2004, as a 16-year old. Nunez is an excellent contact hitter but has struggled with patience and plate discipline in the past. He has shown very little power but has begun to pack solid muscle weight onto his once skinny frame. He is now a very solid 215 pounds. When drafted he was a frail 155 pounds. Adding power to his game is about learning to wait for his pitch, he has the potential to become a 20-plus homerun hitter. Nunez also has plus speed and is learning to become a better base stealer. He has the potential to steal 20-30 bases annually.

The last two seasons have seen massive improvements from Nunez. Some of this is the result of giving up switch-hitting to bat exclusively right-handed. Although there is still a lot of room for improvement, his plate discipline and selectivity at the plate have improved dramatically. He is waiting for his pitch more often and is more willing to take a walk. Anthony Dorunda of Pinstripes Plus (Scout.com's Yankees Site) received this quote:
"He's matured mentally a lot," hitting coach Butch Wynegar said. "I didn't know him much before but from what I've heard and what I've seen now, he's done a nice job of mentally maturing and he's got a better idea of what he's doing up at the plate. He's done a lot of battling with two strikes. whereas last year he didn't battle as well."
Defensively (relevant to playing time questions), Nunez has great hands, a cannon arm and tremendous range. He struggles with consistency and staying focused on the job at hand. He has struggled with taking bad at-bats into the field, but has shown improvement here as well. He routinely makes plays that many shortstops could not. With maturity he should become a Gold Glove caliber (in the very best sense of the phrase) shortstop in the majors.


When you bet on baseball, play in a big money fantasy leagues, or vote independent you embrace risk. Rostering Eduardo Nunez is a risk but a small one relative to price. I place his ceiling as a player somewhere around Robinson Cano's but with much better stolen base potential. He should eventually hit for a good batting average, average power, and provide great speed and excellent defense. Acquiring him in your fantasy league should be a risk well worth taking.