I heartily concur with Pauly's Picks this week, but there are a few other players I'm looking at as potential free agent pickups, so in the spirit of sharing, here they are:
Jamey Wright - Depending upon the structure of your league and how liberal the free agent policy is, Wright may be worth a bid. In my 15-team mixed, we have a $100 FAAB, and we use the Vickrey auction format, which makes a modest bid a decent play. As of this writing, Eric Wedge says he is sticking with League, but that could easily change. There looks to be a decent chance that Aardsma will not be back at all, which makes Wright even more attractive.
Marc Rzepczynski - I think this guy is a good play in deep "only" leagues, regardless of whether they are keeper leagues or redraft leagues. He has been pitching very well in relief, and I suspect he will wind up in the rotation by the end of the year. I even like him in mixed keeper leagues, where he can probably be picked up for a couple of bucks and could be a potential freeze for 2012.
Laynce Nix, Endy Chavez - These guys have been sitting on waiver wires and free agency lists in many leagues, and there is a chance they can provide you some short term help. Nix should get plenty of at bats for the Nats, at least for a while, and he has been displaying good power and hitting for a good average so far. As for Chavez, many have forgotten he's still in baseball. He's a little long in the tooth, but still has some wheels. The Rangers look like a MASH unit, so Endy should get a good bit of PT and may swipe a few bags for you. Just don't break the piggy bank to grab him.
Louis Coleman - I know that Soria has been one of the safest bets around for the last few seasons, but I like this guy and would not be surprised to see him get a few more save opportunities, despite what management is saying.
Will Rhymes - A terrible start got him sent down, but if your league lets you FAAB guys in the minors, he's not a bad gamble in an "only" league if you have a place to stash him. The guy has absolutely no pop, but he has a good eye and some speed. He could be back up with the big club before long.
So, just a few nuggets. I'll probably be throwing a few ducats at some of these guys myself before the weekend is over.
I am constantly updating the free-agent posts I made last month with all the new signings. To make them easier to find I'm going to periodically update this post to the top of the page. I list all the free agents by position, and include what they signed for and a link to an article with more details.
# New York Yankees: 11/4 # Boston Red Sox: 13/2 # Philadelphia Phillies: 9/1 # Los Angeles Angels: 10/1 # St. Louis Cardinals: 10/1 # Los Angeles Dodgers: 11/1 # Chicago Cubs: 15/1 # New York Mets: 15/1 # Tampa Bay Rays: 15/1 # Atlanta Braves: 18/1 # Colorado Rockies: 18/1 # Chicago White Sox: 22/1 # Detroit Tigers: 25/1 # Florida Marlins: 25/1 # Minnesota Twins: 25/1 # San Francisco Giants: 25/1 # Texas Rangers: 25/1 # Arizona Diamondbacks: 40/1 # Cincinnati Reds: 45/1 # Milwaukee Brewers: 45/1 # Oakland Athletics: 45/1 # Cleveland Indians: 50/1 # Seattle Mariners: 50/1 # Toronto Blue Jays: 60/1 # Baltimore Orioles: 75/1 # Houston Astros: 75/1 # San Diego Padres: 75/1 # Kansas City Royals: 100/1 # Pittsburgh Pirates: 100/1 # Washington Nationals: 100/1
I have been pretty sick this week which the reason for the lack of posts. I have had the flu, combined with a series of migraine headaches that make looking at the computer for more than a few minutes absolute agony. I have the team retrospectives for the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, and New York Yankees almost ready to go. I wrote them out long hand just need to check my stats and type them up. You should see those popping up this week.
Akinori Iwamura is a better player than Freddy Sanchez so the Pirates got that much right at least. Especially when you consider that they received a prospect in Tim Alderson, who should be much better than Jesse Chavez in the long term. If there is one thing that Neal Huntington understands it is that decent relief pitchers are a dime a dozen and with the quantity of arms he has been acquiring filling out his major league bullpen should not be a problem. On the other hand, I thought the Pirates should have given Delwyn Young a larger opportunity at second base where his bat projects very well. But I understand, since they believe defense has to be a priority for them. The Pirates are looking like an extremely good defensive team in 2010 and that should mean good things for their pitchers. Iwamura will remain a decent fantasy player in NL-only leagues and perhaps in extremely deep (think 18-plus) mixed leagues. He does not really pad the stats - a few homers, a few more steals and a good batting average. He should score runs in front of the Pirates power hitters. He won't make or break your fantasy team, but sometimes just not breaking it is the important part.
For Tampa Bay, Iwamura was becoming an expensive spare part. Ben Zobrist has clearly become the Rays second baseman and is also one of their better hitters. Jesse Chavez is a hard throwing reliever. His stats scream mediocre so unless he finds himself in contention for saves he is not worth much to fantasy owners.
The Royals have actually made a pretty good deal for themselves. They save themselves a little money and they acquire two useful players. The odd part is that neither of them is likely to be a starter off the bat. Josh Fields has a powerful bat but strikes out a bit too much. Okay, a lot too much. He does draw some walks just not so many as to negate his strikeouts. But he destroys lefties and is still young enough to develop some patience. He may be able to win a regular job against lefties, perhaps in a platoon with Alex Gordon or by splitting time at first, third and the outfield. or even better yet, he could fill the gapping hole the Royals have had at the designated hitter spot for years. Becoming a DH would relieve the Royals of having to tolerate his below average defense.
Chris Getz has some skills with the bat, he draws walks and makes excellent contact (at least he did in the minors). He knows how to work counts and draw walks. He is an excellent base stealer and a defensive asset at second and adequate at shortstop and third base. He has zero power. Getz is exactly the type of player that the Royals need -- players that can get on base. But he is blocked by Alberto Callaspo for now. Getz is only of use in fantasy if he is getting enough at-bats to steal meaningful numbers of stolen bases. This does not necessary mean he can't get them in some sort of utility role, but not all players can produce in such a role. Mark Teahen becomes the White Sox third baseman, moving Gordon Beckham to second base. His homerun numbers figure to improve just by virtue of hitting in the better park for hitters. Teahen is a player that is frequently put down by the sabermetric crowd for being overpaid and mediocre. In fantasy baseball however, Teahen is a useful player, so it is important not to get caught up in talk that is not as relevant to our game when making choices for your fantasy team. Teahen can play at a few different positions which makes it a lot easier for him to stay in the lineup. He has okay power, walks some, doesn't strikeout to an extreme, and can steal some bases. With better plate discipline he could probably stabilize his place in a lineup. He obviously is more valuable in an AL league than a mixed league but he should not be a priority in either. Teahen is a decent player to fill out your lineup but you would not want to count on him to produce. His price should match that expectation or lack thereof.
Jeremy Hermida was supposed to be the outfield version of Keven Youkilis but it never happened. In the minors he had outstanding on-base percentages and showed signs of becoming a productive outfield bat with solid defensive potential. It could still happen. Everyone is assuming that the Red Sox will acquire a Jason Bay or Matt Holliday and Hermida will find himself the fourth outfielder and that is the most likely scenario. But it is not the only one. The Red Sox went hard after Mark Teixeira last year and failed to sign him. They seem to be low balling Jason Bay (there is more interest in Jason Bay out there than some saber-types believe he deserves) and I think they have much more of chance at Bay than Holliday who many teams seem to have on their radar including teams like the Cardinals, Giants, and Yankees who can all spend money when they feel inspired. The Red Sox could also trade for Adrian Gonzalez and move Youkilis to third base which would lessen the need for a proven power hitter in left field.
Hermida re-discovered some of his plate discipline in 2009. His problem is he refuses to swing the damn bat at pitches in the strike zone. He walked 11.5 percent of the time and struck out 23.5 percent of the time, which also represents an improvement. Moving to Fenway Park should give all his numbers a boost that fantasy owners will like. Hermida has solid opposite field power and should love the Green Monster. The big question is how many at-bats he will see. I think the Red Sox may have another steal on their hands on a par with the David Ortiz acquisition. I hope to get him cheap. Hermida is almost the definition of a post-hype prospect. The Milwaukee Brewers today acquired outfielder Carlos Gomez from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for shortstop J.J. Hardy.
If you did not realize that shortstop J.J. Hardy was on the trade market, you were not paying attention. This is a good trade for both teams. Hardy is a very good defensive shortstop and has been an offensively productive player at times. It would be easy to point to Hardy's low .264 BABIP in 2009 as the source of his problems (and I'm certain that was part of it) but you also need to note that Hardy's career BABIP is just .280 and in his best seasons featured just .280 and .306 BABIP's. We also need to look for a rebound in Hardy's HR/FB which dipped to just 8.3 percent in 2009 after a career high 14.1 in 2008 and a career average of 11.2 percent. It looks like it is very possible for Hardy to rebound from his bad 2009 season in 2010. There is not anything in the numbers (beyond his BABIP and HR/FB) that seems out of his normal range, especially considering the horrible luck he was enduring. In fact his IFFB (infield-flyballs) percentage actually sank to a reasonable level from his typically high marks, which helps make his .264 BABIP look like even more of a disaster level result. The Twins should be very happy with Hardy for the next two seasons at least.
Carlos Gomez hits infield flyballs at a extremely high rate (nearly 20 percent) and this is dragging his BABIP and thus his batting average down. His BABIP is also low for someone with a 19.2 LD percentage. His HR/FB is also extremely low for a player projected to develop power at some point. He hits fly-balls at a pretty typical rate which is not good for the skills that he presently possesses. Gomez is very simply, an unproductive player when he hits the ball in the air. As one of the fastest players in MLB, Gomez should be hitting the ball on the ground and even bunting for hits when he can. The stats feel like a player that is trying to be Carlos Beltran when he should be happy as Michael Bourn or even Juan Pierre. But the news on Gomez is not all bad.
In 2009, Gomez increased his walk rate and reduced his strikeout rate. He swung at fewer balls out of the strike zone and is one of the better defensive center fielders in baseball. He also is said to have a plus arm. Gomez has uncanny speed and with the exception of 2009 has been a very good base stealer. The Brewers have a very good coaching staff that I am certain will make developing Gomez a high priority. While Gomez should not be a high priority for Fantasy Owners he is worthy of some consideration in long term keeper leagues. In an NL-only league I would be happy to own Gomez for a single-digit price as my fifth outfielder. At that price his steals alone should make him a solid value, and it becomes an excellent price should he develop into a worthy keeper.
The Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley reports the Chicago White Sox paid OF Jermaine Dye a $950,000 buyout of his $12 million option for 2010, making him a free agent.
Jermaine Dye is an aging player who is no longer an asset on defense and prone to more frequent minor injuries. His disastrous second half will certainly bring his fantasy price down in 2010. But Dye still has impressive power and will find a team to give him close to full-time at-bats in 2010 which puts him squarely on our fantasy radar. The slugger is a bit closer to end of his career and the results are definitely going to be in decline but if you can get Dye at a reasonable rate there is no reason he can't help a fantasy team hitting in the area of .260/.340/.480 with 25-30 homeruns. The key is acquiring him at the right price, something in the $12-$18 area in AL-only leagues would be alright. Much more than that and the risk becomes much higher than the reward. Outfielder Manny Ramirez notified the Dodgers Friday that he will exercise his $20 million option and return to the team in 2010.
Manny Ramirez is an interesting case for 2010. On the one hand I was convinced that Manny would be a disaster (for the Dodgers and owners that believed he'd play as he did in his late season stint with the Dodgers) in 2009. This was based on his declining numbers as a Red Sox the last few seasons. He wasn't in a massive (dump him while you still can) kind of slump but the more subtle sort that can sneak up on you if you are not paying attention. I do not believe that performance-enhancing drugs have been inflating Manny's numbers. The science just does not support it at this point. But I do believe that their is a less-studied mental/psychological aspect of taking such drugs and that when the drugs are stopped it could have an effect on a player's confidence. This is just a theory, I have no proof of any kind. But if Manny has been using for a while and has now stopped because of the media attention -- that combined with his age-related decline could combine to predict a real disaster on the field. I suggest Fantasy Owners avoid owning Manny unless he comes at a large enough discount that the risk is significantly reduced.
Josh Beckett will definitely have his option picked up by the Boston Red Sox. But this list is a lot stronger than we've been led to believe by the bigger media guys. If I ran a team like the Washington Nationals I'd be all over Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb (if the D'Backs are actually dumb enough to let him go), Rich Harden, John Smoltz, Justin Duchscherer, and RandyWolf. Sure, there is a bunch of risk there, but the upside is incredible and the discounts should be substantial.
Obviously, some of these guys won't actually become available. I think Magglio Ordonez, for example, has earned his option by hitting his target at-bat total. It seems unlikely that would opt out of the deal after his not so hot season but i suppose stranger things have happened. The big market teams will all be chasing Matt Holliday and to a slightly lesser extent Jason Bay. But there are a bunch of very solid players on this list. Bobby Abreu is aging but still a very effective player. Rick Ankiel has monster power potential. Marlon Byrd finally looks like that star player he could have been years ago. Johnny Damon isn't much on defense any longer but he's still a nice leadoff hitter. I bet Brian Giles has some years left in him if he can only escape from Petco Hell. Vlad. Manny. You could add some serious runs to your lineup picking from this collection.
Key Sleepers: Rick Ankiel, Brian Giles, Austin Kearns
More on Aroldis Chapman, a hat tip to Drunken Jays Fans for posting this video for me to steal. Aroldis is in New York waiting to meet with the Yankees Brass. As much as I'd love to see him on the Yanks I think it would be even cooler to see him sign with the Washington Nationals. They could sign El Duque to a minor league contract and try to acquire Jose Contreras and they'd be nice filler as the team waited for its prospects to develop. It would also give the Nats two of the best pitching prospects in the sport.
Albertin Aroldis Chapman de la Cruz Bats: Left Throws: Left Height: 6' 4" Weight: 185 lb. Born: February, 28, 1988 in Cayo MambÃ, Frank PaÃs, HolguÃn, Cuba
* Has a wife and young daughter as well as parents and two sisters still living in Cuba * Holds the Cuban National Series record for fastest pitch thrown in a game at 102 mph. * Has a fastball (two seam or four seam), sinking fastball, curveball, slider, changeup and a forkball * Led the Cuban National Series twice in strikeouts in 2006-2007 and 2008-2009. * Was recognized as the top left handed pitcher in Baseball World Cup in 2007. * Defected from the Cuban National Team on July 1, 2009 while participating in the World Port Tournament in Rotterdam, Netherlands * Signed a representation agreement with Athletes Premier International (API) for contract negotiation and marketing on July 13, 2009 * Obtained provisional passive residency status in the country of Andorra on September 21, 2009 * On September 25, 2009 was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball following their investigation and the United States Department of the Treasury licensed Chapman as an unblocked National of Cuba
2007 Baseball World Cup - Silver Medalist Game G JP IP R ER H SO BB HR WP VS. SO KOREA 1 0 7 2 2 6 9 1 0 0 VS. JAPAN 1 0 8 1 1 3 11 2 0 1 TOTALS 2 15 3 3 9 20 3 0 1
2009 World Baseball Classic G GS CG W L SHO SV IP H R ER ERA HR HB BB SO WHIP HLD GF 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 6.1 6 4 4 5.68 0 0 4 8 1.58 0 0
I would love to see what Adrian Beltre can do when he isn't in a stadium that kills right-handed power hitters. The Red Sox should sign him. Think of the damage he could do there. Would anyone sign Jerry Hairston to be a true starter?
You won't load up on offense by signing any of these guys but a few of them had interesting seasons. Marco Scutaro had a second good season as a regular and deserves a couple of years from the Toronto Blue Jays. Adam Everett was less Everett-y than usual. I am really curious to see where Bobby Crosby signs. He was supposed to be quite a bit better than his results the last six years.
I know Joe Torre was dumb enough to play Ron Belliard over Orlando Hudson since the former joined the Dodgers. But could he be dumb enough to convince the Dodgers to sign Belliard long term? There are some decent vets on this list but no one that makes you want to clear a space or spend a ton of money. If my team had an opening Hudson would be my first choice. If I were strapped for cash I'd go with Placido Polanco.
Hank Blalock and Russell Branyan had big years in 2009. But will they be able to find the at-bats (or stay healthy) in 2010? Bookmark this page as it will be updated as players sign or re-sign with teams.
Seattle Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima has chosen to opt out of his contract with the Mariners and become a free agent. His name is thus added to the below list of potential 2010 Free Agents. The list is short and frankly Johjima is now probably the best name on the list. I assume that Johjima would be a Class A Free Agent but I'm not sure of that yet. It may not matter because Johjima is saying he wants to return to Japan to finish his career.
"After lots of very deep thought and deliberation, I have decided to return home to resume my career in Japan," Johjima said in a statement released by the Mariners. "I have had a wonderful experience competing at the major-league level. The last four years have been extraordinary, with great teammates and great coaches. I will always be indebted to the Mariners organization for giving me the opportunity to follow my dream. This was a very difficult decision, both professionally and personally. I feel now is the time to go home, while I still can perform at a very high level. Playing close to family and friends was a major factor. I will miss the Seattle fans and their gracious support. Thank you all."
Bookmark this post as it will be updated as players begin to sign or re-sign with teams.
The Orioles on Tuesday, November 10th, signed minor league free agent catcher Michel Hernandez, who played in 35 games for the Tampa Bay Rays last season, batting .242 with a homer and 12 RBIs. He was 9-for-46 (.196) with six RBIs in 55 games with Triple-A Durham in 2009.
One of the most important things that Fantasy Owners must do in the off-season is track the players who change teams. New teams mean different park factors, different roles, and new teammates and coaches. The relief pitchers on this list include very few healthy, proven closers but several very good pitchers that could fill the role for a team trying to avoid the expense of a more proven ninth inning veteran. There are also several pitchers listed here as relievers who could find themselves in the mix as starters. Bookmark this post as it will be updated as players sign or re-sign with teams.
Key Sleepers: Joaquin Benoit, J.J. Putz, Tom Gordon
The Rockies moved quickly to fortify their bullpen Thursday (Nov.4th), signing Matt Belisle and Randy Flores to one-year deals. Here are the details of their contracts obtained by The Denver Post. Belisle agreed to a one-year, $850,000 deal that is not fully guaranteed because it’s an arbitration contract. He can make an additional $275,000 in incentives for games, beginning at 55 games and capping at 75. He can also make $200,000 for games finished in the event he ends up closing, starting at 40 games. Proctor will sign a minor league contract with the Atlanta Braves that includes both a minor league salary and a major league salary. Terms of the contract were not released by Rodgers, however, he did say the deal is similar to what Proctor had with Florida this season — that was a one-year contract worth $750,000 that included $250,000 in incentives.
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times wrote of Cuban Defector Aroldis Chapman last week:
Envision a 21-year-old pitcher — left-handed, no less — that has lit up radar guns to the tune of 102 mph, drawing raves from scouts as the southpaw Stephen Strasburg.Now consider that this pitcher is not just a myth, but a living, breathing entity, who can be found these days in, of all places, Madrid.And just one other thing: He's a free agent, poised to sign in the upcoming weeks with a major-league team.
Chapman is going to be one of the hottest free agents in the market this fall/winter. Teams are already lining up to make chair-breaking bids. The problem is Chapman unlike the last Cuban pitcher to draw this much interest, Jose Contreras, is not a finished product. He is a prospect. He is extremely raw with little beyond his extreme fastball to his arsenal. His control is just not good at this by most reports.
Fantasy owners with deep minor league systems may well want to take a chance with Chapman. Heck, I recommend that they do. But if you're thinking of Chapman as a player ready to make an impact in 2010 you need to re-think things. He's more Kendry Morales than Contreras.
According to a report in the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, Trevor Hoffman is very close to re-signing with the Milwaukee Brewers. Both sides have been quoted as interested in another deal so this should come as no surprise to Brewer fans. In fact, ESPN's Buster Olney is saying that the deal is done. A one year deal for $8 million that keeps the closer in a Brewer uniform.
Hoffman had another very solid season despite common belief that his skills were fading at the end of the 2008 season. Hoffman converted 37 of 41 save chances and finished with a 3-2 record, 1.83/2.63 ERA/FIP, 8.00 K9, 2.33 BB9, 0.33HR9, and a 0.85 GB/FB ratio. He should be a solid mid-range closer for fantasy owners in 2010.
Under Not Fantasy Sports But Still Awesome:
Joe Posnanski is my favorite baseball writer. He is the favorite of a lot of serious baseball fans. He has a new book out called "The Machine" which you can buy through the link below. You'll not only be buying a great book but supporting this site (and a great baseball writer) if you use this link. Thanks.
Some people root for baseball teams. I root for baseball books, for two reasons. One, a fair number of my friends have written baseball books, so rooting for a book is like rooting for a friend. And two, I've written a few books myself, and know what it's like to pour one's life into something for many months and wind up eliciting hardly a yawn from the Big Wide World.Anyway, I'm rooting for Joe Posnanski's new book, The Machine, about the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, which was officially published today. Joe and I haven't yet met, but I do know he's an easy guy to root for, all the more because I've read his book. Well, I thought I knew Pete Rose and Johnny Bench already -- and I did -- but now I know them better.
There are memorable teams in baseball—and then there are utterly unforgettable teams like the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. From 1972 to 1976, the franchise known as the Big Red Machine dominated the National League, winning four division crowns, three league pennants, and two World Series titles. But their 1975 season has become the stuff of sports legend.In The Machine, award-winning sports columnist Joe Posnanski captures all of the passion and tension, drama and glory of this extraordinary team considered to be one of the greatest ever to take the field. Helmed by Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson, the lineup for the '75 Reds is a Who's Who of baseball stars: Pete Rose, Ken Griffey, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, George Foster, Cesar Geronimo, and Dave Concepcion. Like a well-oiled engine, the '75 Reds ended the regular season with 108 wins and finished a whopping 20 games ahead of their closest division competitor, the Los Angeles Dodgers.But that remarkable year was not without controversy. Feuds, fights, insults, and run-ins with fans were as much a part of the season as hits, runs, steals, and strikeouts. Capturing this rollicking thrill-ride of a story, Posnanski brings to vivid life the excitement, hope, and high expectations that surrounded the players from the beginning of spring training through the long summer and into a nail-biting World Series, where, in the ninth inning of the seventh game, the Big Red Machine fulfilled its destiny, defeating the Boston Red Sox 4-3.As enthralling and entertaining as the season and players it captures, The Machine is the story of a team unlike any other in the sport's glorious history.
